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THE SWISS CABLE LOONIE (USD)     

moonblue - 19 Jul 2004 15:15

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/ForexCharts/FXPage.htm

history.gif?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=f&w=15&a=5http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/
live charts
http://www.dailyfx.com/FinanceChart.html
Web%20Focuschart.bmpWeb%20Snapshot.bmpchart.phtml?id=35232&t=6m&type=line&ma1=chart.phtml?id=39985&t=6m&type=line&ma1=

Oil settlement day occurs on the 25th of every month when Canadian oil companies settle the current month's futures contracts priced in U.S. dollars for Canadian dollars
ifs?CONT=FXBPUSMUL&SHOWEXTENDEDNAMES=TRUifs?CONT=DXY&SHOWEXTENDEDNAMES=TRUE&HEADp.php?pid=schart&cb=18114734&symbol=FX^Ap.php?pid=schart&cb=18052513&symbol=FX^Cp.php?pid=schart&cb=18052563&symbol=FX^Gp.php?pid=schart&cb=18052565&symbol=FX^Ep.php?pid=schart&cb=18052566&symbol=FX^Jp.php?pid=schart&cb=18056701&symbol=FX^Ct24_au_en_usoz_6.gifchartgif.asp?c=eurjpy&p=5chartgif.asp?c=gbpjpy&p=5http://www.bloomberg.com/news/regions/canada.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/regions/australianewzealand.html
LATEST FOREX NEWS
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticias.asp?publicitat1=forexgrandlogo&publicitat2=fxplogo&publicitat3=brokers&publicitat4=newsnow
Daily Forex Forecast
By FX Unigma
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/105590/content.asp?menu=forecasts

mick p - 22 Jul 2004 08:45 - 11 of 12

FX Market Summary -


The yen was little changed in Asia today after a report showed Japan's trade surplus narrowed in June as exports slowed from the previous month and economic expansion at home sustained demand for imported goods. A smaller surplus may lead to decreased demand from exporters to convert foreign currency earnings into the yen. The trade surplus narrowed 27 percent as exports fell 1.9 percent from May and imports rose 6 percent, the ministry said. Against the dollar, the yen traded at 109.82 at 9 a.m. in Tokyo from 109.80 late yesterday in New York. It also was at 134.64 per euro from 134.60.

The Australian dollar fell the most in seven weeks on expectations the nation's interest-rate advantage over the U.S. will narrow more quickly than some expected. The gap between the two nation's interest rates contracted as U.S. Treasury notes fell a third day yesterday, pushing their yields up, after comments by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan fueled speculation the central bank will raise rates at each of its four remaining meetings this year. A quarter percentage point increase each time would bring the target rate for overnight loans among banks to 2.25 percent, compared with the Reserve Bank of Australia's 5.25 percent overnight cash rate target. The Australian dollar fell to 71.41 U.S. cents at 9:08 a.m. in Sydney from 72.35 cents yesterday. The currency slid as much as 1.2 percent Wednesday, the biggest drop since June 2.


Forex Technicals:


- EUR/USD - the currency fell much further than expected, hitting a low in New York overnight at 1.2215 versus expected low of 1.2250. The recovery since then may lay the foundation for a new recovery, probably to a minimum of 1.2330. But the bad news is that a full-scale rally is not in the cards unless the recovery takes out 1.2340. The sell-off has done more damage than expected, but the longer-term positive view remains positive on balance -- unless the decline extends further and go below 1.2200, which may lead to further declines to 1.1950. If support firms up soon by rising above 1.2330, then the uptrend renews its quest for 1.2500 or higher further out. Firmer resistance await near 1.2700. And we still believe that the uptrend will follow-through to 1.2900 further out. A caveat is probably due at this point. Indications point to a recovery, but that is tempered by the fact that the sell-off has gone lower than ideal, and that opens a risk window that is hard to qualify -- at least until the currency speaks for itself by rising above 1.2330 -- or falling below 1.2200.


- GBP/USD - the downwards correction fell to as low as 1.8325, much lower than the modest 1.8450 downside target. The recovery since the trough may rally further to just below 1.8500. However, it takes a rally above 1.8500 to kick-start a new uptrend. On balance, the positive longer-term view stays unless of course the currency fall below 1.8300, which may lead to further downmove to 1.8000. Nonetheless, the uptrend remains in contention, the currency still has fundamentals going for it, as expectation of further UK rate hikes will likely underpin the currency forward even further in the days to come. The recovery should start soon -- a rally to 1.8775 top still the immediate focus, but the 1.9100 level remains as the main target within the next few weeks.


- USD/JPY - the currency has been to as high as 110.31, corrects back, but may find support near 109.50 later today. The rally may extend one more time, probably towards 111.00. But we still see this as a bear market rally nevertheless, in which case, the reprieve to the U.S. dollar is temporary and will likely be brief The downtrend should resume soon, with the 107.60 baseline as next target.


- USD/CHF - the currency did extend gains to 1.2580, much higher than our modest 1.2520 upside target. But the upmove is probably corrective -- the
recovery should soon fail, and the downtrend resumes thereafter. The currency pair should follow through lower once more towards the 1.2210 minor base. We still expect to see further declines to 1.2150 major support level and then through 1.2000 much further out.


- USD/CAD -- the currency pair continues to retrace higher and has reached 1.3270 -- higher than 1.3220 expected top. Nonetheless, upside momentum slows down soon and the downtrend should continue at some point, with 1.3000 -1.2950 as next target. But much further out, focus now at 1.2700.


- AUD/USD - the currency has been to as low as .7100, a lot lower than our modest .7210 expectations. Nonetheless, it does not necessitate a change in the positive medium-term view -- a rally should soon bounce back to .7180. But we need to see a break above .7200 to fell secure about the medium-term scenario. If this is indeed the case,then expect a rally higher from those lower levels, accelerate through the .7350 top, and should then make it to the minor resistance at .7370 area. Further out, focus shift to .7500.


- NZD/USD - the currency fell further and has been to .6360 -- expect a rally back to ,6430. Unless of course the currency falls below .6360, which opens up the scenario of further declines to .6150. The longer-term scenario remains positive, nonetheless. The uptrend should resume soon, and eventually go on to challenge the .6620 top. The currency should then continue to trade higher towards .6750, then to the .7050 focal point further out.


- EUR/JPY - the cross has gone higher than expected, disproving the need for a final downmove to 133.00. The cross is now expected to go further north, and may rise to challenge the 136.00 top once again. The longer-term scenario takes on a large sideways consolidation requiring a sell-off from 138.00 - 139.00 potential resistance.


- EUR/CHF - the uptrend did pullback to 1.5320, and has been higher since then. The uptrend follows through thereafter, and the next rally should propel the cross through 1.5350 to 1.5430 further out. Any rally above 1.5450 suggests that the long bear market is over.


- EUR/GBP - the cross did find support at .6650, contrary to expectations, but remains mired in a sideways consolidation. The recovery should continue from here -- the uptrend soon accelerates, with .6700 as immediate focus, and has .6820 as prime upside focus.






============================================

mick p - 22 Jul 2004 11:46 - 12 of 12

22 Jul 2004 10:40 GMT


Bearish S African Rand Climate Developing?
JOHANNESBURG (Dow Jones)--The recent strength of the rand could be about to unwind in the coming sessions, says ABN Amro. ZAR-negative commentary from Finance Minister Manuel and more bullish USD sentiment could serve to shake out ZAR longs. ABN has entered a long USD/ZAR position through 1-mo call spread with strikes at 6.00 and 6.29 (spot reference 5.96. Trading at 6.0480. (AES)


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