rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

just as well, because the man or woman on the street is going to find it increasingly difficult to survive in an environment that is costing more and more by the day.

But wait a minute, all that money washing around doesn't get anywhere near the man in the street, its makeing the rich richer whilst trying to give the impression that economies are in good shape.

When the BoE, FED, ECB and the rest of those idiots turn the taps off watch out.

But leaving all that aside it would appear that the dumb index would like to have another stab at recent highs

not exactly true; much of that money will belong to pension funds and the like ..... though i agree markets are probably over-cooked, world economies are now on a recovery tack - yes, i agree that the eurozone still stinks though uk isn't as bad whatever fred and others like to blather about

and the percentage of the great unwashed that have made provision for their pension future?

as I said, the rich get richer.

including you in that case, even if you rarely wash

Uk has lost it's triple "A" rating, moodies down grade.,.

(Reuters) - "Britain suffered its first ever sovereign ratings downgrade from a major agency on Friday when Moody's stripped the country of its coveted top-notch triple-A rating, dealing a major blow to Chancellor George Osborne.
Moody's said weak prospects for British economic growth, which have thrown the government's deficit reduction strategy off course, lay behind its decision to cut the rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa."


I wonder if this will now be the trigger for the FTSE correction?

1) It was only Moody's. S&P are the only agency who really matter.
2) It had been widely expected and reported. Agencies historically downgrade a country's banks and then downgrade the country itself. UK banks were downgraded last summer.
3) A UK downgrade won't halt the Yen outflows. With his monster printing press, Shinzo is still winning the currency war.
4) Weaker sterling resulting from the downgrade should help UK exporters. As cyners suggested above, the UK economy is actually in quite good shape right now (albeit economic indicators don't necessarily show this because they lag too far behind the curve). The market is far more street-wise than a bunch of brain-dead economists though, and already realises this.
5) None of the above is likely to prevent a knee-jerk reaction early next week.

praise from hilary - whatever next?!

as far as i can determine, the french economy is a total shambles, scarcely helped by the loony gov't they chose to vote into power, and i think the germans are hiding a lot of bad stuff - but then i've thought that for years
the other eu countries are pretty much "also-rans"

much as fred and others deride our gov't's austerity measures, i remain convinced that the bitter medicine quickly administered was the correct course of action ...... labour's alternative of a slow drip-drip tightening (and let's add in some populist stuff by raising taxes against the better off) would have been disastrous

meanwhile, the chinese economy continues to thrive and india also seems to be pulling out of its slump ...... usa continues to work the indian rope trick and south america seems to be chugging along ok

I can be nice sometimes, cyners. It takes enormous effort though, so don't come to expect it too often.

I disagree about China though. Unfortunately, they built their economy far too rapidly by pegging their yuan to the weak greenback which enabled them to flood export markets with cheap crap. Their export markets have all but disappeared (vis-a-vis Baltic Dry Index), yet they continue to buy up all the world's minerals at the top of the market which they must be stockpiling somewhere. Their economic figures are almost certainly manipulated to make things look better than they really are, and rumours abound of massive car lots full of unsold new cars which have been left idle for years.

Imo, all of the BRICS remain an accident waiting to happen. When they crash, they will invariably take Australia down too, as their export market consists of selling minerals to China and kangaroo meat to Lidl. Once they go, hopefully the world will be able to move forwards once again.

Going back to the downgrade and the timing of the announcement, I reckon it would've cost less than $100m of real money to move cable down 2 cents in thin trade last night. That didn't happen, so I don't know if that carries any significance.

Put up on a pedestal, only to be knocked off again in the next post. Tough break Mr C. ! ;o)
The bit of logic which I don't understand is why you (hilary) dismiss any suggestions as to 'if & when' the FTSE is likely to correct itself, arguing that there is no point in trying to second guess when the current trend is going to run out of steam, yet in every other global market you are trying to do exactly that! What is the difference apart from the fact that that they are comparitively micro v macro? Surely it is better to be forewarned/forearmed of a possible reversal in any market?

Harry,

What I've been saying for weeks is that there are big currency wars going on. Shinzo's free money has been coming to the UK. You've evidenced a big rise in the FTSE since last summer, despite the fact that a ratings downgrade has been on the cards all that time. In other words, the market has been looking far deeper than a mere ratings downgrade and, as bitter pill as it is to swallow for many, the market believes that Osborne's economic policies are the best.

I did qualify my earlier post by saying in point 5 that "None of the above is likely to prevent a knee-jerk reaction early next week".

As for China, it's possible of course that they might not crash. For that to happen, the west would need to resume imports again pdq. Or China would need to go 'self-sufficient' and start using its own output rather than relying on cheap exports to inflate their economy. Seeing as the infrastructure work which has been done in the country over the last decade has focused primarily on developing major cities and, as a country, they are deeply divided with a mobile labour force and an oppressive administration, I find it difficult to see how that scenario can happen.

hils - i agree that one should trust the chinese and their gov't even less than others (hard to do, admittedly!) ..... even so, while accepting that most chinese companies are controlled and manipulated by the gov't, they don't go on a shopping spree for base chemicals and commodities just for a laugh

for ourselves, we have seen a significant increase in biz out of saudi, primarily in petro-chem and derivatives ..... i confess i don't know where it all ends up, but as much of it is fairly low value, my guess is india

the other growth area is in oilfield and petro-chem plant development in west africa and the interest in LNG (the genuinely clean alternative to fossil fuels) is now growing apace ..... that creates its own new industry

all in all, lots of strange little things all starting to go in the right direction, and of course usa employment and its housing market are also slowly coming back to life

aide memoire for monday morning
at time of writing ....
cash dow - 13995 = -7 from close
cash ftse - 6355 = +19 from close

HG+HC index taken a big tumble this morning not least because its cousin C+M has limped north .... not sure why unless a lot of companies within HG+HC have gone ex div ....

any idea skinny?

Look at RB. - glad I sold 75% :-)

why the big hit there, not that i hold any?
also glad i hold C+M and not HG+HC!

The Yanks doing their normal thing to foreign companies.

GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 32.3K consensus 34.2K previous 33.6K