After a year of stumbling around and ranging HAMP has finally broke out (see a chart)...and looks set for a run up this year...

Brokers buy notes (see yahoo), good contact wins...all looking positive on charts...cant see it failing really..

any thoughts?

all looking good...apparently shares mag have a bit of a tip on hamp in latest issue

anyone see the flashy new airbus jumbo?

after a few quiet weeks , suddenly a massive volume - over 11 million shares traded. Any ideas why ?

Keep an eye on this stock if it can break and hold 30 pence. Well placed to surge on the back of an aerospace recovery and the recent defence spending hikes will auger well for them - very bullish on this one.

joehargan

I agree, the price has held up well despite a total lack of news either from the company or in the media. Assuming the next comments are positive , this share will take off. Still don't know why over 11 million shares traded on one day a week ago.

big winner all round

the new airtanker deal recently announced by the MOD will apparently use a modified version of the Airbus. Given that Hampson already have their foot in the door (via GKN) for work on the military version of the Airbus, this could be good news.

Just passing by and noted what looks like a reversal from recent downtrend (expected it to go south for a time following head & shoulders on the chart) - now we have mm buys, some very large trades (over 75 x nms) and a couple of days of upticks in the price. Investor site visits Tuesday & today. Looking a bit more promising anway .... I bought last Friday.

Looks to have been forgotten, worth a read of results last month.

Just bringing this back to peoples attention, eps is about 7p, but the business has sold off the loss making bits and is focusing on the profitable bits, divi is about 5% too. So am expecting this to rise to 10p+eps so on 12x for this sector, 150'ish. Currently at 77p, looks good to double short-term. Plus divi and other earnings enhancing options could make this attractive for 200p, with 2-3% divi.

Should be good for an easy 100p, then onto 150p

As predicted! this thing will motor to 100p, existing pipeline/orders good for 7.5p, new order will push towards 10p, x12 =120, x15=150, new orders =200p, plus divi will be improved, expect 3%, look at the chart?

International aerospace and precision engineering group Hampson Industries has won a contract worth $28m.

The contract, which is for the design and manufacture of precision tools for composite airframe structures, will start to contribute to revenue in the second half of the current financial year.

No additional capital expenditure is required.

Hampson's chief executive, Kim Ward, said: "Despite the previously announced delays in the placing of larger tooling orders by customers in recent months this latest win, combined with the high value of our outstanding pipeline of quotations, reinforces our confidence in the potential for further new tooling work to be released over the coming months as several major new programmes reach design maturity and prepare for production.

JP Morgan adds 400k shares! seems they think its undervalued too and ready for a massive re-rating.

Take a look at this chart, classic double bottom? possibly, we shall see, am hoping for bounce to 100p

note this 'The company has also strengthened its balance sheet after February's share issue raised 55.5 million net. Besides this likely reducing a 7.5 million net interest charge, this provides flexibility to take advantage of acquisitions in what should be a buyer's market. At end-March the group had nearly 17 million cash at bank.'

imo this is a buy for the bounce - i believe from rns today still expect to make a 6m profit first half - check yourselves & background:

Hampson currently trades around a long-term low partly because an extra 119 million shares in issue - taking the total to 278 million - has meant dilution. Even so, if forecasts are credible then the forward price-earnings multiple is just eight times, well down historically. There is also a prospective yield of about 2.5%, unexciting in itself but does underline cash generation which is relevant to the shares' overall rating. With the 9 June prelims, Arbuthnot Securities projected pre-tax profit of 250 million for the financial year to end-March 2011, implying earnings per share of 6.6p and a dividend of 1.4p. For the 2011/12 year, the scenario improves to 320 million profit, EPS of 8.1p and a dividend of 1.7p.


As company broker, Arbuthnot ought to have run these numbers past Hampson's directors, and they are entertained despite a twist in the outlook statement which is the likely source of stockmarket fretting. Both the order book and quotation pipeline have increased since the March year-end although the rate of recovery during the first two months of the current financial year has been slower than anticipated. "For this reason it is appropriate to continue to remain cautious about our expectation for 2010/11 and in particular our results for the six months to September 2010..."


A P/E multiple of eight involves effectively flat profit for the 2010/11 after Hampson achieved 24.9 million normalised pre-tax profit in 2009/10, a 37% fall on 2008/09. The earnings per share scenario is materially lower due to dilution after normalised EPS also fell by 43% to 10.6p in the last year.


On a long-term view however, Hampson's derisory earnings rating looks classic prejudice of the kind Benjamin Graham emphasised when seeking genuine investment value: companies that are well-established with demonstrated earnings records, their shares simply lacking short-term growth appeal.


The chairman concluded: "Over the medium to longer term the board believes that with the combined strength of our business portfolio... Hampson is well positioned to return to sustainable growth." This is the crux of the investment rationale and to a large extent it is dictated by confidence returning in the aerospace industry. Large new composite airframe programmes became delayed by the financial crisis and possibly the effect of the Icelandic volcano added to uncertainty.


UK revenue halved in the last financial year to 33.8 million with the US down less so, by about 28% to 123 million - the US also being the principal area where Hampson's assets are located. Hence the trend in the US dollar is influential although the group's overall currency exposure helps diversify currency risks while sterling is weak. Europe has contributed the remaining 17.4 million of group revenue; while first tooling orders in India and China are starting to benefit the group, this is early stage. So the main 'top down' factor for Hampson is steady economic recovery in the Western developed world benefiting the aerospace industry cycle; with fears of a 'double-dip' recession partly behind recent share price weakness.


As with other firms that streamlined operations and cut costs in response to the 2008 crisis, the 'bottom-up' rationale involves Hampson being well positioned to capitalise on better revenues - with the downside limited if they don't appear. A 3.7 million rationalisation charge was taken in the last accounts and management says all of its businesses now have lower costs and better efficiency. Two of seven US businesses received Boeing Gold and Silver Excellence awards last year.


The market for commercial aircraft made from large carbon structures is independently forecast to grow at a compound annual average growth rate of 11%. Tooling growth is spread across many aircraft programmes, and demand for components is indicated as firm. All this is quite complex to boil down to overall trends and figures, but at least the shares currently price in a factor of caution.


The company has also strengthened its balance sheet after February's share issue raised 55.5 million net. Besides this likely reducing a 7.5 million net interest charge, this provides flexibility to take advantage of acquisitions in what should be a buyer's market. At end-March the group had nearly 17 million cash at bank.


Of the 63.1 million reduction in net debt, it is notable that 13.8 million of this represented 'free' cash generation (9.4 million investment needs), a healthy sign, also because debt should continue to fall. You would think the market might acknowledge this better, but it appears to be focusing on caution about the first-half results.


The balance sheet remains goodwill loaded with 283.1 million goodwill and 22.4 million intangibles relative to 283.3 million net assets, so although net asset value per share works out at just over a pound, some investors may wonder at asset backing. In a break-up situation however, Hampson's sum of parts would likely fetch significantly in excess of the group's current market value just over 150 million.


In conclusion, it looks fair to target at least 75p a share on a one- to two-year view, representing about 50% upside inclusive of say 5% total dividends; meanwhile, the current price factors in most downside risks. So overall, Hampson's risk/reward profile is attractive for patient investors.

Worth 5p imo.

mitzy saw your post cnt - thanks i always take posts on board - i think this may bounce to 23 / 25p by cob tomorrow - they will report around a 6m first half profit according to rns i believe - but peeps must check the rns for themselves dont want to be sued as a ramper following ntog & hawk situation - i have had a punt here - will see how it goes - if i am wrong my profit from cnt down the drain - cheers

this is interesting - director buys so they must believe in hamp if so:

'The price had fallen from about 200p in 2006-08 and even 90p early this year, re-visiting the 50p level at which Hampson issued shares in February when four directors increased their shareholdings, buying 146,007 in total.'

i like director buying shows confidence imo - no one likes to chuck money away

Good luck gibby with your bet.

thanks mitzy and good luck with any you do which ever company - all here for same purpose
cheers