how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Futures looking strong, http://www.cbot.com/cbot/dow/fivequotes/0,2656,2%2B12,00.html and I am short. B****r!
I'm hoping for a drop from an open at 10500 or so otherwise I will be stopped out.

Hi Everyone,

Just looking in to see how things are going for you.

The sale of my business is perched precariously on a
knife edge so I don't feel my mental state is conducive
to trading at the moment.

Hope to be back with you as soon as possible. In the meantime
good luck with your trading. Speak soon.

PS Happy New Year.

Harlosh

Harlosh; nice of u to drop in and leave us a line. Hope your sale goes through.

Hello guys/gals:
Ym to open in 6mins or so. Alan greenspan speech at 16.00 gmt.Lets see what the beast has in store for us today.Traded in a tight rannge yesterday and may either break up or down probably after the Greenspan speech.Maybe an up day today.

rgds
zarif

Hope it works out Harlosh.

Today is a good example of why it is good to have a system.
This morning I was sure the retracement was over and my short would be stopped out. However I am up 24 points up as we speak. Sticking to the system is the hardest part of having one but it invariably pays off.

and a few more!!!!!!! wow! what did greenspan say?

Wow in Dow today!!!!
Do u think it will jump up at end??????

10500 is still main resistance I reckon, zarif.
will it jump? I haven't got a clue. ;-)

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

7.00 AM ET. MBA Refinancing Index (last +6.8%)

8:30 AM ET. December Producer Price Index (seen +0.2%; last -0.3%)

8:30 AM ET. December Producer Price Index, ex-food and energy (seen
+0.1%; last -0.1%)

8:30 AM ET. November International Trade Deficit (seen $42 Bln; last
$41.77 Bln)

2:00 PM ET. Fed Beige Book

Reckon it is going to be going up possibly past 10500 -10560 then short like crazy. Have got along on from lastnight and looking to see what it throws at us.I reckon by friday should be going down if not sooner. I see the dollar is trying a rebound. lets see what happens. remember dont overtrade as then there is no margin left.

trade wisely and safely

rgds
zarif

dow stagnant at present.beige book results out today.

Where is everyone? Gone to Mars? I watch this thread with interest but it has fallen off the bottom of the 'list' page - so I am bringing it back up.

Managed a nice short today on the March futures from 10548 down to 10498. Thank you Mr Dow.

I had two positions open. long and short and I have just closed the long now. Had a good day both ways on the Dow.

Jonp
I was away all day today-just got in and the long is doing well atm.
Bravo for u to bring the thread up to the top again and please keep posting as all comments good/bad are welcome.

famished off to get some supper now

rgds
zarif

Me too Jonp. I was up in the big city celebrating my sisters birthday yesterday. I've just got back.
Good idea moving us back up to the top.
Nice 50 points you got there.
I'm looking to go long at the close.
BTW I will be uploading an up to date chart tonight.
The system signalled long at yesterday close.

Jonp & javidshaik, I would be interested to know if you use a system to trade the Dow.

Hi snoball - yes I do use a system - But saying that are you thinking of an entry system or exit system - often people seem just to think in terms of entry - but I have come to believe that exit is even more important.

And when I analyse what I do a few simple rules quickly adds up to something very complicted. As I am a IT Consultant by trade maybe I should code it up and let it run automatically - actually it would probably make more money than me operating it - but you know what they say about black box systems.......

However simply: Entry - I use RSI as my main indicator to show something interesting is happening. Then try to decide whether this represents a turning point or a trend. I have a simple filter for that based on fractals - then set stops to take me in. That's the easy bit. Exit - use market stops and I like to exit on a limit. Usual story - move stops: to break even early, to lock in profit.

Since the mini Dow moved to ECBOT I reckon I have lost about 1 point per trade as the stops are no longer held in the exchange. No wonder they installed the LIFFE-CONNECT system that 1 point per trade must be going somewhere.

Hi snoball,
i have a system but for long term use and then play it by ear for the day.
i use moving averages (exponential for short term 10/20 day and simple for long term 100/200 day). I have been long for sometime after the moving averages crossed.
i also use rsi as a main indicator which i find the most useful for day to day basis.
i am not a professional as I am an IT Consultant too.
i use sharescope for uk and esignal for usa.
hope that helps.
ps. doing well on dow so far today.

In addition to the above comment, i used the same moving averages for buying retail decisions (RTD) toward the end of november and have made a good profit from that so far. it has still got more to go in my opinion but you can see where the moving averages crossed over around 20th november. i bought shortly after. RTD has now formed a cup and handle which is nearly always a good sign for the share to go up. You might want to look at that for a dabble. Sorry for off topic but i thoguht you might all find it useful. RTD - why thread for further details to anyone who is interested.

Jonp & javidshaik,

Thanks for your insights. It's interesting that your systems are basically simple. I've learnt that that simple seems best in the long run.
Jonp, do you use a longer term rsi, say 21 days, or shorter? javidshaik, I use a 20 day price break out to determine trend. i.e. Donchian channels. So a break above a 20 day high starts the medium term trend off until a break below a 20 day low. I then like to use a short term average within that trend as an entry signal.
My main problem is sticking to the rules but I am learning. This recent bull trend on the Dow is making my trading figures look good for the moment.
I'll check out the RTD thread. I have only been trading the Dow and would like to try something else.

Afternoon everybody:
Many thanks to Javaid and JonP for your comments and plase keep it up as all the scenarios and strategies help build up a better picture and fit the small pieces in this never ending jigsaw puzzle.

Regarding ny views on the dow for today:
I reckon it is going up north and then southwards -big time hopefully. The key level i am watching for shorting is 10670 area if it gets there.Also beware of the overshoots as its pointless to try and predict the tops or bottome of market as it is limitless.

finally here is my two pence worth:--

"Everything is coming up roses for now it would appear, but this kind of runup in price without "healthy" or "normal" corrections is actually a very dangerous scenario technically as it creates situations where everyone tries to leave the room at once. (My apologies for the broken record here, folks.) For now it appears that we will make new highs yet again today, but I still insist on an imminent reversal scenario - and the longer this market pushes higher, the more dramatic and sudden that reversal will be. We're already getting into pretty dramatic territory. This market is white hot.
So trade well and trade wisely.If in doubt stay out."

rgds
zarif