I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

Ad of the Week: BA lays it on the line
(Filed: 11/03/2003)


Advertiser BA

Agency M&C Saatchi


Background Life must be tough working for a flag carrier like BA. On the one hand there's a constant battering from the likes of easyJet and Ryanair at the bottom end of the market.

On the other, the worldwide slowdown has hit the more lucrative business travel sector hard. And that's before we even get to a war in the Gulf, with who-knows-what effect on travel, business or otherwise.

It's the kind of market in which mere survival is a triumph. So the idea of product innovation seems a bit pointless at the moment. Why bother making things better if no one's going to fly anyway?

BA at least is not a subscriber to this mode of thought. Its latest innovation is the completely flat bed, now available on all business class flights. Bravely perhaps in the current climate, it is out selling the message to its target business flyer market.

What happens It's night in Times Square. A bed sits on the sidewalk. A fully clothed man gets into it. Next we see the bed in Piccadilly Circus. It's dawn. Bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, the man gets out and walks off. The signature music, by Delibes, kicks in.

Comment Advertising always works better when it has a clear product benefit to sell. There's no doubting the message here, which is brutally simple: BA is the only airline with flat beds. Even a half-wit can understand that means you get a better sleep

Guardian Diary - It makes a change to hear British Airways announcing a new route, but the world's second favourite airline (after Lufthansa) is soon to offer departures from London to Tashkent, capital city of Uzbekistan. As a novel alternative to Tuscany or the Dordogne for this summer's holidays, Uzbekistan is hard to beat. Where, in the restaurants of Bergerac or Siena, can you buy decent plov - wok-fried mutton, yellow turnip and rice - to match that of old Tashkent? And at 1,535 soms to the pound, you'll love those crazy Uzbeki prices. BA are surely on to a winner here.

I still don't know what a quarter unit is, how many shares is it?

That's my business ...... I don't ask you what you earn and I don't say what I trade .... It's not the British way ..... everything is relative - a million to me may be the same as a thousand to you or vikiverki




ains

Trader ainsey,

what a track record! Have you thought about setting up a shorting fund ?

F

my track record on BAY is excellant and have lots of profits to build up a stake .... suggest you go and do some research or at least read the thread before further comment

I have an order in for sub 9Op and will take my holding to 0.75 units



ains

ains, stop it, you're making me laugh too much :-))

i'm a quarter shorter as of this morning :-))

Have a look at this post snappy and look at your comments above ..... see what I mean? :-))




ainsoph - 11 Mar'03 - 11:02 - 583 of 583 edit



sooner the better snappy ..... in the meantime it's probably best you don't comment and mislead peeps - either on the maths or the brokers notes.

As for you being ahead of anything - that hasn't come through at all - your posts are banal - misleading and carry no original info or thinking .... to be frank



ains

What was that magic staement u made about BT.A Ains.....

LOL - where have u been recently on BAY Ains?

thanks for the tips on Hong Kong tp, had a great time and will visit again.

Virgin Atlantic fare to HK is cheaper than this former flag flyers fare.

I see the transatlantic carriers are making all tickets flexible even the lowest priced economy ones due to ongoing geopolitical concerns and a lack of bookings no doubt.

*****

Terms and conditions
This offer is available on British Airways long haul bookings made between 14 February and 17 March. The number of passengers and names of passengers must remain the same as the original booking. Any additional passengers must be booked and paid for independently at an applicable fare for the itinerary.

*Passengers will have to pay the additional supplement (including difference in taxes) if the change results in the passenger travelling in a more expensive travel period (i.e. Easter, Summer months or Xmas), a higher booking class or cabin or to a destination where the price at the desired time of travel is more expensive than the original time of travel.

Passengers will be given a refund for the difference (including difference in taxes), if the change results in the passenger travelling in a less expensive travel period (i.e. off peak), a lower booking class or cabin, or to a destination where the price at the desired time of travel is less than the original time of travel.


Passengers must retain their tickets and these will form their 'credit note' for rebooking their journey with British Airways before 31 May 2003. All travel on revised itinerary must be completed by 31 December 2003. Only one change can be made which must be made at least 72 hours before departure date. Administration or cancellation charges may apply to hotels, cars and internal full published fares.

Trader ainsey,

I'm beginning to feel you might be a quarter short of a full unit.

F

now have 3/4 of a unit and looking for a dip to take it higher ..... average cost around 92p now if I exclude the profits banked from last time :-)

ROFLMAO

LOL - irony clearly lost!!! LOL I don't understand why you persist with this new measurement 'unit'. I suppose in your mind, with your units your well ahead on all your trades!!!!
For us simpletons who trade shares/lots even bars we have to use traditional methods of calculating P+L, Ainsoph has his own unique 'units', and hes up nearly a whole one!!! Oh dear-O-dear
"..... average cost around 92p now if I exclude the profits banked from last time :-)"
thats a good one, also excluding your purchases @ 180 then too!?

SNAPPY - I fly to BKK 2morrow, after which I will have earned enough air miles 4 a free trip anywhere in the immediate area, i reckon ill plump for HK. Where did u go in the end?

Now starting to show a marginal gain ..... always good to get it right

Stayed in Causeway bay, which of course is near Wan Chai. Spent 4 days up on top a mountain enjoying the view and enjoying all the smiles from the female population!

ains: don't know about your 'units', but this stock and BT are each down 18% in the month since you started the threads. Do yourself and us a favour, please!:-)

;D
I love being single and in Asia(since when was being single a prob thoguh!), Wan Chai is fun too. I have relatives by Aberdean tunnel and stanley mrkt, spoilt 4 choice, wish they'd give me a job!!!

Ains-What are you talking about, bid 92.5, so u've decided ur long from 92p eh? u'll still lose imo!