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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

maddoctor - 30 Aug 2007 15:51 - 1154 of 1564

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Neil Hennessy, president of the Hennessy Funds, says that investors should stop worrying about subprime mortgage problems and other negatives and consider how historically low inflation, interest rates and unemployment rates have the market poised for strong long-term performance.

"We are not going into a recession," Hennessy stressed during a radio interview with MarketWatch senior columnist Chuck Jaffe. "What people don't believe today is that we're in a bull market. ... There's nothing for people to be fearful of; if you just sit tight, this will be fine."
Hennessy noted that the methodology of his funds is to pay less than $1.50 in stock price for every $1 in a company's sales. He noted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average currently sells for $1.25 per dollar in sales, which "means we have about a 25% move on the upside" which Hennessy expects to happen in the next two years.
While Hennessy remains optimistic about the future, he's not equally bullish about all industries, noting that he would avoid the technology sector, largely because "I don't see anything on the horizon from the technology area that will revolutionize the way we live."

sned - 30 Aug 2007 15:58 - 1155 of 1564

.

BigTed - 30 Aug 2007 15:59 - 1156 of 1564

have believed all along and still do, that company fundamentals are solid, interest rates are peaking and are historically low, people are still spending and that this is a correction and not the start of a bear market... PE ratios would become ridiculously cheap...

cynic - 30 Aug 2007 21:05 - 1157 of 1564

not sure about US, but am told that London is still looking cheap with overall P/E of about 11 against 20 when the last crash came in 87(?).

for all that, it is sentiment that drives the markets, especially over a short period ...... this, as we all know, can defy any sort of cold logic

PapalPower - 31 Aug 2007 03:09 - 1158 of 1564

You may find this interview interesting viewing.

http://tinyurl.com/2xwh6l

e t - 31 Aug 2007 06:55 - 1159 of 1564



Interest rates likely to keep rising
Read full article here


maddoctor - 31 Aug 2007 19:21 - 1160 of 1564

critical level on the dow , the shorts should move in but with all the interference in the market they must be nervous

maddoctor - 31 Aug 2007 20:16 - 1161 of 1564

the president discussed the need for legislation and changes in the U.S. tax code to help subprime mortgage borrowers avoid losing their homes.

However, analysts and investors said subprime borrowers who are not speculators made up such a small portion of the troubled market that any proposals would bring little change.

"This is more messaging," said Richard Steinberg, president of Steinberg Global Asset Management in Boca Raton, Florida. "It's more pomp."

For that reason, analysts said investors in such sectors as housing, retail and finance -- some of which saw a bump up in value on the news -- shouldn't expect a big boost from Bush's plans over the longer term.

Many analysts have warned that a spreading credit crisis could drag the U.S. economy into recession, while Bush administration officials have repeatedly said fundamentals remained healthy and global growth was robust.

Bush's proposals include plans to give the Federal Housing Administration more flexibility by allowing lower down-payment requirements and enabling homeowners to refinance into FHA-insured mortgages. He also called for changes in the tax code to eliminate penalties for refinancing mortgages, and better disclosure from mortgage brokers on rates and fees.

Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business, said the plans were not enough.

"There's the immediate problem of the people who are stuck, and then there's the longer-term problem of fixing this market so it doesn't happen again," said Morici, a former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. "You always have to start with that second thing and then say, 'How do we bridge these people into that new market?'

"In terms of the immediate problem, all you really can do is put some Band-Aids on until you come up with some mortgage products that these people can afford," he added.

NO BAILOUT

Investors, while sensitive to helping those borrowers in trouble, don't want the government to simply bail them out.

"Speculators should suffer," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer with Solaris Asset Management in New York. "Investing is fraught with risk, and if you bail them out, it just encourages more speculators."

Bush agreed: "It's not the government's job to bail out speculators or those who made the decision to buy a home they knew they could never afford."

Earlier on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke assured the markets the Fed will act as necessary to limit the damage to the U.S. economy, but there will be no bailouts.

But Ghriskey called Bush's plans a Band-Aid for the financial markets -- a sentiment echoed by others.

"If you're a politician looking for re-election, you want your voters to be less unnerved about what's going on in the mortgage market," said Ken Crawford, a portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management in Clayton, Missouri.

The key is patience.

halifax - 31 Aug 2007 20:23 - 1162 of 1564

So Maddoctor should we short the DJIA?

maddoctor - 31 Aug 2007 20:26 - 1163 of 1564

400 was the big number but cos of the holiday and what somebody on the traders thread said "the US likes to go on holiday with a fuzzy feeling" its the time to wait -until tuesday and i see no sell signal tonight.

first sell signal today at 425 but too late for me

cynic - 31 Aug 2007 21:04 - 1164 of 1564

halifax .... no! ..... Dow finished very strongly near its peak = +170 ..... US is now shut for long w/e which will give time for things to settle down a bit, but implication is positive at least for the short term

maddoctor - 31 Aug 2007 21:06 - 1165 of 1564

cynic , wot you looking at - DOW +119

cynic - 01 Sep 2007 10:08 - 1166 of 1564

i was using IG live prices ...... i may have misread, or the indicator may have implied a lower Dow opening at some point ....... anyway, the end figure looks to be 13342 with indicator showing +22 after the close.

HARRYCAT - 03 Sep 2007 12:43 - 1167 of 1564

From Traders Report today. Not often they specify a particular day for fireworks:

With some big economic data released next week and the Bank of England's first meeting since CPI inflation data in the UK dipped below its target of 2% we can expect some serious volatility on Thursday.

maddoctor - 04 Sep 2007 19:50 - 1168 of 1564

dow above the 50ma so just a correction - tho why beats me

cynic - 04 Sep 2007 20:06 - 1169 of 1564

am busy doing other things, so not watching 100%, so have put a tight stop at 13425, 13441 being a questionable key number

halifax - 05 Sep 2007 16:37 - 1170 of 1564

Is the market putting a little pressure on the BOE in front of tomorrows interest decision?

cynic - 05 Sep 2007 17:51 - 1171 of 1564

just nerves and a bit of profit taking after a decent recovery over the last few days ..... have gone long Dow at 13296, but pretty gently

Strawbs - 05 Sep 2007 19:26 - 1172 of 1564

I posted on another thread about 5 weeks ago a possible "head and shoulders" pattern on the FTSE. Although the right shoulder didn't form definitively the FTSE is still struggling to break through the "theoretical" kneck line. In so much as all this technical stuff is a load of old hooey anyway, I think a retest of the 5850 levels is possible. Where it goes from there (if it goes there) is anybodys guess. If you look back at the recent corrections they've all formed a "W" shape (or double bottom). The current "correction" is in the first "V" of a W.

In my opinion....and observation.

Strawbs.

hlyeo98 - 05 Sep 2007 19:27 - 1173 of 1564

Home sales in USA is worse than expected...brace for another downturn tomorrow.
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