RESULTS DUE NEXT WEEK NEWSFLOW IS GOOD
ANY BACKERS - IDEAS HOW PRICE WILL MOVE.

Blimey what a volatile share up and down like a yo yo. Still the outlook is very bright indeed. DERD CHEAP AT JUST OVER FORWARD P/E OF 11.

cheers GF.

hi gf
good to hear from you
sadly moved out of this one b4 xmas
coud'nt resist 100%+ gain
looking at the stats agree still looks good
best of luck

regards HUSTLER

Time you got back in Hustler, last time I tipped this one here ar the beginning of 2003 it moved up 380% and was the 2nd highest growth company on the whole market for the year, just ahead of PhotoMe (364%) that was third and I also tipped that one aswell, I beleive Torotrack was number 1 but I wouldnt touch it with a barge pole.


cheers GF.

Moving ahead nicely , P/E under 10 and forward P/E just over 11, derd cheap and product news to come out. Buy before the masses move in.

cheers GF.

too many hustlers on this thread, all trying to swindle yer money

Moving ahead nicely , P/E under 10 and forward P/E just over 11, derd cheap and product news to come out. Buy before the masses move in.

cheers GF.

Next real resistance until 220p and then on to 250p. Once bought these at 48.5p and sold at 517p. Those were the days!!!!

Looking strong now.

cheers GF.

Fantastic day for this one. Well worth doing the research to earn a nice bob or two.

cheers GF.

Excelent upgrade from Evolution on the new results, short term target 220p................

www.evosecurities.com 17 February 2005

Following on from the good FY04 results, Amstrads first half has been
exceptional in sales and profitability. This has been driven by the Set-Top-Box
1H has been exceptional for the STB
operation but Amserve has

An exceptional 1H for the Set-Top-Box operation
An exceptional 1H05 continues the earnings growth seen in the FY04 results.
The growth is driven by continuing success in the Set-Top-Box division, on
the back of Sky+ and Sky Italia deliveries which began in March and August.
Mkt Cap 149m Net Cash 22m
Amstrad (AMT.L)
Interims Price/Target: 184p/220p Buy short term.
150
164
178
192
206
220
F M A M J J A S O N D J
Source: JCF

Following on from the good FY04 results, Amstrads first half has been
exceptional in sales and profitability. This has been driven by the Set-Top-Box
STB) divisions surge in sales on the back of: the success of Sky+, the early
shipping of the large order for Sky Italia and extra sales to Sky following
difficulties at one of its other suppliers. In contrast the emailer business, which
saw such a dramatic turnaround into profit in FY04, had a more difficult 1H due to
increased costs and low initial uptake of the E3 colour-screen version launched in
September. That business was still profitable (0.3m PBT v 1.0m PBT in 1H04)
but is likely to remain only marginally so this year and is no longer separated out
in the operating review. Though still relatively small, the HK-based US audio
operation saw growing sales and continues to make a small contribution.
In 1H05 the group grew revenues to 63.5m (1H04: 29.5m) and generated EPS
of 12.1p (1H04: 6.0p). This has clearly been driven by exceptional circumstances
in the period and we do not expect a repetition of this performance in 2H05 so
the year will be heavily 1H weighted. We are increasing our FY05 sales forecast to
91m to adjust for the extra business, but this only anticipates 2H sales returning
to more normal levels which include seasonal reductions in post-Christmas sales.
With growing margin pressure on the set-top-box division in particular we are
maintaining our FY PBT forecast at 18.8m (FY04: 15.9m).
2H05e 1H05 2H04 1H04
Revenue (m) 27.5 63.5 27.8 29.5
Gross margin 28.6% 41.6% 34.8%
PBT (adj) (m) 4.4 14.4 8.7 7.3
EPS (p) 3.6 12.1.

Looking one year out, in FY06 we anticipate that, given the exceptional nature of
this 1H, another good year for the group will see a repeat of FY05 performance,
but with steady earnings growth across the year rather than 1H biased.
Cash conversion on the strong 1H profits was equally exceptional, at 37% (16%
1H04 and 18% FY04) mainly due to growth in debtors being below growth in
sales, and the impact of 2.3m of provisions in the P&L. This led to the first
substantial free cash inflow for some time and after the dividend payment, net
cash rose slightly to 22.2m. The interim dividend has been lifted to 2p (1H04:
1.5p). We continue to expect a 4p final dividend (3.5p LY), offering a yield of
3.2% on todays price.
A number of factors are at play in the exceptional success of the STB operation in
1H. In addition to the usual pre-Christmas surge in STB demand, the success of
Sky+ is fuelling sales of the high-end PVR boxes. Furthermore the Sky Italia sales
commenced a month early in August, and saw significant volumes. The group
has a good order book for the core STB business for the rest of FY05 and into
FY06 and is therefore confident with market expectations.
From the 1H gross margins it is clear that pricing pressure in the STB market has
been more severe than first thought. Looking forward we expect the pricing
pressure will continue, though with lesser impact on FY06 margins. Prices are
agreed a year in advance so the group is aware of forthcoming pressures and has
been able to mitigate some of it by in turn squeezing component suppliers. Cost
control remains Sir Alans forte and that is evidenced by the cost base falling from
11.4% of sales to 6.8%.
The Amserve operation seems to have settled down on an even keel after a
rollercoaster ride of heavy losses (-6.1m FY03) followed by sizable profits (3.1m
FY04). A small 1H profit is a good achievement given the costs of launching the
new model which has seen low sales.
The E3 offers a wide range of functionality but the range still appears to be
struggling to find a key sales driver, be it email, video-calling, or internet surfing.
2H04 sales were boosted when the emailer+ was cut to the 29 price point last
January 2004, but new registrations fell back to just 35k in 1H04 despite the
additional E3 sales.
1H05 2H04 1H04
000s registered 35 70 43
Events Sept E3 launched at
99
Jan 04 reduction in sales
price
Jan registration of Xmas
gifts,
New year sales,
Usually an Easter sales
boost
NRPD 22,000 25,200 21,000
Continued over
FY06 will do well to match an
exceptional FY05
Good 1H cash conversion and 33%
dividend growth
Several factors combined to see a
surge in STB sales
But STB is experiencing pricing
pressure in FY05
Amserve has seen some swings in
profitability
Emailer registrations back down
after surge.

A total of 403k emailers have now been registered since the first sale but this
figure takes no account of churn. A more important number is the average 22k
net revenue per day generated from emails & surfing in the existing base in
December, annualised to 8m. This is down from 25.2k in June suggesting
significant churn despite the rise in 2H04 sales.
New sales initiatives are planned for 2H and overall it appears that if the correct
price and sales position can be found, new sales will keep up with the churn and
the operation will be underpinned by that core 8m revenue base so that the
business can continue to, at least, breakeven. In our view, the underlying strategy
of the Amserve business is to firmly position Amstrad at the leading edge of a
wave of change in communications technology. That change is coming with
broadband connection, home networking, wireless networking, VoIP and video
conferencing. In the near term, profit, like the market size, is likely to be small but
as long as it is able to cover its costs, the opportunity is being created to grow
with the future market.
Amstrad is well on track to meet our 15.7p EPS forecast for this year, and we are
extending that visibility to a marginally improved 15.8p EPS target for y/e June
06. With the shares trading on 187p, this offers a 12x multiple for a highly cash
generative, innovative operation with secure visibility of sales in its core STB
operation. Its Amserve operation has a breakeven position largely underpinned
by recurring revenues yet wins for Amstrad an unassailable position the forefront
of exciting advances in broadband/IP telecommunications. On that basis we
retain our buy recommendation and raise our target price to 220p.
This document is issued by Evolution Securities Ltd (Evolution Securities) (Incorporated in England No.2316630), which is authorised and regulated
in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority for designated investment business and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
This document is for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to buy the securities or other instruments
mentioned in it. Expressions of opinions are those of the research department of Evolution Securities only and are subject to change without
notice. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made nor responsibility of any kind is accepted by any Evolution Group
company, its directors or employees either as to the accuracy or completeness of any information stated in this document. Evolution Securities
or persons connected with it may provide or may have provided corporate services to the issuers of securities mentioned in this material
and recipients of this document should not therefore rely on this report as being an impartial document. Accordingly, information may be
known to Evolution Securities or persons connected with it which is not reflected in this material. Evolution Securities may make a market or
deal as principal or agent in the securities mentioned in this document and its employees and directors may from time to time have long or short
positions. The stated price of any securities mentioned herein is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be
effected at this price. No personal recommendation is being made to you; the securities referred to may not be suitable for you and should not be
relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement. Evolution Securities shall not be liable for any direct or indirect damages,
including lost profits arising in any way from the information contained in this material. This material is for the use of intended recipients only and
only for distribution to professional and institutional investors, i.e. persons who are authorised persons or exempted persons within the meaning
of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom.
Annualised 8m of revenue from
emailer base
Amserve really positions the group
at the forefront of the technology
advance
Remains cheap given the visibility of
revenues from the STB unit


Year Sales EBITDA PBT adj Tax EPS DPS CFPS P/E P/E Rel Yield CFM EV/Sales % Change
End m m m % p p p x % % x x Sales EPS
06/04A 57.4 16.0 15.9 22 14.7 5.0 14.8 12.5 89 2.7 12.4 2.2 30.8 -
06/05E 91.0 18.7 18.8 29 15.7 6.0 22.4 11.7 93 3.3 8.2 1.4 58.6 7.1
06/06E 93.0 19.0 19.0 29 15.9 6.0 22.7 11.6 - 3.3 8.1 1.4 2.2 1.2

cheers GF.

Out of interest - has anyone on this board used the e-mailer? I'd be, and I'm sure others too, would be interested in feedback.

No Flackwell i haven`t and i don`t know anybody that has,in this day and age you can email from your computer ,t.v and mobile phone.
Anyway my landline phone is situated in the hall not the most comfortable place to send emails from when you have so much other choice.
DB66

My brothers got the 2nd version and says its brilliant. I think he was saying you could send faxes on it a lot easier than using the PC. Will try and get a bit more detail.

cheers GF.

Im looking for a week of risers on this one. Short term target 220p say evolution above.

cheers GF.

Profit taking going on this morning, nows the time to get in on the cheap.

cheers GF.

Amstrad - Thursday 17th February 2005, from Hemscott.

Consumer electronics group Amstrad posted record interim profits today but warned of a seasonal slowdown in sales in the second half. Sales of set-top boxes are going well, but the company has not shifted as many of its latest version of the emailer device as it hoped. Earnings visibility is improving and the shares look good value, says Ian Forrest.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Amstrad reported sales of 63.5m, up from 29.5m, for the six months to December today. Pre-tax profits came in at 14.2m, exactly double the 7.1m recorded last time.

The profit figure is especially notable given that gross margins have declined during the period due to pricing pressure from customers on mature products.

Amstrad manufactures set-top boxes for Sky tv and reported significant sales of the latest generation of these, the Personal Video Recorder(PVR), which are used in conjunction with Sky's Sky+ service. It also reported strong sales of set-top boxes to an Italian broadcaster, even though deliveries only started in August.

Sales of audio products, made in Hong Kong, also went well with turnover ahead of the same period last year. The latest version of the emailer device, the E3, can do all the usual things like email, text messages and internet access, but it also has a colour screen and can make video calls. One of the advantages of this product is that new features can be downloaded in the future. For example, people will be able to send digital pictures from their cameras to the emailer.


Initial sales of the E3 have been slow but the company said that it is planning new sales initiatives in the second half.

Amstrad also receives a useful revenue stream from emailers already sold which is derived from email and internet surfing usage and the sale of ringtones. In December this revenue averaged 22,000 per day.

Amstrad's balance sheet looks strong with net cash of 22.2m and no long term borrowings.

Chief executive Sir Alan Sugar said that the second half would probably see a seasonal reduction in sales but he added that the company has a "good order book" for set-top boxes for the rest of the financial year and has already received orders for sales in the next financial year. As a result he is positive about the the outcome for the current year.

Ahead of today's news the house broker Evolution Securities was forecasting profits of 18.8m for the full year, which gives a forward PER of 11.6. The prospective dividend yield of 3.2% is also notable in the sector.

cheers GF.

Lousy day monday like a lot of small cpa but expect to get some of that back tuesday.

cheers GF.

still watching gf
not low enough for me
closer to 150 will buy i don't
expect to get in
best of luck

HUSTLER

What does Sugar have to do be recognised. Good Results last time better results this time. Reasonable yield. I beginning to think Techs, for a while, are going to be hammered what ever they do. I am holding. But getting fedup.

The thing I hold against Sugar is that he bought out the QL with QDOS (from Sinclair) Killed it off in favour of the Amstrad.