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PTH,

I have been watching it, but I don't think you can categorically say that it's broken that trendline until close of play. At the moment I think it's just piercing it intraday, although I am inclined to suspect that it'll be a major event if the price does close below the line tonight. I think a lot of real money players who have been long since July time when it broke the previous downtrend will start to rethink their approach.

I'm not overly bothered by the shallower trendline you mention though, as I can't see too much significance in it. The market was certainly making a big song and dance a few weeks ago when the price broke down through the much steeper trendline from mid-June to late-October.

Hiltops, certainly agree with yr comments re the trendline support, I imagine much will depend on the US this afternoon, not that many will be at work!

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2010/11/til-government-debt-do-us-part.html">
A summary of debt positions in a number of countries.

Just who the hell do you think you are Mr Van Rumpoy?

Go Nige!

Any feedback on the new calendar?

Oh, and December Currency Trader mag is now online.

Absolutely brilliant Hilary, thankyou. I only dabble in cable occasionally, trying to get my head round it, so your calendar will be v. useful

It seems a bit tidier than the DailyFX/FXCM one that I had there previously. For anybody who hasn't realised, you can also click on any of the news events for a more detailed explanation of what the event is all about.

You could do that on the previous incarnation :-)

Hey that's super fast and super smart Hiltops!
A lot more so than youknowwhose ;)

My post was for the benefit of people who didn't know that, Skinners. I figured that you'd have already sussed that one out.

I think this calendar is probably fed from the same source as the previous one, but without all the adverts. It's also split over several pages which helps to keep the header a bit smaller and tidier.

Does anybody know if it's possible to have a variable height for the iFrame so that it doesn't invoke the scrollbars when an event is clicked and the page length increases?

:-) yes the loading is much better.

It's the flash in the old FXCM adverts which killed the pageload speed.

Hi Chocopops!

Nice header, Hil.

Morning, Choccie!

11 for 11: Potential risks to watch for in the new year

These are not predictions; these are potential risks that could crop up in the new year.


Here goes:

Potential dollar pluses

1/ European sovereign debt crisis intensifies*
2/ ECB drops vow to remove stimulus; adds liquidity instead*
3/ UK adds to QE to offset economic drag of fiscal austerity
4/ Chinese property bubble bursts
5/ US yields rise as US economic recovery gains strength
6/ US adopts comprehensive long-term fiscal program modeled after Simpson-Bowles Commission recommendations*
7/ USD retains and builds on reserve currency status as central banks shun euro and reduce existing holdings
8/ Geopolitical uncertainty in Iran, Korean Peninsula revive USD safe-haven status*
9/ BOJ, BOE, ECB embark on expansive new monetary easings, including QE
10/ BOJ joins Asian neighbors in actively managing the JPY FX rate
11/ Commodities bubble bursts as fear of dollar collapse abates.

Potential dollar minuses

1/ US and Japan join global sovereign debt crisis; gold and other metals benefit
2/ US yields fall as US economic recovery flags; deflation fears revive
3/ UK economy rebounds despite austerity; BOE raises rates to contain inflation*
4/ US yields soar as government fails to get a handle on fiscal policy and market loses confidence
5/ Risk appetites rise, fueled by a rush of global central bank liquidity sending metals, agricultural products and energy sharply higher*
6/ Emerging markets continue to grow steadily, drawing capital from developed markets
7/ JPY resumes climb versus USD and Asian currencies as Japan keep money at home rather than seek higher returns abroad
8/ European sovereign debt crisis abates; banks replenish capital
9/ China engineers a soft landing, restraining inflation without damaging asset markets
10/ India overtakes China, becomes the market focus in emerging markets
11/ EUR regains market confidence, dollars share of reserves declines

January's Currency Trader mag is here.

Hils, or anyone else, have you had a go with Alpari's Autochartist?

I'm really quite happy with the settings I use in Metatrader, but anything else that can spot a pattern is worth a peep. I'm going to look at the videos tonight but wondered what anyone else thought.

I had an email in about it this morning, Floss. I've downloaded the MT4 plugin but I haven't attached it to a chart yet.

It's not what I'd call a plugin as such and is instead simply a custom indicator which recognises trends and chart patterns and you should be able to run it on a chart in conjunction with your existing settings (although I don't think it will run on any chart faster than M15 from memory). It looks like it checks your Alpari live account name and password on their server, so it will probably only work on Alpari accounts although, like I say, I haven't tried it and I'm only guessing that's the case.

I'll maybe get some time to look at it properly later.

What I did notice about it though is that it is using its DLL to identify support and resistance levels which the EX4 uses to draw lines on the chart. Normally I would expect to see the EX4 copying the rates across to the DLL for it to process its calculation, but that doesn't seem to be happening which struck me as a bit odd seeing there is a straightforward MQL function called ArrayCopyRates() which allows this to happen.

This must mean that the DLL is either obtaining the rates from a connection with the Alpari server or there could be a team at work in Alpari's offices who are manually identifying the support and resistance levels.

Well, been a bit busy tonight, but thanks for that insight Hils. Love the idea of a bunch of peeps with rulers and pencils back at Alpari drawing the lines then sticking them into the system!

PS Want to go to Las Vegas with FXCM? You can, virtually. It's a whole load of talks from their 2010 Las Vegas expo. Only a few interesting ones there imho, but still worth a look.

When I looked into it, Floss, I learned that Autochartist isn't the sole work of Alpari, and instead it is actually a product in its own right (see here) which is being licenced to different brokers. That would explain why Alpari are only prepared to give it away free to their live clients.

I did try it quickly yesterday afternoon, but I wasn't set up with a live Alpari account on the machine I was using at the time, so it wouldn't work. I'll maybe try it on a different machine today which has got a live Alpari account set up on it.

Because the lines are being drawn by Autochartist, they're possibly not using the Alpari prices. I noticed some code in the EX4 which converts the format of the symbol string, so I guess it is converting it into a format recognised by Autochartist. I'm a bit disappointed to learn that there isn't a "Ruler Team" at large though.

:o)

It will be interesting to see how effective its trendlines are, as it's something that we've been trying to produce for sometime, but it's very difficult to achieve with a rule-based system because the rules for generating and drawing the trendlines don't work 100% of the time.

Thanks Hil. My live account is with Alpari so I'll attach it to some charts and see what happens.