acambis, acm

the fortunes of this smallpox vaccine company changed after 11/9 upon receiving 500m contract from the usa army to supply it with smallpox vaccine. the stock stood at 120p before it hit the roof at just under 400p early year 2002 gapping as it rose by some 90p that was accompanied with a mighty volume spike of 12m (average daily volume is well below the 1 m mark, today stood at near quarter a million most of which has been buy trades, yet the stock managed to stage another dropping day! someone must have something cooking here!)

there is news now that the usa intends to have all its citizens vaccinated against smallpox. meanwhile the company has stated that it expects to report top end revenue when it posts its preliminary figures by march 11.

you would expect the share price for acm to be racing, but it aint so. in fact the opposite is true. over the past 5 trading days the share price has dropped on every day that culminated with the biggest of such drops today, 4.2% to take the stock to 227.5! the top of the support zone of 223-227. the spread has been 4%, reasonable for a stock of this nature.

9 and 18 days smas both heading down rather steeply. the 150 ema has plotted a shallow saucer shape, now at the rim which is flat. 9 day sma has just crossed over the 150 ema having had just crossed over the 18 day sma earlier on. so there is some downside forces left in the stock.

rsi commenced its rise from near the bottom. slow stochs ranging flat at the bottom. macd histogram had bottomed up and begun to rise when these series of price drops commenced 5 trading days ago. so we have divergence.

apart from the moving averages, the other negative aspect is the m formation that straddles august and mid september last year.

this stock should be on every canny traders watch list. has the potential to explode up starting with one mighty up gap to take it back to its previous high and beyond.

From memory the UK government aren't getting their stocks from Acambis, but from Powderjet. If you remember there were accusations that powderject got the contract over acambis because powderject gave a large donation to the labour party.

The thing is the UK order is small fry compared to the US order and other US orders

Results due out this week - should make things interesting

Judging from this Saturdays FT article there could be a silver lining to Acambis losing their court case with BTG. It apparently removes uncertainty, and opens the way for a bidder to step in. I like the notion of a racy takeout price.

Acambis left vulnerable after BTG settlement

Acambis has settled a legal dispute with BTG, the intellectual property group. But the deal makes Acambis, one of the UK biotechnology industrys few recent successes, more vulnerable to a takeover.

In an out-of-court settlement, BTG is understood to have agreed to receive the relatively small sum of 12m from Acambis now, rather than run the risk of having to negotiate with any large acquirer of the vaccine-maker in the near future.

Some close to the dispute said One hears the company is up for sale and thinking of quite a racy takeout price, although Acambis sources strongly denied this.

They said the company, which has more than 100m cash after supplying smallpox vaccines to the US government, may attract interest because of its strong balance sheet and valuable assets, but was not seeking buyers.

The company is also vulnerable because of the recent decision by CE John Brown to step down. Russel Reynolds, the headhunter, has been hired to find a successor. Rolf Stahel, ousted last year as CE of Shire Pharmaceuticals, is understood to have been approached.

Genghis Lloyd-Harris, CSFB analyst, said the settlement of the dispute about whether Acambis was contractually obliged to pay BTG 2% of its turnover increased its value to bidders by removing uncertainty. He said The CEO is stepping down with no announced successor, its high quality assets are significantly undervalued, and M&A consolidation is picking up.

Bidders could include Akzo Nobel, which this week said it was looking to break into the human vaccine market. Others could include Merck, Aventis, Wyeth and GlaxoSmithKline.

If 290 support goes you'd best get the bin bags. Woof!!!!

interesting last comment from 3 years ago !!

Anyway stock has been trashed deservedly so -- some big seller around but seems to be meeting buyers today ahead of a ruling due tomorrow

ruling likely to positive for acm -- expect bounce tomorrow

ruling delayed -- bounce more unlikely short term?

but bid moving up !1

:-)



UPDATE 1-Acambis agrees 276 mln stg bid from Sanofi Pasteur
AFX


LONDON July 25 (Reuters) - Vaccine maker Acambis Plc said on Friday it had agreed to a takeover offer from Sanofi Pasteur that values the British company at around 276 million pounds ($547.8 million).

Acambis said the bid from Sanofi Pasteur -- a unit of Sanofi Aventis, the world's third-largest pharmaceutical company -- was at 190 pence in cash for each Acambis share.

Shares in Acambis, which in April won a 10-year contract worth $425 million to supply the U.S. government with smallpox vaccine, closed 0.9 percent higher at 116 pence before the news.

'This mutually beneficial acquisition is a logical step building upon Sanofi Pasteur and Acambis' decade long partnership on key projects to develop and market vaccines of the future,' Wayne Pisano, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Sanofi Pasteur, said in a statement.

Acambis Chairman Peter Fellner welcomed the offer, which was at a 62.5 percent premium to where the stock ended on Thursday.

'Sanofi Pasteur, which is one of the world's largest vaccines companies, will benefit strategically not only from Acambis' pipeline and technologies, but also from its significant U.S.-based R&D and manufacturing infrastructure,' Fellner said.

(Reporting by Mike Elliott; Editing by Quentin Bryar) ($1=.5038 Pound) Keywords: ACAMBIS SANOFIPASTEUR/

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