Gold
	S&P &Futures (Click for latest)	Pre Market Futures (7:30)
		FTSE	-6
		TechMark	-4
		DAX	-8
Hang Seng +-	Nikkei +-	DOW	-25
		S&P	-3
		Nasdaq	-5.5

 

News Headlines:    JJB Sports says like-for-like turnover from stores open for more than a year fell 3.4 percent in the 23 weeks to July 6 and it expects trading to remain challenging. Competition from the rapidly expanding Decatholon chain may be to strong a challenge for JJBSIG Builders merchant has posted a nine percent jump in first-half like-for-like sales and expects market conditions to remain similar in the next six monthsKingfisher sells non-core French specialist builders merchant subsidiary, Dubois Materiaux, for Euro 100 million Anite Group Friday reported underlying profit before tax of GBP18.6 million, down from GBP30.0 million a year ago, for the year to 30 April 2003. The CEO said: "This has been a year of transition for Anite and the current financial year is expected to be one of consolidation. The current year has started slowly but in line with our expectations. As markets remain tough with no immediate signs of improvement, a similar trading pattern to last year is expected in the current year. Calendar All GMT United Kingdom (F)inals (I)nterim United States (Click Flag) Europe & World Fri 11th Anite Group (F), Glotel (F) PHS (AGM), BAA June Traffic Cable and Wireless PLC AGM JJB Trading Statement, SIG Trading Statement General Electric Co (Q2) 13.30 June Producer Price Index 13.30 May Trade Balance   Good Trading!   David@FTSEDOW.com    www.FTSEDOW.com            Pivot Calculator

little woman.

Have a nice hol. Hope to be here in two weeks unless I'm wiped out!!

Thanks Druid, expect to return absolutely knackered - but when you work hard, you expect to play hard too!

Better not be wiped out in two weeks! Just take a few precautions........LOL

Not sure if I'll have time to log in before I go, now off to get some insect stuff - I'm always the only person to get bitten, plus a bad reaction!

raptor:
For Friday, the index is favored to drop early in the day and then possibly begin a larger 3 wave corrective series on the low which could last at least a day in time. A low could be found as early as the first hour of the day. A move below the Thursday low would suggests the next down leg is in process though support is likely to come in well above the next 962 support level. A move above 990 minor resistance suggests the drop could be delayed with next resistance near 998 and then 1007.

Mild upside reversal today to stall and consolidate neutral to lower.


ESU03 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Friday, July 11, 2003
Prev Day - SP
Range: 14.30 Value Area
Range: 8.80 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 996.30
996.00-995.00 Sell Pivot
Open 994.50
991.60
Close 988.70
988.50 Pit Bull MA
982.80
Low 982.00
981.75-982.75 Buy Pivot

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is for a mild upside reversal which we expect will stall, consolidate and drift lower later in the session closing about neutral. The TCF proprietary indicators are mixed today with the overall bias for lower prices still intact.

As we head into a summer range bound period let's really take advantage of the drops and rallies not getting caught up in "bullish or bearish" opinions. Ideally the market will just flip flop around this summer without any serious dramas causing strong one- sided trends. As day traders we can just get in the flow of the action and make a nice paycheck almost everyday and then go to the beach (or lake, golf course, or somewhere else fun). Certainly we don't want to sit in front of a screen all day that's for sure.

TODAY IS AN LSS BUY DAY: What this means to us as followers of the TCF (21st Century Futures) methods is that we will be watching the opening for an upside reaction. A LOWER OPENING should "feed" the LSS Buy strength but If we find that the price action is tending to hold BELOW the open then we are most likely going into an aberration on the LSS Buy day and will head lower for a day or two more. The opening range and whether the market accepts and holds above the range or rejects it and pulls back below it are really the key to the next few days. For more information on "What is an LSS Buy day?" check our " Basics of S&P500 Trading" section on the site here or on our ASK MOHAN FAQ section.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We have had two 8 point profit trading days in a row which is great but I want you to be a LITTLE EXTRA CAUTIOUS TODAY. The reason is that it's Friday. Friday's tend to be POSITION SQUARRING DAYS in the market. What that means is that the traders who are hedging large million and billion dollar portfolios are adjusting things based on their view of what might occur over the weekend if anything. Options strategies and other rather complicated portfolio adjustments tend to be made Friday often making trading more difficult or at least LESS CLEAR. So follow the setups below but REALIZE that Friday is a different animal than the other days of the week.

If we get an early rally this morning with the Dow up +80 or more BUT WITH NAZ HOLDING BACK only up +10 or less with a higher TRIN around .90 or higher then lets look to Sell the BreakOut.

If we get the BreakDown as the first Hour One Pivot then we are going to look to Buy the BreakDown and look for higher prices off of that.

We also will want to Sell the Sell Pivot Target on a HIGHER OPENING if that is the first pivot hit of the Buy/Sell Pivot targets. On a LOWER OPENING and move lower FIRST we want to Buy the Buy Pivot Target. More on both of these below.

So although we have lots of trade possibilities setting up today just be sure the trade setup is really clear. If not then just stand aside for today and relish the nice few days of profits we have had as you roll into the weekend to relax.

Value Area: 982.80 - 991.60
If we get short today up at the Sell Pivot target (on a higher opening... remember) then we will be expecting the market to pull back pretty decisively into this VA below the 991.00. If you find the price action stalling at 991.00 and not holding in the VA for a 2-3 minute period then we may need to cover up the short early. Monitor the B/O price in conjunction with the Sell Pivot and see how they fly. Trade should find double support at the bottom of the VA which is also the Buy Pivot Target area in which we will be looking for a Buy on a lower opening.

Buy Pivot Target: 981.75 - 982.75
On a lower opening today below 988.70 let's buy this buy pivot target and hold long for a move higher. Use a 5 point stop at 977.50 and let's see if they can take em up.

Sell Pivot Target: 996.00 - 995.00
On a higher open and early run up let's sell this sell pivot target and use a 5 point stop at 1001.00 to hold back the buying. An early rally associated with a higher opening is expected to stall out up here which was the resistance area surrounding the opening on Thursday.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 988.50
We are closing on Thursday right on this number which you can see is what I mentioned yesterday about what I call the "Line in the Sand" action often surrounding this number. Sure they blew through it pretty decisively on Thursday but that closing action brought em right back up to deal with this area again. So we are once again on a CROSSOVER ALERT on the Pit Bull. Let's see which way the mop flops on this as we head into the weekend.

Pro Trader's Action
Are we having fun yet? As S&P500 traders it is very important to find means of smoothing out the stress from this high- speed game we play each day. Remember to laugh and have some great fun. With all those numbers spinning around in our heads all week you have to devise ways of getting away from the markets and chilling the brain. If you are a career trader like I am you learn early in this business that to survive you need to have some good exercise and recreation. Sometimes you have to FORCE YOURSELF TO GET AWAY FROM THE SCREEN... so do the needful. The neurological energy that is being surged through our systems all the time as we trade under pressure needs to be diverted frequently to stay healthy.

We have several trade setups this morning one of which is going to kick in. We may even get another trade later in the session but just be aware that today may just make a fast move early and consolidate into a low range, go-nowhere afternoon so be willing to stand aside if need be. The opening action is the key to setting up what we will be doing and be sure to keep an eye on the reaction to the opening range. The range is usually the price prints that occurs in the first minute or so of trading.

Have a great weekend and don't forget to check in over at the ASK MOHAN section after hours on most days where we are answering your important questions about the trading action. It's the "other half" of your subscription to the Morning Call.

All the best of success today and to your families who support you in your trading, Mohan

TOM hOUGAARDS DAILY:
Fri, 11 Jul 2003 11:19

Good morning,

The 982 area held last night. I had hoped for the 980 area but as it turned out, the geometry at 982. I have attached a chart so you can see the significance of 982. If the market breaks 982 it is a sell, and the target will be the funny spike low at 974.50. The market is in trouble as long as it is trading below 993. Above that would mean a short covering rally above the 1000 area. Essentially the first hour will be the key today. Today is the only day the bulls have to save the rally. Otherwise the SP500 will test the 960 area. It is clear to me that the scenario I told you about two days ago is coming true. The market was held up to allow the guys in the know to go maximum short SPY and QQQ. I would not be surprised to see a good rally today to allow them to sell at higher prices again. The scenario I am working on is the chart I showed you earlier in the week. This is the longer-term cycle that supports a big sell-off until the 21st July. I fear it will be a grind, as most bulls believe that every dip is a buying opportunity. I will not be until we take out 960 that they all of a sudden realise that we are headed down.

The alternative scenario, which I can't overlook at the moment, is the impulse wave up from the March lows in the Dow. I can't show you that chart because it is hand-drawn. This chart points to much higher prices to come, near 9970 in the Dow. I will dismiss this scenario until the Dow takes out the last 0.618 big degree retracement at 9350.

The expected path today shows a very choppy trading day.

Have a great weekend

NO DOUBT HIS CHARTS WILL BE POSTED LATER, I HAVE THEM IN AN EMAIL BUT CAN,T CUT/PASTE THEM!

Paul Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's

As long as there are no overtly bearish headlines, a drop at the open on Friday is probably going to attract buyers. Buyers started to make their presence known near the end of trading on Thursday, and while another down day like Thursday is possible, a rebound in prices would be natural.

One of the potential problems with Friday is that some of this expected buying is just going to be bears booking short-side profits and the lift might not attract terrific follow-through. This is also a Friday in the summer when afternoon trading volumes can be thinned by early escapes for the weekend, which adds another little wildcard.

I will be looking at the VIX (market volatility index) and put-call ratios for some insight into whether the buyers can prevent another day like Thursday from unfolding. If there is a drop at the open (which would be the preferred scenario),it would be better to see the CBOE total P/C ratio jump above 0.90, preferably over 1.00. The equity only P/C ratio should move above 0.85, preferably above 1.00. If there is a price advance, I will be looking to the VIX and that number should be heading lower, at least under 21.00, preferably under 20.88.

There should be a positive underlying trend in place over the next couple of weeks. Right now the markets are trying to work through a short-term minor overbought condition. So far, the retracement has not broken through any envelopes of normalcy in terms of a consolidation after a run-up. I would become concerned that a bigger decline might be in the making if the Nasdaq dropped to print under 1660 without attracting buyers immediately.

Resistance: The S&P 500's immediate intraday resistance starts at 998 and becomes very thick at 1010-1015.33. The bigger picture of resistance, which was established by price action in June, 2002, is that the S&P 500 has a band of resistance at 1008-1041, with a focus of 1020-1031.

The Nasdaq has immediate resistance at 1722-1748; it actually runs all the way to 1758.18. The next layer of resistance is 1778-1829.58. There is a gap in the price chart which runs from 1778.80 to 1796.46, which was created by a downward gap at the opening on Apr. 22, 2002. Sometimes the first print inside a gap like this will draw sellers.

Support: The Nasdaq has immediate intraday support at 1735-1713, then 1715-1693, which makes the 1715-1713 area important support. Additional support is 1684-1648. I think it would be unhealthy if the index printed below 1660 without attracting buyers immediately.

Immediate intraday support for the S&P 500 is 990-983.63, then 980-962.10. I think it would be unhealthy if the index printed below 960 without attracting buyers immediately. There is a big band of support for the S&P 500 at 948-912.

PPI 0.3% exp, actual fig 0.5 %
May trade balance -$41.5bn actual fig -$41.84

1.48 billion shares changed yesterday on the NYSE. The upward volume amounted to 251 million, the downward volume 1.19 Billion. So that was an 82.5% down day.

1271 on the NDX is the # for today, over it points up to the range of resistance 1283-89, below it Support at 1260-58 points. under this level generates further downward potential to 1243.

yesterdays closing #s

OEX $-weighted put/call @ Thu Jul 10 16:20:00 2003: 0.73 (calls: $19092600; puts: $13989400).

QQQ $-weighted put/call @ Thu Jul 10 16:10:00 2003: 4.01 (calls: $1811590; puts: $7272630).

MON FTSE PP

R2 4095.8
R1 4076.9
PP 4045.3
S1 4026.4
S2 3994.8

Close above Fri pp after loosing 3.2 pts in the auction, close just above ftse 4054(38.2%) fib level putting us back into the trading range of 4054/4085 (50% fib lvl)

FTSE WEEKLY PP

R2 4127.5
R1 4092.8
PP 4053.2
S1 4018.5
S2 3978.9

Close above this weeks ftse pp!

Have a nice weekend!

Have a great Weekend.Still long RTR 207.50.DDT 25.Had a great day on TSCO Long then short for a good few.