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yoomedia share for the future (YOO)     

mactavish - 10 Sep 2004 22:20

Company Profile

YooMedia plc is one of the fastest growing interactive entertainment companies in the UK.
Since 1997 we have been developing and launching leading B2C consumer brands in the gaming and community sectors. We also work in a B2B capacity with leading brand owners, agencies, content developers and broadcasters to design and develop their interactive content strategies.

Led by Executive Chairman Dr. Michael Sinclair and Group Managing Director Neil MacDonald, YooMedia has assembled a highly experienced management team that possesses a unique blend of skills and experience in the areas of Digital TV, Internet and mobile phone services and technology.

With main office locations in London, Exeter and Maidstone, YooMedia manages core assets including:

Over 30 office locations throughout the UK alone

State-of-the-art studio, production and post-production facilities at our Wapping location.

UK broadcast return path & bandwidth owner

Fully fledged UK Bookmaker License

Database with over 350K UK singles

SMS Engine access with international reach

Fully staffed 50 seat Customer Contact Centre in Maidstone, Kent

YooMedia Dating & Chat - Our dating subsidiary company manages the oldest and largest UK-owned dating brands including Dateline, Club Sirius and Avenues. YooMedia Dating has over 20 office locations throughout the UK and also manages YooChat, our world-leading interactive chat service found on UK digital cable on the Telewest platform (platform extensions planned for 2005).

YooMedia Gambling & Games - Combining the brands of Avago and Channel 425 (in partnership with William Hill) YooMedia is on the leading-edge of interactive fixed odds, casino and poker gambling services for digital TV, the web and 3G mobile phones. Our gaming business also manages YooPlay, the only interactive just for fun games channel found on all four Digital TV platforms in the United Kingdom.

YooMedia Enhanced Solutions (YES) - YES works with brand owners, agencies, content owners and broadcasters to clarify the options, define the strategies and deliver the interactive content that enhances consumer and audience experiences. YES customers include the BBC, Nestle, Celador, William Hill, Channel 4, ZipTV, The Cartoon Network and HR Owen.

iPublic - 16 Apr 2005 11:33 - 1102 of 3776

Right, let be conservative. Estimate, Yoomedia's share of the 1 at 5p.

Running at full capacity, on a global basis, in two years.

1.8m SMS messages and hour * 5p = max hourly revenue of 90k

Max daily revenue from mobile = 2.16m

Max weekly revenue possible from mobile = 15.12m

Max monthly revenue possible from mobile = 64.8m

Max yearly revenues from mobile = 788.4m

Remember, Gross Margin are VERY HIGH!

Now be really bearish and project Yoomedia's share of the 1, at only 2.5p.

Max yearly revenue, running at full capacity, on a global basis = 394m

The vast majority of the 394m is profit, due to very high Gross margins.

Now we really are getting somewhere! All that for only a 2.5p share in the .

Is the business out there to be won, on a global basis? You had better believe it! System works on analouge and digital!

Even if the mobile division runs at only 20% of capacity, assuming only a 2.5p share of the 1.

394m / 5 = 78m revenue from mobile, for running at only 20% capacity.

Most of the 78m would be ALL profit.

If you have the vision and beleive Yoomeida can win business on a global basis, over the next five years, then quite clearly, the shares will appreciate by a factor of at least 20 or 2000%.

Assume 50m of the 78m revenue is profit (very high margins and only 2.5p in the ) * PE 20 = MARKET CAP 1 BILLION.

No this is not a Saturday afternoon story, the numbers speak for themselves. Feel free to pick holes in this post.

moneyplus - 16 Apr 2005 11:50 - 1103 of 3776

Thanks ipublic--exciting figures. I intend to keep adding when I can. good weekend all. cheers MP

iPublic - 16 Apr 2005 13:06 - 1104 of 3776

Now let's be even more conservative!

In three years, despite the best efforts of Mr Bainbridge & staff, the mobile division is only running at 5% capacity.

90000 SMS messages an hour, 24/7, with the business spread over U.K. Europe, America.......

We already know our time stamping technology is being rolled out in 105 countries, that support our technology, for the 'Walkaway' game, on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire.

Is it unreasonable to expect the capacity of our mobile division, to be running at 5% in three years. 90k SMS messages an hour, every hour, 24/7? Remember the 'Walkaway' game attracts well over 1OOK of messages, every single show. So on a global basis, I suggest a 5% capacity target is very realistic.

1.8M SMS messages an hour maximum capacity.

5% capacity = 90k messages an hour

YOO receive 2.5p for every 1 spent.

90k * 2.5p = revenue per hour 2250

Revenue per day = 54000

Revenue per week = 378000

Revenue per year = 19.65m.

A conservative estimate for profit would be 14m. Very high Gross Margins.

14m * PE 20 = market cap of 280m.

Now imagine if YOO's share of the 1 was 3p or 4p. See how the market cap approaches 500m.

Then imagine the division can be run at 10% capacity and one approaches a 1 billion valuation.

We have not touched on the many other areas of the Solutions business or the Gaming and Dating divisions.

I do not mean to appear arrogant or cocky, however, the short sighted approach and lack of understanding of the underlying business potential, by certain individuals, needs to be addressed.

The most ignorant comment I've read this week was a poster claiming the EPS growth rate, could not possibly be exponential, since the merger had created to many shares. Well I hope I've put that false truth to bed! An obvious lack of understanding of the Solutions business model!

International Potential

The U.K. is far in advance of the rest of the world in terms of digital TV and the interactive services it permits. As other countries try to catch up, many operators will probably look to license content, rather than re-invent the wheel.

I want you to imagine that the shareholders and directors have been pregnant for three years, carrying two children. Their names were DIGT/TGG & Yoomedia. The pregnancy was complex and significant upfront financial sacrifices were made by Mummy & Daddy, during this period. We the parents invested 40m in the future of our offspring, ensuring they would prosper later in life. On the 21st December 2004, Mummy gave birth to two children, who were born joined in a beautifully seamless manner. We called our new child Yoomedia.

Yoomedia is only 5 months old! Give it a chance! Do new born baby's walk!

iPublic - 16 Apr 2005 13:18 - 1105 of 3776

Full credit to Paul Smith. Thanks Paul

psmith64 - 16 Apr'05 - 12:55 - 348 of 350

Trigger - remember - this is just one application of the whole company.

I have played around with different types of senario's, too indepth to put on here, and to be honest, probably a waste of my time putting them on here being hypothetical, even though very probable, so they are best left for my own personal use.

Just take a look at the Daily Mail today - A text raffle to win 10,000, all over in the course of the day, you must enter by 6.00 pm to stand a chance - well, just entered myself, it only costs 25p, I am not saying this particular game is organised by YOOMEDIA, but it could easily be in the future - in conjuction with CELADOR - for big money prizes

The papers are jumping on the band wagon - how long before you see in the SUN a full page YOOMEDIA/CELADOR Walkaway competition - with over 4 million readers - most of the readers of which live in " Chadsville ", all with mobiles, all grovelling over the thought of a 500,000 prize for a simple text - the dole queue members will not even have to leave their armchair to go down and buy the 50 scratch cards out of their benefits that the tax payers supply them with !!!!!!!!! - also, being in the building industry, which employs 10 % of the workforce, you will find a SUN in virtually every mess hut up and down the country every day - on a wet and windy day - what bricklayer would not be tempted to spend 1 to win maybe a 500,000 prize just for a text - I certainly would.

It could work, a multiple choice question in the paper - which has to be answered in a particular 30 second time slot during the day - you just register in the morning, and sometime during the day you will receive a text telling you the time slot has began - get your answer in now, again, it's a worldwide opportunity, and you can't tell me this is not already being planned - one the the world's most popular game shows brought to you every day in the paper.

This is the reality of YOOMEDIA - their technology with mobile is not just limited to TV - any form of media - including the best read daily's - the mobile technology could be used daily in the papers - and that is just another one of the thought's that keeps me excited about YOOMEDIA - even in times like the last few days.

We have not seen anything yet, and with the company moving into profitability, risk is now less than it has been in the past IMHO, DYOR - at these low levels we currently see.

Regards

Paul

I am not really worried what anyone else on this board does, I am now as fully invested as I feel I need to be in YOOMEDIA - it's just a patient sit back and wait for the next five years as far as I am concerned.

dibbles - 16 Apr 2005 15:11 - 1106 of 3776

When a share is unloved by the market with huge potential and moving in the
right direction, isn't that the best time to buy?

p.s.- that was a rhetorical question from my mate Confustious....LOL.

Ainslie7 - 16 Apr 2005 15:20 - 1107 of 3776

Hello fellow investors,thought i would come in and say hello. As a complete novice in these matters I've stayed in the background reading your thoughts and opinions for sometime. I have been imprest by the knowledge and vision of many of the posts "iPublic,EWRobson and more". It has become part of my must do's when i get home. Look forward to learning a lot from your Knowledge and experience.
ps When the sp goes down,it gives me the opportunity to build.So i'm gratefull to get the chance. Yipee!

Ainslie7 - 16 Apr 2005 15:25 - 1108 of 3776

ps still trying to get use to computers

moneyplus - 16 Apr 2005 15:34 - 1109 of 3776

Welcome to a select band of investors with vision wisdom and very high hopes!!
Keep posting ainslie it's nice to have new comments.

Ainslie7 - 16 Apr 2005 15:38 - 1110 of 3776

Thank you for the warm welcome mp

EWRobson - 16 Apr 2005 19:46 - 1111 of 3776

moneyplus is our hostess with the mostest. Official appointment!

My commnet, iPublic, re Evo's role with YOO is that they are appointed by YOO and presumably paid well so have to keep tom the party line. With SEO, they can be foot loose and fancy free; this seems to liberate them to speak their mind.

Eric

Dil - 17 Apr 2005 01:52 - 1112 of 3776

EW , I got shot to peices a few weeks ago for calling these crap at 20p but at 15p they are still 50% overvalued looking at the charts imo.

Good luck.

iPublic - 17 Apr 2005 09:46 - 1113 of 3776

Mobile division.

1.8M SMS messages an hour maximum capacity. Currently being rolled out globally, in shows like Who Wants To Be A Millionaire in 105 countries.

Situation in 18 months?

5% capacity = 90k messages an hour

YOO receive 2.5p for every 1 spent.

90k * 2.5p = revenue per hour 2250

Revenue per day = 54000

Revenue per week = 378000

Revenue per year = 19.65m.

A conservative estimate for profit would be 14m. Very high Gross Margins.

14m * PE 20 = market cap of 280m.

Now imagine if YOO's share of the 1 was 3p or 4p. See how the market cap approaches 500m.

Then imagine the division can be run at 10% capacity and one approaches a 1 billion valuation.

We have not touched on the many other areas of the Solutions business or the Gaming and Dating divisions.

iPublic - 17 Apr 2005 21:00 - 1114 of 3776

The merger document stated that one of the key business objectives was to expand the business into new international territories following the growth of digital television, particularly in the US where the Enlarged Group Board believes digital television will continue to grow.

Once again, I refer to the 100% Gross margins available to Yoomedia, when offering partial and complete digital solutions to third party operators. The amount of business out there in the world is almost infinite and therefore even allowing for the competition which inevitably exists, dramatic, exponential growth for Solutions is guaranteed.

In the financial year ending 31st March 2004, DITG's revenue was 19.88m. Significantly, 6.19 million of DITGs revenue related to billings to The Television Gaming Channel.

Those of you who have recieved Nissi sreadsheet will know the incredible effect on EPS, if the revenue for BS (Solutions) is adjusted. Nissi has forecast 15m for 2005 and 18m for 2006. For various reasons, I suggest the 2006 estimate is extremely cautious. On the spreadsheet, 2006 EPS is 1.6p (current broker forecast 2p) with 18m revenue. Now delete the 18m figure and replace with 25m. The EPS for 2006, soars to 3.1p.

So in 2006, a 7m beating of revenue estimates for Solutions, leads to a >90% increase in FY EPS. So how realistic is this?

Before DITG merged with TGC, DITG recieved 6.19m for providing solutions services to TGC. Now remember we ONLY need 7m extra revenue in 2006 to achieve a 55% beating of current broker estimates of 2p, resulting in 3.1p. So DITG (now Yoomedia Solutions) received 6.2m for providing solutions to ONE third party operator. I ask you to consider, is it really unreasonable to expect 2006 revenue to reach 25m, not the cautious 18m forecast at the moment? Just two or three agreements, with independant, third party operators, launching their own channels, could be all it takes, to achieve 25m 2006 revenue. It's not to difficult to imagine 2007 Solutions revenues at 35m, providing EPS of 5.7p, PBT of 23.8m and a share price well in excess of 1., is it?

Why not double up and include my projections for the mobile division. Running at only 5% capacity in three years and taking 2.5p in the 1. Share price well in excess of 2 and yes, that could be conservative!

You can only take a horse to the water but you can't make it drink!

EWRobson - 17 Apr 2005 22:47 - 1115 of 3776

Well Dil, we know now why they were placed at 15p. But these were sold out to institutions on prospects of the merged company. It appears that matters are on track with more synergies in terms of cost savings than anticipated. The Evolution note is cautious, presumably because of their official role, and seeks 5 month price of 20p which is where you got out. Looking further ahead, the predicted eps are 0.8p, then 2p; the assumptions for the latter, in particular, appear overly cautious. So it is a share for the medium term holder which is not normally me. What I like is their position of strength in an emerging sector. You were right in the short term (that is hard to say!) - I'll be right over one year, two year scenarios. I am not as missionary minded as iPublic, bless him. But I accept the general force of his case.

Eric

iPublic - 17 Apr 2005 23:51 - 1116 of 3776

Recall my posts regarding the concept of Tesco TV or similar branded channels on digital television and the massive capacity on the Sky EPG.

Well Yoomedia are perfectly capable of handling a shopping, transactional portal for Tesco's or anyone else!

http://www.ditg.tv/7_XShop.pdf


For the dating division.

http://www.ditg.tv/12_Dating.pdf

Of course, this will be used for Yoomedia's new dating channel, plans for which, are at an advanced stage!


http://www.ditg.tv/3_xbrowser.pdf

xBrowser is initially available on the Sky Digital platform but will be rolled out to other platforms in the future.

I cannot reiterate enough, the exponential growth curve, the Solutions division will be on, over the next 5 years, on a global basis, with it's very high Gross margins.

cavman - 18 Apr 2005 11:15 - 1117 of 3776

with all this positivity and prospects...why has the share fallen so much? at the moment (11.13am) it is 12.50p

Is this just from being tipped as a SELL in one magazine?

i havent seen any news to warrant this minus 10% today? so is it oversold now?

proptrade - 18 Apr 2005 11:21 - 1118 of 3776

this is a falling knife and i am anxious to invest but am waiting for things to calm down. when is the next update due?

i am a bull of the concept...i asked for nassi's spreadsheet but no response. can someone forward it by clicking on my name and sending a private email. cheers.

rgds
PT

iPublic - 18 Apr 2005 13:12 - 1119 of 3776

proptrade

Send again. If you still do not receive it, let me know and I'll speak to him!

proptrade - 18 Apr 2005 13:13 - 1120 of 3776

cheers squire

Ainslie7 - 18 Apr 2005 14:55 - 1121 of 3776

Eric if i may , please explain placing at 15p in post 1114 trying to keep up and learn from you guy.
thanks
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