rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Luck plays a large part in my decisions - I tend not to take too much notice of all the information available cos I dont know how to analyse it - but I do watch the charts and take note of the economic diaries.

I dabbled about 2 years ago and lost too much money cos I was just takiing a punt - but I have been watching you guys - and now I take bigger "punts" over a longer period of time - and so far I have done very well.

I have learnt not to always be in the market - which was my downfall last time

I currently have a small punt in gold long and am out of the FTSE for now

USD Core Retail Sales m/m 1.0% consensus 0.5% previous 0.2%

USD Retail Sales m/m 1.1% consensus 0.5% previous 0.1%

USD Import Prices m/m 1.1% consensus 0.5% previous 0.6%

ok Skinny - so are those figures good or bad ? I would interpret them as better than expected - is that the case ?

They show that the US economy is growing so you could say on that basis they're good numbers. The current world is fixated with growth though, which I don't think is such a good thing. You have to remember also that the US is pumping alot of money into its economy at the moment. The sequester will scale back some spending but ultimatly if you print money to plough into the economy then you'd expect it to achieve growth. On that basis you could say the figures are expected, or better than expected going by the analysts consensus figures...

Also

"Federal Reserve won't stop its quantitative easing programme before the end of 2014 as it will take time to get down to the 7.25% jobless rate signalled by the central bank."

The real question is what will all this QE ultimatly do to inflation in the US, sure its the worlds reserve currency and we've seen spikes on lots of commodities such as gold all priced in USD. If investors sold out of gold and commodities experienced a bear run over a period of time by how much would the USD weaken... Theres also the possibility that commodities could well become priced in other currencies in the future.

USD Business Inventories m/m 1.0% consensus 0.5% previous 0.1%

Shortie,

The money supply needs to reach the economy before you'll see a rise in inflation. At the moment, the QE is going on to the banks' balance sheets and isn't reaching the consumer.

Until all the 'bank bashing' stops and the bank capital requirement threats are lifted, the central bank printing presses can run 24/7, but very little QE money will get as far as the real economy.

Hils, what about increases in price due to higher costs of imports because of sterling's weakness? Suppose it's demand driven as well, and higher costs reduce demand.

Yep. I think you just answered your own question there, Floss.

:o)

Two halves of the same brain working in sync. Amazing!

I can think of many government departments crying out for staff with that unique talent.

:o)

Creates a bubble in the markets though, as soon as QE ends and the pump stops running investors will cash in and run.

What day this week is that?

US 10 year bond auction @5pm.

Mmmm, just waiting to re-apply my FTSE shorts, looks like the rally is getting underway now..

a good day today one way and another ....... sold TCG at a good profit and then went short - that is now in the money ....... bought back FTSE for a very acceptable profit and then switched to Dow long, which is also now in the money

i must try working one day :-)

Shortie,

Whether or not there's a bubble will surely depend upon how adept the central bankers are at recognising the early signals and reacting by slowing the presses down. If they get it right, I don't see why it should be a problem if you take other factors into account as well.

Given their track record, however, I suspect that you will be right and they won't react quickly enough. History shows that markets invariably overshoot, first one way and then back the other way. All markets portray those traits, and they will always continue to do so. Isn't that why you trade them though?

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

Now who was it that once said 'no more boom or bust'? Oh yes, it was the one-eyed Scottish monster who got us into this mess in the first place.

shh! don't say that too loudly or fred will hear you :-)

God forbid - if this thread gets trashed, I'm off.