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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fred1new - 10 Jun 2005 13:28 - 112 of 1009

9/10/2005 is seems a long way a way. But I have just had a look at atticipated EPS from comdirect and Sharescope and Barclays. They seem to be giving slightly lower figures but I don't think they are building in the effects of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, advances in fuel card returns, or Voca and Mi-Pay.

My "guesses" or are they "hopes" are similar to overgrowth.

Fred1new - 10 Jun 2005 13:37 - 113 of 1009

Information request. I think the majority of RTD output is based on Software rather than hardware. If so the rate of growth now that the basic R+D has been done should be increasing in speed. Fundy tell me I am not wrong.

Fundamentalist - 10 Jun 2005 13:46 - 114 of 1009

Fred

personally would expect a slowdown in R&D as a business matures, however, in a technology business, where the technology is continually required to be one step ahead of the fraudster then i expect that the slowdown will only be minor. Also, there will be greater R&D costs as the company looks into new areas i.e the latest contract had a 300k r&D spend included

Douggie - 16 Jun 2005 10:56 - 115 of 1009

there isn't much to say is there....................

skyhigh - 16 Jun 2005 11:33 - 116 of 1009

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!

Oakapples142 - 16 Jun 2005 12:31 - 117 of 1009


Its Ok Douggie - Broker Lewis Charles makes it a buy recommendation to-day with a 12 month "fair value" of 37.5p

overgrowth - 16 Jun 2005 15:44 - 118 of 1009

I think the price has got stuck.

I think fundy could be spot on looking to get back in during July - RTD is going to break out from here, though sentiment doesn't seem to be ready to let that happen right at the moment.

Oakapples - do Lewis Charles have any analysis to go with their recommendation ?

Oakapples142 - 16 Jun 2005 15:54 - 119 of 1009


Sorry overgrowth cant find any details as yet - just had two winners on the trot at York (first bet this year) but will research later.

m0dulus - 16 Jun 2005 16:04 - 120 of 1009

Any reasons for the price not moving?

Again its a patient game...

overgrowth - 16 Jun 2005 16:11 - 121 of 1009

oakapples - I bet you wish you went for an accumulator now lol!

m0dulus - some avid level 2 watchers believe that a very large order is being filled, the MMs are boring investors and traders to death keeping the price constant and forcing sells to meet the order. The theory being that when the order is filled we'll suddenly see the MMs marking up the price quickly into the 30's and that will be the trigger point for everyone to buy back in.

m0dulus - 16 Jun 2005 16:13 - 122 of 1009

OG

so when do u think the next mark up will be?

overgrowth - 16 Jun 2005 16:20 - 123 of 1009

Very tricky to call - I have a decent holding in RTD, though am tempted to run a T25 also, because at the current price the company is well undervalued IMHO and short term gains will be up for grabs soon.

If a large buy appears it's likely to be within the next two weeks which will be a signal to buy in.

If not, then we may see a final dip and a sizeable bounce back, keep a close eye on volumes. Larger than normal buying volumes on a day without any news or press coverage would be a reasonable signal to buy in.

Fundamentalist - 16 Jun 2005 16:31 - 124 of 1009

Og

lets hope youre right :-)

a lot will depend on whether a trading update appears early july (last yr was 1st july but they have no obligation) otherwise next main news will be half yr results in september

Douggie - 16 Jun 2005 18:50 - 125 of 1009

pleased to have at least held steady during a mainly negative trades week...;o/

what price a blue friday.????????????????

Fred1new - 16 Jun 2005 21:41 - 126 of 1009

Overgrowth, they must be very small orders as the volumes for the last week are small. I am surprised that the SP and volumes haven't moved up a shade or two, but wonder if some of the spare cash hasn't found its way to SEO. Some to the punters are the same.

I think we have to cross our legs until there is a company update.

Relax Douggie Relax.

Douggie - 17 Jun 2005 09:09 - 127 of 1009

;-/

overgrowth - 23 Jun 2005 10:18 - 128 of 1009

There's not been much activity on here for a while lol!

I note that Craig Ray (investment manager at Wilson King) says that RTD is "poised for further growth" and recommends "add" in Shares mag. today.

Trading statements have come out in June/July for the past 3 years, there should be one on its way v.soon.

You can bet that it will be stonkingly good also, because of several factors:

1) High oil prices (ensures bumper profits from Oz fuel cards).

2) Favourable exchange rates (benefits US business and Oz fuel card business).

3) New revenue coming from new contracts e.g. Macys, Bloomingdales etc.

4) New revenue coming in from joint ventures.

The price has been well supported at this level - definitely "the bottom".

Time to top up/buy back in IMHO because I have a feeling that when the trading statement comes out the sp will be back to the mid 30's in the blink of an eye.

Fred1new - 23 Jun 2005 10:49 - 129 of 1009

Agreed, but it has been a longer wait than I expected. Wish I had done the same as you last time selling at about 36-38p I believe.

overgrowth - 23 Jun 2005 10:53 - 130 of 1009

Fred, hindsight trading's a doddle lol!

RTD could just as easily have bounced of 35p and gone soaring to 50p at the time.

50p by the end of the year will do for me.

overgrowth - 23 Jun 2005 16:53 - 131 of 1009

It looks as though this is the turning point we've been waiting for.

Fundy - may be worth jumping back in now rather than at the end of July it appears that the flatliner trend has been broken, I can see some swift price increases coming along over the next few days.

Where's douggie ?

He only seems to appear to moan about any dips lol!
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