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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Falcothou - 15 Feb 2008 13:48 - 1110 of 21973

Hi Big Ted know the feeling though it depends on the timeframe. My favourite trading disaster is to go contrarian thinking something can't possibly go higher/lower, it invariably does. I think in these times of massive volatility small stakes relative to account size give a much bigger timeframe for wrong trades to come very right indeed! Cynic does however have an uncanny instinct into forecasting massive FTSE / DOW moves wwhich must give him the confidence to go large!

cynic - 15 Feb 2008 14:01 - 1111 of 21973

you flatter me .... as i have said before, i have managed to lose money with the best of them ...... however, almost more by luck than judgement (not true really), i quite often manage to read the markets correctly .... that is helped enormously that my real job (lol) mean i have live prices in front of me throughout the day ..... trading the indices without constant watching is not only scary, but downright dangerous! .....

only occasionally, and then with what feels like good reason, do i leave index positions open overnight ..... i did so last night and was staggered to see a firm opening here and ditto indications in NY .... in fact, and again because i could watch, i let those run and have been proven correct to have done so.

in case NY suddenly jumps at opening, though i doubt it, i shall probably put in a trailing stop and also against FTSE

BigTed - 15 Feb 2008 14:03 - 1112 of 21973

Prob little chance,Greenspan just given bearish report, indicating he thinks 50% chance of recession, doom and gloom basically, i have no position in market but i i had to bet it would be on a bigger drop his afternoon...

stroreysj - 15 Feb 2008 14:09 - 1113 of 21973

Its not worth the effort to be glued to indices and still get whip sawed. I have never been so stressed and put so many hours in until I started playing with these things. Take stress out of the situation and make money both directions and get a restful nights sleep. Buy stocks long and sell 50% calls on a spreadbet. If it goes down you make 50% but still have the stock if it goes up you halve your gains. Having lost so much in the last 6 month I would rather have half of something than a big fat loss, even if it is only a paper loss.

BigTed - 15 Feb 2008 14:17 - 1114 of 21973

will keep a (watchful) eye on the construction sector. Prob bit early yet, but they have had a big decline now, and should start seeing benefits of the falling interest rate here later in the year...

cynic - 15 Feb 2008 14:24 - 1115 of 21973

strorey .... indices are not designed to be restful! .... it's their very volatility that makes them good to trade

stroreysj - 15 Feb 2008 14:34 - 1116 of 21973

Cynic im not disputing that. Maybe it was new toy which i over played when i set up the IG account but I spent my entire day watching tick by tick switching to a gambling mentality rather than researching value stories and effectively trading and making money. Respect to anyone who can do both

cynic - 15 Feb 2008 14:53 - 1117 of 21973

i don't do research ... far too idle

cynic - 15 Feb 2008 15:16 - 1118 of 21973

going blind! ..... indices are flip-flopping about for now so have closed out both dow and ftse for decent profits

will watch more sporadically with a view to perhaps getting back in again later .... if dow tumbles while i am away, will look (probably) to go long at about 12200

bhunt1910 - 15 Feb 2008 15:21 - 1119 of 21973

stroreysj - I can empathise with the gambling bit.

Have only been doing this a few days and have been sucked in big time. Am loving it - but am totally knackered as all I do is watch every little tick and decide what to do. I have become a gambler - which worries me - 'cos that is not what I set out to do - Problem is I find I am enjoying it.

Made my first real profit today and managed to claw back what I lost yesterday - so have decided to call it a day today and try and keep my profit !!

Thanks again to those willing to post their thoughts on here. I am not a financial analyst - so I am grateful to those that are willing to post their thoughts on here very useful indeed.

explosive - 15 Feb 2008 19:20 - 1120 of 21973

Been shorting DOW and GBP/JPY all day, very happy...

Done it again, wrote DOW instead of Wall St. ....Must break the habit...

explosive - 15 Feb 2008 19:39 - 1121 of 21973

Swiss Franc falling nicely away now, looks undervalued to turn soon, anyone also watching GBP/CHF

BigTed - 15 Feb 2008 22:25 - 1122 of 21973

Lot more reading, and its all doom and gloom in the states, quite surprised that it is holding this level, and to think two nights ago i bottled clicking the button as a short at 12570, gut and instincts come to mind...

spitfire43 - 16 Feb 2008 08:54 - 1123 of 21973

gut and instinct is warning me that dow could go pop next week, it's held above 12200 well considering all the doom and gloom about. tempted to open short fairly small position with wide S/L and try and follow it down.

target 5300 on ftse

cynic - 16 Feb 2008 09:17 - 1124 of 21973

with Dow closing at 12350 and staying there after hours, its next direction is anyone's guess ..... in the very very short term, how F/E reacts may give some clue .... in the longer term, do not forget that the markets tend to look about 6 months forward, so if any recession is perceived as being not too deep or long-lived, the up-trend, supported from memory at 12200 or thereabouts, may continue .... nevertheless, volatility is almost guaranteed, giving a lot of opportunity to make (or lose) money

just noticed ..... Wall Street closed Monday

moneyplus - 16 Feb 2008 14:15 - 1125 of 21973

I've always been very nervous of trading but reading your comments I'm tempted to dip my toe in!! Buy and hold is a disaster at the moment nearly all my stocks are red. I've just ordered some books to educate myself on s/betting --that should keep me busy for a while.

cynic - 16 Feb 2008 14:46 - 1126 of 21973

be well warned that trading the indices requires much diligence

spitfire43 - 16 Feb 2008 16:22 - 1127 of 21973

Wall Street closed Monday!!!! thats a bit ominous, the last time on 21st Jan markets misbehaved with FTSE down 323 points on the day. Until the cat returned to restore some order.

BigTed - 16 Feb 2008 16:51 - 1128 of 21973

Am in agreement with Richard, that because the markets look forward, (near) recession is pretty well priced in, although still think any serious bad data, will have the dow tumbling one last time, before gaining some respectability.
In the same instance, the problem to watch in the future will be inflation, because if the americans are enticed back to borrowing lots more dosh this year, which is inevitable, there may be bigger problems ahead when interest rates have to go up sharply next year...

halifax - 16 Feb 2008 17:11 - 1129 of 21973

Come on scarebabies the slowdown in global economies will not manifest itself before 3rd quarter 2008 by which time it will become apparent that the doomsters have been proven to be just a bunch of scaremongers. It is very difficult to change a supertankers course all we need is a temporary speed reduction. Inflation is not to be feared but controlled this should not prove too difficult with the oil price likely to fall to $65/70 in the near term.
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