NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.

They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.

does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??

Thanks, Di - interesting. Is Ianwc generally reliable in his info/views would you think?

SD much better than anom and those other squelched idiots. The serious investors are taking him seriously on the other side

There's what caused the drop from 3p bid - a mere 100k!

I see today's news as fairly positive overall, and it seems initially, the MM's marked it up, so they must have seen it as positive.

Unfortunately as we know, this stock moves quickly both ways on a few trades, so the few people who sold decided the direction of movement.

The announcement is negative in that the expected alluvial projection which would have buoyed the price incredibly, will now be delayed, probably for a few months. But we suspected this anyway due to the late minestart.

It is positive in that the company are clearly acting with a purpose here, and are showing great confidence in what they are doing. It also suggests a JV announcement may well be coming sooner rather than later.

Either way, there should be more news flow over the next few weeks and months now, as the extra equipment is deployed, the alluvials get back on track, the parallel alluvial exploration results come in, more details of these "nice stones" hinted at come in, kimberlited identifies, joint venture agreement, etc etc.

Looks like they have changed tack from alluvial to kimberlite straightaway ,as if a j. v. pending, so havnot really started yet,no real figures yet, never mind ,if sp falls further next week ,topup on wed. say.

Good attitude mate.

So do peope here see this as a positive move by NML?

Di, sd. Think we should leave mjr to cope with anom, etc. I'm not concerned about large sellers, 'mystery' or otherwise, because they will eventually run through there shares. Not concerned either about complaints to FSA - would take 12 months or more to act and I suspect that have bigger fish to fry, such as insurance mis-sellers.

I am concerned about the switch of equipment from the alluvial operations to kimberlite. On the positive side, we know that they have raised funds for the latter which implies some lead investors who have been convinced of their story. On the negative side, it appears to imply unsatisfactory progress with the Rio Lapi mine and throws into question the production potential. The implication appears to be that they have not achieved the minimum level required by Endiama.

My own position is that I put down an exploratory stake based on a potential positive revaluation of the share following confirmation of successful alluvial production. This has not happened. It may be that the potential has risen but so has the timescale. I am not convinced it is worth staying on board. Appreciate your views.

Eric

Eric -

From the photos on the website and the statements made in the UKREG announcement, I would be surprised if they have undertaken any alluvial production at all at Lapi River. And certainly not enough to have become disenchanted with it, or - as you suggest - for Endiama to have also become disenchanted!.

The stripping being done on the kimberlite site equates to 180,000 cubic metres - approx 400,000 tons at an SG of 2.2. To have dug as far down by the end of May as is shown in the pix would indicate to me that the mobile fleet has been there from Day 1. If they have been "re-locating" that much of the Calonda formation en-masse, they havent been carting alluvial gravels to the plant!

I was a bit disconcerted by the news, as it is a pretty radical departure from plan, but my only real concern is that of funding. Cash has been raised to finance kimberlite exploration, but that was on the assumption that production revenue from the alluvials would also be coming in to finance the rest of the operation. This is not going to be the case for a few months, until the mining fleet can be released back to alluvial mining - so it would seem to me that unless they really can complete a JV quickly and get some up-front cash, they will have to come back to the market.

To be blunt, I am not surprised that the majority of NML holders are ignoring the ramifications of the latest RNS. But it also appears to have instilled a universal short-term memory loss in some of them as well.

It is quite obvious now, that the moment the share price shot up, someone swamped it with number of significant sells and overestimated the demand and caused the price to steeply fall. This completely vindicates my stated analysis that the share price would fall on any price spike.

What concerns me though is that the vast majority of shareholders that were clamouring for the good news (to prove me wrong), have now been told they are going to have to wait a good while longer before they have anything.

Doesn't it strike you as strange, that the company never published the data on the pitting and sampling in January and February, then a day after they said they would announce the production figures and forecasts, they then fail to deliver this data too.

Could it be that the pitting and sampling revealed such poor resource values, that the company was too embarassed to publish the data for fear of the company collapsing?

Could it also be that even though they have excavated approximately 180,000 cubic metres of material (which is the Garimpo, not the kimberlite as some have suggested, because it would take 5 months to move that much material), they have still not extracted enough diamonds from the Garimpo to justify the expenditure on the project?

Could it be that they have announced the switch to kimberlite exploration because their nearest neighbour HAS been exploring the C9 kimberlites? Because the news from Angola, is that Alrosa have been (which shows that Wendy obviously was not aware of this when she contradicted me).

Could it be that NML have sent the teams out to look for another alluvial area to exploit, because they've so far found very little in the Garimpo? It seems completely daft to be off looking at other alluvial areas and 'moth-balling' the 'proven' resource, when the project forecasts suggested there was at least 14 months worth of extraction of diamonds in the area?

Did the Garimperos mine the lot of them between 1997 and 2004?! If they did, who can blame them?

Seriously, the company has suddenly up-sticks and changed its focus of operations. Whilst I can understand that they may feel that if they don't, another company will get the license. They did say that a Major was interested in a JV, but then in order for them to be able to make the deal, NML is going to have to expend serious money to do the drilling IMO.

And where does that money come from? More placees? More shares to be dumped into the market at a premium to spoil any price rise?

Considering the share price reaction on Friday, I doubt any placee would agree to purchase at 4p. Indeed I have serious doubts about them buying at 3p either. They would want some form of protection to prevent them becoming victims of the 'Mystery' seller(s) like the rest of you. If that's the case, then the issue price could be below 3p and the quantity a significant percentage of the current issue.

Hudson raised 1.7 million dollars to do the drilling in Greenland. Considering the number of targets for NML, they'd probably have to raise million or more for their drilling programme. Given the time constraints, the fact that Alrosa probably have the data and the money to fully explore and exploit the kimberlites, NML would need to do it right away. In my opinion, the present shareholders could be looking at a dilution of 30% in the near future.

The only thing that could prevent this, would be for the company to announce good news from their alluvial operation. But they didn't. The 'Mystery' seller(s) remains and they will keep dumping (as evidenced on Friday) on any opportunity. Indeed, you can see why now. If the company had to dilute, then better for the 'Mystery' seller(s) to sell at 3p now, rather than 2p in the future. They'd be holding the shares for a considerable time awaiting the news of the JV agreement. Even then, the moment the news arrives, in all liklihood, the rest of the 'trapped' shareholders will sell to get out and swamp the price rise again - just like Friday.

The company diverting the resources,, the DMS pans, the trommel etc. is so that they can process the samples as soon as practical. They need data immediately. But in diverting these resources, it appears that they are jeopardising the cashflow. With no revenue, you know who is going to be asked to provide the working capital?

The big question right now is how big a dilution is coming and how soon? But the more pertinent question is:

Why are the shareholders ignoring the fact that they have not received the data that they were told the company would provide?

Everyone was pretty bullish about the company proving me wrong and talking about the large diamonds they would soon be seeing. But the company has proven the shareholders wrong, by denying them anything to justify their arguments.

It's pretty obvious that another of the companies promises has now been broken. The one about them being cashflow positive in year ending June 2005. I would say that IMO they are going to be very heavily cashflow negative from operational revenue in 2005. They might show the funds raised from the shareholders, but this is not profit from operations, merely that they've squeezed the juice from the shareholders again.

So instead of being embarassed by this lack of data, the shareholders have selective short-term memory loss and are concentrating on the potential from the kimberlites. Someone described this move by the company as BOLD, to switch from a proven resource, to a completely unknown and money-eating exploration project. I don't call this bold, I call it FOOLISH IN THE EXTREME.

According to the Company, they have a proven resource that can generate the revenue (or do they?). Yet they are prepared to stop operations (Just like Namco did!) to go chasing rainbows - all because a major is interested in a JV over the kimberlites. If the company is so certain of the revenue from the C9 alluvials, then why are they not pushing ahead at full speed to generate the profits and using these to pay someone else to do the drilling and analysis?

According to the data that Wendy produced, the company should be able to generate up to million per month BEFORE the split. The kimberlites are supposedly going to benefit all the partners in the operation. So it is in the interests of Mombo and Endiama that they forego their share of the profits to hype up the exploration.

Then there's the fact that in theory NML should be operating the mine at the projected 10,000 carat per month speed by now. If that is the case, then they have the revenue, to justify approaching a bank to cover any shortfall on the operation. But instead, the company have chosen to curtail all production (temporarily) to devote all their attention to the kimberlites. Is this not a waste of the companies resources? Shouldn't they be focusing on retrieving the diamonds in the Garimpo as they said they would?

They said that there were diamonds there, but so far they've failed to deliver any data, apart from Dr Smith's report, to show that there are diamonds and that they have extracted enough.

What's the matter with all of you? Why aren't you jumping up and down in disgust at the fact that the company has let you down again? All you are doing is proving that you ignore the facts, even when the company fails to deliver them as they said they would. The Three Blind Mice are alive and well and all NML shareholders.

The NML Shareholders

If the excavations in the picture are, indeed, of a diamondiferous kimberlite pipe, then it is, or has been, one source of alluvials found in the river valley. Ergo in removing the overburden it is likely that they are also producing the 'alluvials' that have travelled least.

bundu,

I think that is being somewhat presumptious, IMO, as they haven't suggested this, and there are a number of kimberlites in the immediate area, and any one could be a source of the river valley alluvials.

Even the company do not seem to be suggesting this kimberlite is the possible source.

I am not sure you can call this a "diamondiferous pipe", as they haven't produced any data from driilling to support that.

I did say "if".
However I can't see a hell of a lot of point in taking 30m off the top of a non-diamondiferous kimberlite - can you?
Maybe I read the RNS wrong but I took it to mean that the latest photos were of current operations and the site appears to be on the escarpment of a river flood plain. Any diamonds eroded from the kimberlite in the geological past must have ended up as alluvials in the river course.

Why does everyone immediately assume from the RNS that they removed the overburden from the kimberlite? It does not say that.

To move that much earth would take 5 months. It has to be the material moved in the alluvial operation, NOT the kimberlite. They didn't even look at the kimberlite until they found out that other people were and then they applied for the license.

What makes you think they are able to remove the first 30m of the kimberlite? Kimberlite varies in hardness and I very much doubt they could 'dig' the kimberlite from the top. Quite apart from that, they don't have the license they need to start exploitation.

The photos show that the company has been exploiting an area, one fifteenth of the total Garimpo. One would have thought that after that much earth, they would be reporting huge quantites of diamonds. In fact, I would say that it would be reasonable to assume that they had extracted 12,540 carats - but for one thing:

The company hasn't published any data on their production - at all

Not a whisper. If they had extracted 12,000 carats plus, you would have thought they would be singing and dancing, flashing the pictures of lovely diamonds on their website. Not some small paltry little display like they are showing at the moment, but huge piles of them.

Still nothing!

Oh dear. Does this mean that they haven't generated the diamonds that they said they would? Does this mean that they are out looking for a new and more promising alluvial area, because the last one disappointed them so much? Does this mean that they've finally discovered why Namco gave up the operation and called it a day?

Who knows - the directors do, but they are not telling anyone. I wonder why?!

Bundu,

"However I can't see a hell of a lot of point in taking 30m off the top of a non-diamondiferous kimberlite - can you? "


Well as they appear to have not announced any drilling of this kimberlite, how do they know?

And "IF" the photos on the website are of the area above the kimberlite, that would indicate they had changed direction some time ago by the amount of work done, and that may contradict the RNS of 30/3/05, and 04/04/05, which may have regulatory ramifications IMHO!

There is no evidence to suggest they think the kimberlite they are currently working on has any connection with the river valley alluvials, there are many potential sources, including possibly Catoca!

The geo report on p9 and p10 might give a clue.

takahe,

A clue about what?

The kimberlite, or the source of the alluvials?

Andy..the possible secondary source of diamonds in that Calonda formation

takahe,

ok this pc won't download the Colonda Formation report, will try tomorrow at work.

Any chance of a copy of the GM mail please?

If you have lost my email, you can use the private message facility here.

Thanks in advance.

Morning Andy...I sent you it yesterday on the PM system.Maybe I did it wrongly.
I'll send it on the email.