cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
spitfire43
- 15 Feb 2008 10:07
- 1098 of 21973
lesson learnt
jumped in too early at 5884 short after trade going against me by 25 points, just managed to close out for 4 point gain. should have waited for rsi signals to short.
had 44 point stop/loss, which shows how important it is to widen the stops in these markets.
cynic
- 15 Feb 2008 10:29
- 1099 of 21973
i don't think you did ..... market had a surprisingly strong opening, but clearly cannot now hold it .... similarly, Dow indications were initially surprisingly strong, but also now slipping
bhunt1910
- 15 Feb 2008 10:43
- 1100 of 21973
Thanks for advice.
Tried a smaller bet with a wider stop loss this morning and went long on FTSE.
So far so good. Had I adopted yesterdays strategy - I would have been stopped out already.
cynic
- 15 Feb 2008 10:45
- 1101 of 21973
personally, i think long is brave, but as always, i could easily be wrong!
spitfire43
- 15 Feb 2008 10:54
- 1102 of 21973
short signal at 5888, on rsi. lets see if lesson has been learnt.
but no position just yet. just testing.
bhunt1910
- 15 Feb 2008 10:56
- 1103 of 21973
closed - just before the drop with small loss
spitfire43
- 15 Feb 2008 10:59
- 1104 of 21973
well stopped bh, looking a bit negative now.
cynic
- 15 Feb 2008 12:08
- 1105 of 21973
though the bulk of my portfolio remains long, am very pleased indeed to have taken profits and also to have hedged bets with shorts on dow, ftse and sola .... shall also look at wpp
BigTed
- 15 Feb 2008 12:08
- 1106 of 21973
Just thought of a great idea... would you all like to know which positions i take, so you can all place one in the other directon...???!!! it should give you profits within seconds...!
bhunt1910
- 15 Feb 2008 12:51
- 1107 of 21973
No No - thats my game.Lol
BigTed
- 15 Feb 2008 13:25
- 1108 of 21973
Have long running on euro and stirling vs dollar, as news that Bernanke is prepared to lower US rates further should cause the dollar to weaken further, also Japan's decision to hold rates at 0.5% and growth in economy at 3.7% might be worth opening one on the Yen...
cynic
- 15 Feb 2008 13:42
- 1109 of 21973
be aware that euro rates are also likely to be cut, especially now the krauts have had to own up to their own sub-prime shambles .... everyone knew, but as with bse, they refused to admit
Falcothou
- 15 Feb 2008 13:48
- 1110 of 21973
Hi Big Ted know the feeling though it depends on the timeframe. My favourite trading disaster is to go contrarian thinking something can't possibly go higher/lower, it invariably does. I think in these times of massive volatility small stakes relative to account size give a much bigger timeframe for wrong trades to come very right indeed! Cynic does however have an uncanny instinct into forecasting massive FTSE / DOW moves wwhich must give him the confidence to go large!
cynic
- 15 Feb 2008 14:01
- 1111 of 21973
you flatter me .... as i have said before, i have managed to lose money with the best of them ...... however, almost more by luck than judgement (not true really), i quite often manage to read the markets correctly .... that is helped enormously that my real job (lol) mean i have live prices in front of me throughout the day ..... trading the indices without constant watching is not only scary, but downright dangerous! .....
only occasionally, and then with what feels like good reason, do i leave index positions open overnight ..... i did so last night and was staggered to see a firm opening here and ditto indications in NY .... in fact, and again because i could watch, i let those run and have been proven correct to have done so.
in case NY suddenly jumps at opening, though i doubt it, i shall probably put in a trailing stop and also against FTSE
BigTed
- 15 Feb 2008 14:03
- 1112 of 21973
Prob little chance,Greenspan just given bearish report, indicating he thinks 50% chance of recession, doom and gloom basically, i have no position in market but i i had to bet it would be on a bigger drop his afternoon...
stroreysj
- 15 Feb 2008 14:09
- 1113 of 21973
Its not worth the effort to be glued to indices and still get whip sawed. I have never been so stressed and put so many hours in until I started playing with these things. Take stress out of the situation and make money both directions and get a restful nights sleep. Buy stocks long and sell 50% calls on a spreadbet. If it goes down you make 50% but still have the stock if it goes up you halve your gains. Having lost so much in the last 6 month I would rather have half of something than a big fat loss, even if it is only a paper loss.
BigTed
- 15 Feb 2008 14:17
- 1114 of 21973
will keep a (watchful) eye on the construction sector. Prob bit early yet, but they have had a big decline now, and should start seeing benefits of the falling interest rate here later in the year...
cynic
- 15 Feb 2008 14:24
- 1115 of 21973
strorey .... indices are not designed to be restful! .... it's their very volatility that makes them good to trade
stroreysj
- 15 Feb 2008 14:34
- 1116 of 21973
Cynic im not disputing that. Maybe it was new toy which i over played when i set up the IG account but I spent my entire day watching tick by tick switching to a gambling mentality rather than researching value stories and effectively trading and making money. Respect to anyone who can do both
cynic
- 15 Feb 2008 14:53
- 1117 of 21973
i don't do research ... far too idle