Morrissey is back with a new album at no 1 in the album charts out on Sanctuary Records (SGP). This is a big deal for a pretty small company. Added to this the first half results out today should show improvements in first half sales - their niche strategy is working. Expectations of an upbeat trading statement with double digit growth bucking the trend in the music industry. Share should tick up today.

There is no question that the investment community is waking up to that fact that Sanctuary have successfully established themselves as a new big kid on the block in the music industry. Tipped at 39p in June and now 47.5p on Friday...there is so much upside here and the second half profits will be absolutely stellar. Unlike many of the others, relatively unimpacted by the internet and will comfortably outperform the industry...

Sanctuary Group PLC
18 November 2004


Notification of Major interests in shares


The Sanctuary Group plc ('the Company')


18 November 2004


The Company was notified on 18 November 2004 that Morgan Stanley Securities
Limited ('MSSL') acquired an interest in the ordinary shares of the Company on
16 November 2004 with the result that MSSL now have a beneficial interest in the
Company of 27,898,004 shares, being approximately 8.19% of the issued share
capital of the Company.


MSSL have transferred from time to time 12,599,000 shares to a third party on
terms which gave MSSL the right to require the return of an equivalent number of
shares. Accordingly, MSSL's interest in 12,599,000 shares is pursuant to Section
208(5) of the Companies Act 1985.


MSSL is a member of the Morgan Stanley Group of companies. Those group companies
which are direct or indirect holding companies of MSSL are, under the terms of
section 203 of the Companies Act 1985, each interested by attribution in any
shares in which MSSL is interested.

oop's my shares have slipped a bit.
This one is now a target for a bid.

This share is going to be worth buying very soon.

I think this stock will recover (I do not hold at the moment)

The group explained that its growth strategy for its Recorded Product Division over the past two years has focused on acquisitions and signings of high profile established artists capable of generating significant sales.

I knew I should have got some of these.

Get on quick - will not be at these levels long!

run for cover all holders Clem has tipped it in Sunday Business, the kiss of death?

Oh no- not ANOTHER driver disaster too, oh dear,

This is going to bounce big time from this sp.

Reasons? Might be a short term bounce, but gamblers only. SGP is classic example of a business where any investor can learn that cash is more important, when reading the balance sheet, than profit (which can be massaged in many ways, particularly in an acquisition hungry business like SGP). In years to 2001 - 2004 SGP showed pretax profit 7.7m, 11.26m, 10.79m and then loss 1.8m after (non cash) writedown of investments 11.4m. On the face of it, decently profitable. However, debt in 2002 was 11.6m, in 2003 it ballooned to 51.6m and 2004 to 73.8m. Latest trading statement suggests bank facilities now 120m and there are also 30m convertible loan notes. Debt imo has spiralled out of control and banks appear finally to have had enough. Further pointer with the benefit of hindsight is the sale by each of the two principal directors of 5.75m shares each at 75p towards the end of 2000. One of my guiding principles is to get out if directors sell large chunks (whatever the stated reason) and imo it works more often than not.

partridge
Good post I think you are properly right I do not hold I sold at 46p

A much stronger H2 was what the group promised and based on August sales/new releases there is some small reason for optimism...

Sanctuary have 3 of the Top 5 UK singles for the second time in a month with:

James Blunt (managed by Sanctuary Artist Management/ Twenty-First Artists) at No. 2, Baby Shambles (Rough Trade Records) at No.4 and Iron Maiden (Sanctuary Artist Management/ Live Agency/ Merchandising) at No.5
Additionally, 2Pac feat. Elton John (Twenty-First Artists) is currently at No.12, Jamiroquai (Sanctuary Artist Management - North America) at No.14 and Super Furry Animals (Ankst/ Sanctuary Artist Management) at No.28

This gives Sanctuary 6 out of the Top 30 singles.

James Blunt remains at No.1 on the album chart.

"Iron Maiden have had more hits than any other heavy metal band in chart history, with 16 of their singles making the Top 10, 33 reaching the Top 40, and 35 entering the Top 75 since their 1980 debut Running Free" - Music Week

optimism being realised...

I can see this recovering in share price today and for the next week
or two.

You may ask how can i think that after today's news ?

Well to me it looks like the management have got all the worse case
scenario's out with this news, the shares had already priced in terrible
news and this mornings news was nothing worse than could have been
expected, there's potential for the shares to treble or more long term
once the management have trimmed and streamlined the business, sell
all the none core bits and bobs, cut costs etc etc, with the banks support
i think this morning share price of 7.5p was the bottom for SGP.

Seen this all before with Corus and Stagecoach as two examples, both their
shares have been rock bottom but with a little nursing they have returned to
health and returned a big financial reward to those who bought in at the bottom.

THe Corus and Stagecoach analogies are spot on Mackem. This is surely at rock bottom now and Ibthink it will be highly rewarding to buy/hold for the next 6-12 months.

I'm sure you can all see for yourself that there was some massive
support for the stock today.
And a lot of bid support on the order books all day, it was never going
back below 8p bid, some early birds got 7.5p which was a good price
and at least one institution was buying this afternoon judging by the
large buys.
The sooner SGP start announcing disposals even if they are small the
better, get the money coming in to keep the banks happy and then
let the longer term picture take place, still risky but this is where the
money is made in the stock market.
If you put say a grand in every stock that looks to be in serious trouble
and left it alone you will find that you make a lot of money overall.
Remember Ashtead ?...up to it's eyeballs in debt and the shares hit 2p,
banks gave them another chance, some disposals and cost cutting and
now they are 140p, imagine that...one grand now worth 70 for holding
a few years, it does happen a lot you know, Corus was under 5p and
Stagecoach was 12p.

DYOR

A few things to add !

Look at this :

Executive Chairman, Andy Taylor, commented:

"I am well aware that Sanctuary has disappointed the market significantly this
year and, with hindsight, it is clear we grew too fast.
I am totally focused on repairing the short-term damage to what is fundamentally
a robust business. We will be restructuring our business and supporting our
artists throughout. The Board and I are determined to steer a company that has
an extremely strong roster of artists back to a profitable trading position and
back to sustainable long term growth."

Well if he really means this he should be buying a large chuck of stock to show
his commitment and in his words determination to put this company right, this
would be a show of confidence which is badly needed right now.

Must stress again it's a high risk punt, all or nothing stuff.

3 hours and still no AT trade.

Didnt expect it to be this slow this morning.

Picked up late in the day.

Dont be deceived by the trade data, there was a lot more buying
than selling again today, price was cut in the morning but was rising
steadily in the afternoon.

I would be expecting some holding news soon and maybe tomorrow
to account for the large trades from yesterday and today.

Article in Saturdays FT not helping SGP today.

Whats happening today - high volume of buys going through inside last 30 mins?