The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

From Fillyaboots forum, not PET news but closely related as a particular posterfrom advfn(you all know the one) was raving on about how PET would not get anything as they broke sanctions when Saddam was in power, yet this article shows the exact opposite. One thing that I find interesting is the award to JP Morgan and HSBC of some Banking contracts awarded by the interim Government.
Does this mean that they are in the process i.e. of announcing contracts in other areas during the coming days. I suspect it does..

Both these companies were doing business with Saddam and don't forget Petrel had agreements in place before the war. So maybe the time is near




Busted banks get
Iraq contracts

WASHINGTON - The interim Iraqi government awarded contracts to two multinational banks fined for violating American sanctions against Iraq during the regime of ousted dictator Saddam Hussein, records show.

J.P. Morgan Chase, the New York bank giant chosen by U.S. officials to manage the Trade Bank of Iraq, paid a Treasury Department fine four years ago to resolve allegations its Chase Manhattan Bank allowed a $50,000 transfer involving Saddam's Iraq, a CIA report found.

Bids from 58 banks from around the world were considered in selecting the consortium led by J.P. Morgan. The financial services company and Britain's HSBC were the only banks on the list that paid fines for Iraq-related violations.

The U.S.-backed Iraqi leaders awarded one of the first foreign banking licenses in Iraq to HSBC - the only company fined twice for transactions with Saddam's Iraq.

A CIA report last month said Saddam's regime also stashed illicit oil profits in accounts at an HSBC branch in Jordan.

The Associated Press

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=96443&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=27239

well that's enough hunting around for today, see you guys tomorrow


Tokyo

Tokyo

Fascinating posts above. Great to see the sanctions busters rewarded. It shows that the Iraqi's in power (interim!) know who their friends are. It also shows that they don't see the need to wait for the procurement conference before cutting deals: there is an advantage in having cases already executed to which they can refer as examples.

The other great post is from your chartist friend. As is obviuos from above, I am a first principles man but come to the same conclusions looking at Friday's trading:

(1) I had suggested that Thursday's trading could be inverted on Friday and this started to happen: (i) sharp mark up on early buying for first hour; (ii) reaction as sellers came in so that by 09:30 price was back to 96.5 and sellers were catching up buyers; (iii) steady buying at the lower level in next 2 hours so price is marked up to 104p; (iv) pretty stable trading through to 15:00 at around this level.

(2) But then look at the trades in the last 3 half-hour periods: buys/sells
109,178/90,071 - price marked up 5 points
111,178/98,714 - price marked up 2 points
239,426/147,685 - price marked up 2 points

This is the MM nightmare scenario - they can only react to increasing buying pressure by marking up the price to bring out sellers and they just don't come in sufficient numbers.

OK, overall volumes are not that great. But what is the reason for the spurt of late buying. The most obviuos reason is that some folk know something. There are a lot of trades: several at 10K plus but nothing really substantial to suggest institutional purchases. Could be an analyst newsletter to suppliers. Or could be that these folk know that an announcement is imminent!

The answer could come in the form of an RNS tomorrow. If not, there is still likely to be a follow through of speculative pressure, as a few weeks ago: the MMs will want to bring the sellers into play and make it harder for the buyers.

Anyway, we're getting closer! Cor! it must be difficult waiting for the market to open!

Eric

Great posts from the regulars! There is a lot going on behind the scenes, we just have to make sure we are there at the right time now, its a day by day thing. Good luck. By the way I'm posting less now cos since I finished doing the job i wanted to do (fish) where I had access to a PC all day, I am now temping so access is limited. Just hope im there at the right time for the explosions!

107606

Don't worry! Your probably better off away from the pc - you may be tempted to sell too soon! Good to be incommunicado until, say, Xmas!

Eric

After an interesting start, we are now seeing red. Looking at the trades it is nothing more than small investors getting spooked yet again, or perhaps a few day traders taking delayed profits from Friday, although in fact I think I maybe to blame as I topped up again first thing, and it always dips a little after I top up, sorry folks!!!(couldn't resist after Jo's e-mail and the job advertisement I posted yesterday, alot of info in my opinion is coming togethre and it all looks positive for PET, and if I'm wrong then, well simply put I lose, but if I'm right.............
Be interesting to see what the MM's do with this stock over the coming week, as I'm sure it is not just us small time investors who are expecting an RNS sometime in the next two weeks

Tokyo

Thanks for the posts yesterday Tokyo very interesting stuff.
If it's not too premature and too forthcoming to ask, how long does everyone envisage hanging on to these shares after we get the positive results we are expecting?

KIRKUK, Iraq (AFX) - Four bombs exploded near oil wells in the Kirkuk region of northern Iraq, triggering fires, a security officer for the installations said.

The officer, Anuza Daali, said the wells targeted were at Al-Khabaza, 30 kilometres (20 miles) from Iraq's oil centre of Kirkuk.

'Fires broke out and we are trying to put them out,' he said, without being able to specify if production was affected.

Northern Oil Company officials were unavailable to comment on the latest acts of sabotage against oil installations in northern Iraq.

str/ps/hc/jlw

sandrew

Three times to sell - I like the greek word 'kairos', the opportune time. Inevitably, there will be a very sharp jump on a positive announcement. Its a matter of judgement whether that will go too far and then settle back. I will certainly take some profits anyway as there is a bit of a queue building up of potential investments. Ideal if you can sense the top of the spike.

At the same time, we should look, as the market will look, at the fundamentals. What is the PET stake, what is the potential PE when the fields are live? I would expect the price to find a level, perhaps after a volatile few days, at a relatively stable level. Second kairos!

As the fields approach production, and the security issues diminish, there should be a ramping up towards an appropriate PE. I would expect PET to negotiating other deals: Block 6, etc. Remember Jeremy Lacey's valid point re PET becoming a Cairn Energy. Third kairos! Perhaps they are four quarters, with the fourth held long term.

Nice to dream but also sensible to be prepared. Depends also on any spending plans from the profits! - and negatively, the fearsome CGT!

Eric

Iraq elections maybe postponed till january [ rns today ]

Morning all,
Tokyo, a good post re; jobs adverts,the only problem with it being PET,
I thought PET said they would only employ locals, i would have thought the Iraqi`s would be experts in all aspects of the oil industry. If they started hiring from this country they might not be classed as neutral.
just a thought ,
Dexter

ps, did you get a good deal on your "final" top-up ?

The job advert said a leading oil company, PET is not a leading company its a very small one. p.s. has anybody phoned to ask the name of company?

Bad news...more bombs near oil-fields...no news of contracts means more downtrend today...

A friend of mine called the Job advertisement, and I'm afraid it was not for PET, it was something completly different and it was to do Well Head repairs for a major Oil Company. Never mind it was a long shot, never afraid to admit when my speculation is wrong. Still VERY happy to hold though, as these penny drops are designed to scare away the smaller investor who has not done any research and panics at the slightest price drop, the wait goes on for the RNS, which is the make or break of this share, the wait goes on as we have all been doing for what feels like an eternity, what is a little longer - anyone with long finger nails left on this thread. LOL

good luck all

Tokyo

Tokyo,
I ain`t got anything long left after i topped-up the other week without telling the boss (wife)!!!!!!!.
Dexter

Dexter, let's hope the boss signs her approval...my boss only approves when the shares make money but otherwise you get the ear-twist. OUCH!

The article: a possible downside to Petrel being given any contract this YEAR!!!
------------------------------------------------------------------------

With eye to future, oil companies give Iraq free help
A Shell spokesman said the company wants to establish "an enduring presence in Iraq."
By Justin Blum, The Washington Post
November 8, 2004

WASHINGTON International oil companies have launched voluntary efforts to train Iraq's oil workers and provide technical assistance, hoping to generate goodwill and eventually get access to the country's huge oil reserves.

Companies from the United States, Britain and Russia including ChevronTexaco Corp., BP, Royal Dutch/Shell Group and Lukoil are paying to send Iraqi oil workers out of the country to teach them the latest techniques in developing and managing oil fields.


In addition, Shell agreed to look into the most effective use of the country's natural gas reserves. Chevron is advising Iraqis on two of the country's biggest oil fields now in production, Kirkuk in the north and Rumaila in the south.

"The industry is about relationships face-to-face relationships count for something," said Lawrence Goldstein, president of the PIRA Energy Group in New York, an international consulting firm. "If you're the company and individuals involved in the face-to-face training, it's clearly beneficial.... It's offensive, it's defensive, it's altruistic in many ways, and it's self-serving."

The companies said they are responding to a need for assistance and are not jockeying to grab the country's oil. They said that they have offered similar voluntary assistance in other oil-rich countries with limited resources.

"We are interested in building long-term relationships with Iraqis and establishing a material and enduring presence in Iraq," Shell spokesman Simon Buerk said.

A spokesman for Iraq's oil ministry said he was not authorized to comment about oil companies' activities, and could not immediately arrange an interview with an official who could.

International oil companies are eager to gain a foothold in Iraq because the country is believed to have the world's second-largest conventional oil reserve, though some analysts said the statistics are questionable.

Iraq nationalized its oil fields in the 1970s, and no foreign companies have been allowed to own fields in the country since. Under Saddam Hussein, some concessions were granted but they were later canceled or never came to pass because of United Nations sanctions.

Iraq is attractive because its oil is considered high quality and relatively cheap to produce, analysts said. Daily oil production in the country has been hampered in recent months because of insurgents' frequent attacks on pipelines. Analysts said Iraq's oil industry is in need of modernization and investment after years of neglect.

The Iraqi government has not established provisions to allow foreign investment in the oil industry, and companies are hoping such measures eventually will be enacted. Oil companies said they expect such decisions will be made after elections in January.

Iraq this summer solicited bids to perform a comprehensive evaluation of the Rumaila and Kirkuk fields, and companies from around the world are awaiting its response to the proposals. The analysis would help determine how much oil is in the ground and how to best pump it.

In one of the goodwill projects, Chevron, based in San Ramon, Calif., is training Iraqi oil company employees as part of a broader "technical service agreement" with the country's oil ministry, said Andrew Norman, a company spokesman.

"The overall aim of the program is to really bring the Iraqis up to date with their petroleum engineering techniques, modern-day operating standards," Norman said. "It was conceived jointly by the ministry and by us. We made it very clear that it was a goodwill gesture on our part. They made it very clear that there will be no payment in kind. There is no quid pro quo."

But he added: "You might reasonably say, 'What's in it for us?' To be honest, this is part of a broader relationship-building effort we have underway. It's important to build relationships with those folks.

At the same time, we understand the interim government doesn't have the mandate to award any oil contracts."

------------------------------------------------------------------------
If this, last para', is true then all e-mail alleging Petrel origin are now questionable.
Is it time to stop chasing rainbows and return to reality?

note the quotation marks, and allow for journalistic interpetation of never allowing the truth to get in the way of a good story.

Alan

The Iraqi government has not established provisions to allow foreign investment in the oil industry, and companies are hoping such measures eventually will be enacted. Oil companies said they expect such decisions will be made after elections in January.

"The industry is about relationships face-to-face relationships count for something," said Lawrence Goldstein, president of the PIRA Energy Group in New York, an international consulting firm. "If you're the company and individuals involved in the face-to-face training, it's clearly beneficial.... It's offensive, it's defensive, it's altruistic in many ways, and it's self-serving."

WHAT DO YOU THINK PETREL HAVE BEEN DOING FOR THE LAST SIX YEARS IN IRAQ?

Also the oil minister himself was quoted as saying the contracts will be awarded by the end of November.

Scottie are you suggesting we take the word of this journalist & companies not in the running for these contracts over all the others and the oil minister himself?

Also ask yourself why Petrel went to Jordan last month for urgent talks and why the Iraqis were in Ireland.(or do you think that was just for a holiday)

They can't award contracts, so this whole tendering process has been one big partical joke....Come on get real!!!!
sorry too many facts that point the other way to take this journalists'or de-rampers' views seriously!!!

If the above posters are worried then it is best for you to get out, and leave us real holders to take the risk and reap the rewards. This stock is still very much a gamble, but posting things like the oil ministry can't give out these 2 contracts expected this month is a little stupid, don't you think, as there is a whole lot of evidence to support the fact that they can, including the current Share price!!

Tokyo

well my prediction has gone down the shute, so my next is top up like the believers if you can, i can't any more and look at the evidence that has been generated before you sell.

watcher

The demonstration of his ignorance of the HSBC and JP Morgan banking contracts shows that the journalist above has not done his homework fully. Its been clear that the Fallujah decision was essentially made by the interim Government sho do seem to be calling more and more of the shots (figuratively and literally). There may be some doubts about the origing of some posts but I would have thought that there was absolutely none concerning the quotes from the Oil Minister. So it shakes some holders out which is hard luck on them and further acquisition opportunities for those who are investing time, as well as money, to follow the situation closely.

Whilst the volumes have been relatively light, it is somewhat baffling seeing people drop out with only two weeks to the end of November, unless its deramping which could lead to fingers being burnt. One thing having no finger nails left! At least they grow again!

Eric