Thank you Eddie
http://www.falklandnews.com/public/story.cfm?get=3206&source=3
Falklands Oil: Don't Invest the Rent Money - Yet
April 19, 2005
by J. Brock (FINN)
FALKLANDS OIL: DONT INVEST THE RENT MONEY.YET
By J. Brock (FINN)
A very positive picture of the potential of finding at least 2 billion barrels of oil in the North Falkland Basin was presented to a Desire Petroleum shareholders meeting on Monday night. Approximately 35 local shareholders and others attended the meeting, held in the Chamber of Commerce function room. Dr. Colin Phipps, a co founder of Desire Petroleum, told the gathering that the hydrocarbons bonanza could be locked beneath the source rock of Desires Tranches, C and D in the basin.
It wont be until December 2005 or early 2006 that a rig is due to be brought down to the area, presumably from Brazil or West Africa, to begin the exploration process. Getting a rig from the UKs North Sea is considered to be too expensive but at the moment, Desire are looking for a cost-effective way to bring a rig to their exploration area. Transporting a rig can cost nearly $50 Million but Desire hope to reduce the cost, as only 25 Million towards the project was raised when stock floated on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM)? Admittedly there are more investors interested in the project than were allowed to invest. The stock was over-subscribed and people had to be turned away.
According to Dr. Phipps, the rig will drill three holes that could cost of approximately $10 Million each at a location of 118 to 125 miles north of the Falkland Islands. Due to the thickness of source rock in the area, it is expected to take longer per hole to drill than the more shallow holes done when the Borgny Dolphin in 1997/98.
According to Mr. Ian Duncan, Desires recently appointed Chief Executive, the 3D seismic, which has been obtained from GSI Admiral, indicates structural lines indicate heavy accumulations of oil in what he described as hydrocarbon kitchens. The 3D data is being re-evaluated and re-worked at the moment.
In an earlier interview with Dr. Phipps, it was indicated that no one actually knows if the seismic is right until a hole is drilled that produces hydrocarbons in commercial quantities. Until now, the average expectation per hole was indicators of hydrocarbons at various depths. Shell did a bit better on their drills though nothing in commercial quantities was found. But keep in mind, none of the drills got through the thick source rock and what lays under it, very promising indeed, is still unknown.
Peak Well Management has been recruited by Desire Petroleum to design aspects of the rig and to manage the drilling. It is expected that the company will employ approximately 100 men and women to work on the rig as well as stationing some 15 people in Stanley. Crews could be changed in the same manner as they were in 1998 however, it is expected that the LanChile flight will be used to repatriate them once their stints in the South Atlantic finish. The affects on the Falklands economy at this stage should be minimal.
To make exploration viable, the cost per barrel of Brent Crude should be around $17.00 per barrel. Fortunately the price of oil is now hovering around $50.00. However, indications are that scenarios making prices unusually high could, at the whim of market forces, change considerably. Indeed, warnings about the AIM have been issued on Monday that it could be overheating. We need to keep an eye on this. At least, wait for the stock price to dip a little before deciding to buy. Buying when its high is not a good idea.
Though the seismic is excessively promising, a roller coaster ride looms ahead. There may be enough oil to last us for 25 to 30 years but we have got to tap the reserves first before we can go further with speculating actualisation $182 million per annum. Pipe dreams about who is going to occupy what building in centre Stanley can also be snuffed out. Theres too much real estate recently vacated for 15 men. Should commercial quantities of hydrocarbons be found things could change, but that change would be moderate while the data from the first successful hole is evaluated..
The ride is not for the faint-hearted. Dont invest the rent money. yet.