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Traders Thread - Tuesday 23rd March (HOF)     

Crocodile - 22 Mar 2004 22:03

UK PreMarket Futures FTSE -3 DAX +10 DOW +25 S&P +2.3 Nasdaq +6.5

1 Day

2 Day

 5 Day

UK News

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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures Translate
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1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei +54    Hang Seng -37 Asia News

DAX CAC  Euro News
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All US Major indexes fall heavily as investors react to international news, including Hamas leader badday.jpgkilling. FTSE futures are just negative but I expect a bounce into the blue.

Electrocomponents said it expected full-year profits to rise around 5% to 106 million pounds after the economic backdrop in its major markets improved.

Bloomsbury Publishing / Harry Potter reported a 38.3 percent jump in annual profits to 15.38 million pounds on in line with market expectations.

MFI Furniture Group said sales fell four percent on a same store basis over its key trading period due partly to a lack of new products. It said bedroom furniture was particularly weak

EMAP see improvement in the advertising market with volumes rising approx 9%

Beazley Group Lloyd's of London underwriter reported full-year figures 10% ahead of expectations with a profit of 17.1 million pounds and said it expected strong underwriting conditions to continue.

SABMiller the world's second largest brewer said its underlying beer volumes rose just over three percent in the first 11 months of its financial year while its operating performance remained strong.

House of Fraser reported a 11 percent rise in 2003 profits towards the top end of market forecasts at 27 million pounds, It said it was well placed to better performance this year.

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT)

Lok'n' Store (I), MJ Gleeson (I), Alltracel Pharmaceuticals (F), Autologic Holdings (F), Beazley Group (F), Bloomsbury Publishing (F), Corac Group (F), DCS Group (F), Development Securities (F), House of Fraser (F), Intelligent Environments (F), Surface Transforms (F), Unite Group (F), Universe Group (F)

Teesland (EGM), Tissue Science Laboratories (EGM)

MFI Furniture Group (Trading update)

Family Dollar Stores McCormick & Co Goldman Sachs

Leoni AG, Wedeco AG Water Technology Kontron AG, Karstadt Quelle AG

Le Carbone Lorraine, Teleperformance Societe Rochefortaise, Sopra Group NA Ipsos

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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Currency Calc

Melnibone - 23 Mar 2004 10:35 - 11 of 18

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Morning all.

Been taking a little time to reflect. What I'm seeing at the moment
is shown in the above chart.

In December we had a swing low circa 4330. We then had one of those
Xmas rallies for no particular reason whilst most traders were signed
off for a two week binge.

We then made a swing low at the end of January, when Standard Life
sold off Billions to meet solvency regulations, to circa 4360.

We are currently below that level, around the 4330 swing low, which
would normally indicate a change in trend. But as I posted yesterday
the P@F chart is indicating a double bottom, not a change in trend.

FTSE doesn't appear to be over valued to my untrained eyes. We coming
to quarter end when Fundies sometimes like to window dress and end on
a positive note so that statements to their customers can be presented
in a good light.

This is also when investors need to use up this years ISA allocation.

So, all in all, I see us back on support, prior to the Xmas rally where
some traders got left behind. Last 3 months profits have been taken back
out of the market and the Bears are sitting on profits that they need
to take.

Unless terrorist events cause a change in trend, I'm looking for longs
from support at the moment, not shorts.

I can't see into the future, same as anyone else whatever they say, so I'll
let the market guide me as usual.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 23 Mar 2004 14:39 - 12 of 18

That was annoying, my mental take profit stop kicked in
on OOM. I was hoping for greater things than that.

Still, 2% isn't bad for a few hours work. No point in giving
Lady Luck the hump by declining her gifts, just bow gracefully
and say "Thank you very much, please call again."

Had a strange experience with that one, I could bring an order
ticket up for anything except OOM. Had to close by phone in the end.
Anyone else having problems like that?

Again this shows the value of discipline.
It takes all emotion out of the trading process,
a winning position never turns into a losing position,
you invariably get to take back your position at a lower price.

Melnibone.

Douggie - 23 Mar 2004 14:50 - 13 of 18

Melnibone please keep thinking aloud as in post 10 great help to folk like me new round here who know nowt, great to some insight into what others are thinking. do hope to get on a course somewhere soon thanks D.

Melnibone - 23 Mar 2004 14:58 - 14 of 18

Don't do yourself down Douggie,

We all know something.
What we need to admit to ourselves is that we are all
constantly learning and there's plenty that we don't know.

I learn a lot from other more experienced traders on here.
Glad my musings are setting off some trains of thought for
others.

Melnibone.

Douggie - 23 Mar 2004 15:53 - 15 of 18

thanks reply Melnibone not realy puting myself down (no offence) but am very aware how little I know, not afraid to say so, and take every oportunity to learn all I can from other posters. allways look forward to yours thanks again D.

Douggie - 23 Mar 2004 15:53 - 16 of 18

KEAYDIAN - 01 May 2006 17:15 - 17 of 18

LONDON (AFX) - House of Fraser PLC said it has received a 'very preliminary approach' that might lead to a takeover offer for the UK's third largest department store group.

The retailer did not name its suitor but AFX News understands the tentative approach has come from Baugur Group, the acquisitive Icelandic group that last month purchased a 9.5 pct HoF stake in a 'dawn raid' orchestrated by Merrill Lynch.

A spokesman for Baugur declined to comment.

In a brief statement HoF said: 'The board of HoF notes recent press speculation and confirms that the company has had a very preliminary approach that may or may not lead to an offering being made for the company.'

The retailer made its statement after The Business newspaper said on Sunday HoF had hastily convened an emergency board meeting on Friday, prompting speculation the department store group faces a new takeover approach.

HoF, which has been pursued by several suitors in recent years, ended takeover talks with Apax Partners, the private equity firm, on March 17.

Baugur is no stranger to HoF's share register. It acquired a 10 pct holding from 2002 to 2003, before exiting with a tidy profit in 2004.

The Icelandic group also owns a 10.2 pct stake in Woolworths Group PLC the variety store retailer, and a 13.7 pct stake in French Connection Group PLC, the fashion retailer and wholesaler. It also owns a raft of UK retailers, including the Iceland supermarket chain and Hamleys toy store.

HoF shares closed Friday at 119 pence, up 3/4 pence, valuing the business at 281 mln stg.

Baugur paid up to 135 pence a share for its HoF stake. This means under UK takeover rules any takeover offer would have to be pitched at this level or above.

KEAYDIAN - 01 May 2006 17:18 - 18 of 18

OOPS, SEE HOF THREAD
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