for more information about stanelco click on the links.

driver's research page link
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=7681#lastread
website link
http://www.stanelco.co.uk/index.htm

Amities / SS What do you mean when you say i must have lost out ? Lest it has unescaped your notice i have been short on SEO since it was 22p. l am not holding a long. @+

what a crappy day! personally i do see a bounce from here after the panic selling today... i maintain that the 20p days will take a long time to reemerge..

KBC Peel Hunt 06/09/2005

Stronger balance sheet. The recent fund raising and part sale of
Biotec has improved the groups cash position from the start of the
year with a current cash balance of around 7m.



EVO 04/10/2005

Mkt Cap 151m Net Cash 10m


Part of the difference is no doubt in the Biotec deal

Stanelco and SP Metal had initially agreed to increase Biotec's production
capacity of biodegradable pellets to at least 12,000 metric tonnes within nine
months via a joint investment programme of up to 4.5m. However due to further
recent improvements in both the production procedures and the ability to process
the materials, a capacity of 24,000 tonnes for an investment of 2m is now
envisaged within the same period.


Anyway, the bashers lose again, their lies are exposed yet again .... NEXT !!!!

shamona

I don't mind anyones views on my previous post, they are all welcome as long as they are sensible comments. I asked Paul as he has the best expertise for research on this thread. I don't always agree with his views and in the past he has not always agreed with me but we have never got personal. His research has done more to assist me and than most. I always dmor and dont take anything as gospel. Please anyone wishing to comment re the Ossid tray sealer do so.

Yet again still comments re RNS for every contracts signed. I suggest we close the argument. There are some that continue to state an announcement will be released at every contract ( for contract I keep reading every machine conversion ) and those like myself who don't expect an announcement in these circumstances. We can argue this forever, and it will mean nothing. Lets agree to differ and allow time to tell. If I am wrong I will admit same.

PM1

Surely you knew about the Ossid tray. It must have come up in your research. If it did, then you have only been informing people of what you personally consider positive about SEO to this board.

If it didn't, then you must have a very funny filter on your search engine which to excludes material "contrary to the future business prospects of SEO"

Any comments?

The oily one

Paul,

I assure you I am not baiting you, trying to trap you , being facetious etc. but you say:-

'Anyway, the bashers lose again, their lies are exposed yet again .... NEXT !!!! '

Just so we dont miss anything - what lies are you referring to, please? I'm sure I cant be the only one who misses your point.

As the sp has dropped to c12p, if the no of shares in issue is approx 800m - then the share capitalisation is less than 100m.

Is that likely to trigger a sell off from some of the institutions who buy small caps >100m?. It seemed to be a trigger on the way up when we broached the 100m fugure - so surely the reverse will happen on the way down.

Anyone know?

This from the Hardman report over a year ago(see below), just goes to show how wrong the so called experts can be. One also notes Masterson rolling out the broker forecasts, if they can't even get within 3 million pounds for the correct cash at hand then the rest of us have no hope. One also notes he rolls out the "basher" stuff, no one bashed anything! some questioned why it might be falling so quickly but i never read anything else.

HARDMAN REPORT SEPT 04

The recently announced licensing agreement with Robert Reiser & Company, Inc, is a potential breakthrough for Stanelco. Stanelco is granting Reiser an exclusive licence in the US and Canada for its RF sealing technology to be used in tray lidding machines, together with a non-exclusive licence for other technologies. Reiser was the pioneer of the tray lidding market, but we understand its market share has declined so that it is now the second or third largest player in this market; its move to RF could be a way to regain share. The Reiser agreement envisages 100 machines being converted from thermal sealing to RF over the next year. However we believe it is likely that more machines will in fact be converted, with 100 merely the minimum firmcommitment. Some retrofitting will be carried out as well as producing new machines with RF rather than thermal sealing. We believe the venture could make 3m turnover for Stanelco in its first year. Because royalties are paid on an annual basis, Stanelco will be creating a source of recurring income, so that a similar level of sales in the second year would see turnover double. Our projections are based on Stanelco adding 100-200 machines a year, giving them 1,000 machines by 2009 still only 10% of the total market as it is today, with no assumption of market growth (in fact, the market is growing, particularly in the US). That is in our view a highly conservative projection

bhunt

Their are 928 million shares in issue

yeah on this issue I agree with sham :-)

There is indeed 928m shares in issue.

Greekman Hi,

Re the Ossid tray sealer, just been reading it, and it doesn't say how it seals the trays, but it sounds like they are using stretchy cling flim, maybe they glue it, but it doesn't sound like it does MAP, and that is Greenseals killer punch.

Maybe we will get to see more on it later, it would be interesting to see exactly how it works, so as to form an educated opinion, but the article as is, does not provide enough answers.

It says 'foam trays', and so that is another reason why I don't see it as MAP possible, all the gas would leak trough the foam !

Cheers,
PM

Oily Hi,

Blah blah blah .... you said she said he said .... blah blah blah .... did didn't should have could have .... blah blah blah !

Get a grip mate, your starting to sound like ii or the sham .... that article only came out TODAY !!!!

Ossid Corporation, 2005-Oct-11


Some of us have to work for a living ....

Cheers,
PM

proptrade
today was just normal for a day when the share was being actively traded. There is weakness but this was absolutely not panic selling. That may still happen. Lots of the buys came in because day-trading shorters were closing after seeing profits. IMO this is happening because the bid/offer price is pretty narrow

I stand corrected - so its not a problem then until the share prices hits 11p.

Ok then - so hypothetically - when the sp hits 11p tomorrow - the same question. What is the likely impact - if any ?

baza

i don't know , baza. i haven't been in that situation before. you are correct in saying that hitting 100m m/c did give seo a leg up on the way up so it would follow that the reverse is true. let's hope we don't get there.

Think you may be right on that Baza.
Lets face it, it happens all the time when companies move between FTSE 100 and 250 etc. etc. as all the "tracker" or passively managed funds have to either buy or sell in order to stick to their prospectus.
Alan

baza: I doubt whether the 100M pound mark is a key issue. I mentioned two or three days ago that I felt the cap justified on fundamentals was around 100M (revised to 150M in the event that the Starpol expected announcements indicated a value on 50M for that product). I think its worth having a clear idea of a reasonable expectation of what current cap. should be without hype and without factoring in future announcements that are not guaranteed. I will spell this viewpoint out which is pretty consistent with the viewpoint of proptrade given earlier today.

My view is that the 200 machines from ASDA can be taken as read. The reason is that we would have to be told if the forecast is to be marked down as it is in the public domain. Note that SEO will not, in my view, and should not, release details on every order or even group of orders; a trading statment is in order if there is good reason for it, e.g. period end or a significant new contract. KBC Peel Hunt advised that each 100 machines retrofitted by SEO were worth 2.5p on the sp. Thus 10p is justified for SEO on the basis of a projection of 400 machines, i.e. 200 from ASDA and 200 from others; the period need not be the year ending 2006 but rather the orders delivered in hand. 10p is approximately a cap. of 92m. We should know more in the next week or two what Starpol is worth in revenue terms.

The other factor that seems to have been largely ignored by the market is that KBC Peel Hunt have upped their forecast earnings for 2006 to 7.3M which represents a pe of 14 at a cap of 100M. They are company brokers and work on the most up-to-date info available. I expect that there are quite significant earnings in that figure for Starpol and quite likely for frogpack et al. So we are hankering after RNSs when the info has been provided from a reputable source. If it it had been Evolution, there would be much more room for doubt. The key conclusion is that we are now pretty well at the stage when futures are no longer priced in to the sp.

Having said that, could the price move lower? Today has been alarming as the fall has gathered pace on significant volumes. What I called as a support level around the last placing price of 13.75M has been breached big time on significant volumes. TFC calls a signifant institutional seller as the reason but I suspect that today has had a lot of stop losses breached and I see evidence of significant shorting activity.

It is helpful, I suspect, to look at the lessons from last year's darling, ASOS. Price moved from single figures up to 75p plus and touched 90p. Then they reported that profit margins had dropped in the Xmas season due to warehopusing problems caused by unprecendented volumes. The sp faded to 42p (lucky to call the bottom) and has only now recovered to 70p. (Incidentally, worth going long ahead of the quarterly statement next Monday!) The bb is lucky to get one or two posts per week compared with 100+ per day for SEO. A new warehouse has put those problems in the past and none of the fundamentals for ASC have changed.

The interest in SEO remains yet the bearish momentum is gathering pace. It would take a lot to reverse that trend. There will be a lot of traders who will be making a lot of money, like TFC, in shorting the stock. So it could go to 10p or below. But I would see this as overshooting and therefore a real buying opportunity - not necessarily going long until it is clear that momentum is changing.

Finally,it is worth repeating that the fundamentals have been strengthening during the year with one significant exception. As I have said a day or two ago, the company raised expectations too high in terms of the time it would take for the ASDA agreement to get off the ground. I would prefer them to say that they did get it wrong - but those of us in business must have been in that position, probably several times; having been in IT I am fully aware of the problems in forecasting; come on chaps, we are dealing with high tech. innovation, ground-breaking stuff. I suspect also that Stanelco, the company, have been overly concerned with putting out news, rather than waiting for concrete announcements. Thats great whilst news is flowing but, and you can see the insatiable desire on this bb, it eventually leads to problems when there is no hard 'news' to announce.

Conclusion? The short term is difficult to call. But we are returning to real buying opportunities for what will probably be a less steep rise but probably that much longer and consistent. Wishful thinking? Rather based on analysis of the fundamentals - happy to justify. Risk? Always was risky and will remain so for the next year or so - would we want it otherwise? that's where the filthy lucre is!

Eric

Thanks Eric - perhaps my top up at 12p was a bit premature - but its done now - will have to wait and see what the next few weeks bring us.

Regards Baza

baz. My prediction is that you won't regret ineed it may well be at least a LOL situation! Awfully difficult to call the bottom - did it both this year and last with ASC but can't think of another instance. I'm far too much of an optimist to call the top!

Eric