bosley
- 20 Feb 2004 09:34
Snip
- 14 Oct 2005 17:23
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It is possible oblomov. I believe that next week will give it a push either way
Trouble is that this stock hasn`t been allowed to settle into a natural pattern. The hype really has not been helpful in allowing this company to grow on solid foundations. ie rises in between good consolidations
I believe that the outside range will be 12 to 18 with several ups and downs between those two limits. This is called consolidation and must happen to build a good base and the longer it takes the better. If the consolidation gets narrower and narrower in range then it becomes like a coiled spring and there could be an explosive action out of the conso range
IMO removing the hype from this thread can only be good for the long term investors
hewittalan6
- 14 Oct 2005 17:25
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Now I'm really confused. The 50 and 200 day MA on Snips charts are different to those on the charts at the top of the thread. Whats that all about then???
Alan
Snip
- 14 Oct 2005 17:29
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my objective thread uses EMA ie exponential moving averages as they are more relevant. They are weighted towards recent price activity
My chart in a recent post here uses 20 and 50 day simple MA as this is the standard dead cross
Oilywag
- 14 Oct 2005 17:31
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Alan
The chart posted by Snip are with 20 and 50 moving averages (MA) as opposed to 50 and 200 day moving averages.
Hope that explains it. Anyone got any other comments?
The oily one
andysmith
- 14 Oct 2005 18:04
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Will be reading the T&G report this weekend.
Tonyrelaxes
- 14 Oct 2005 21:00
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Pity QC is no longer here. We are all the poorer - especially as to what he has just turned up.
He has found UBS-Warburg's target price from SEO. It would even make Paul (I miss him already) go ballistic....!
Biscuit
- 14 Oct 2005 21:18
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I wasn't even aware that Warburg covered SEO, I think that maybe a mistake as it gives a current target of 2.80.
niceonecyril
- 14 Oct 2005 21:18
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UBS-WARBERG 3/10/05
16.75P BUY
old price 280p
new price 330p upgrade
cyril
andysmith
- 14 Oct 2005 21:18
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Driver, I will be back on board at the right moment and having read the T&G report I think it offers a good summary of the future "potential". It considers short-term downside IF the Greenseal targets are not met with Asda BUT at the same time confirms what I have heard in that other retailers are waiting for next July.
I like the comment that SEO is now trading on fundamentals rather than hype/potential which was my view and what I said when the sp was bouncing between RNS's at 18-21p and why I jumped to lock-in & preserve profits and still have time to get back in (with whats left!!!).
They are suggesting PE of 14-15 for SEO's sector which means that YE Oct 2006 is already factored at EPS 0.47p and so is 2007 however no Starpol factored in yet which offers upside IF and WHEN deals are announced.
So their mid-term target price is 21p assuming 200 Asda in 12 months plus more after and other retailers joing the fray but no Starpol yet, forget Frogpack as major earner and also Cradlewrap.
Bull possibilities, Asda do 200+ machines, other UK retailers join in and IF Walmart change their packaging materials and concepts and use Greenseal with Starpol.
Bear possibilities, 200 not achieved, Walmart delay or do not adopt the changes plus the BPRG cc still in the background.
For me long-term the story is re-iterated and no need to change my view, pleased to see that some of the new products are not going to be major money-spinners used in hype but good additions to the portfolio and confirming SEO as company developing new innovative ideas to the packaging markets. e.g. Would the RNS on Frogpack have lifted the sp like it did two weeks ago is sales of only 100,000 at 3p were known, however Frogpack is another good alert to SEO's development in the market.
For me short-term, depends what happens next week and whether speculation that something will be announced has resulted in 15.5p or renewed confidence can hold it there regardless? Could be paying 18p if positive next week, 13p if the market expects and doesn't receive so agree with snip's analysis of current trading range, either way a good long-term BUY its just picking the right price for the individual.
I am away early next week so I will wait until towards the end of the week before making a decision, it has to go above 20p before my decision was a tad early and I can't see that unless a major signed deal is announced which IMO needs the full FDA approval to be announced. Don't forget Walmart also have to change their packaging concepts to adopt Starpol and Greenseal so for now it will be confined literally to the low hanging fruit packaging cartons.
Summary, good to have more positive thoughts from another "non-house" broker and a more sensible report that considers that there are still risks attached to being an investor in SEO but that there is plenty of POTENTIAL upside.
andysmith
- 14 Oct 2005 21:27
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Apologies for the long-post, someone had to make up for PM being banned.
Seriously, thought the T&G report good, providing with an excellent summary of potential risk vs reward without over-stating the fact that could be 8p if Greenseal doesn't deliver but could be much higher if it all comes off.
Hmmm, what will happen next week, what price will I buy at????
shamona
- 14 Oct 2005 21:32
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I thought the T&G report was incomplete without a warning on possible damages to come, head in the sand is not a professional approach.
andysmith
- 14 Oct 2005 21:35
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Sham, fair point, it would have been good to have a potential assessment on damages although I know you have an interest from a BPRG angle.
Tonyrelaxes
- 14 Oct 2005 21:50
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Ian Balchin, at the EGM, described the Court Case as "an irritation". I take this, if he was being straight and honest, that he does not see it as having any big consequence for the company.
bosley
- 14 Oct 2005 22:27
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evening all. lots of posts. as someone said, pm1 will resurface somewhere else and then all his minnions can go there. shame about qc going just as he was getting interesting, though.
good to finally see objective, constructive discussion again. just started reading the t+g report. very thorough, isn't it.
antofelli
- 14 Oct 2005 22:44
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I`d like to make a serius request to MoneyAM to reinstate PM1 on this board as soon as possible. Thanks
Fred1new
- 14 Oct 2005 23:13
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Boss, do you mean the argument for SEO is now being presented in the way which you agree with?
I just can't make out the colours of the different teams.
bosley
- 14 Oct 2005 23:32
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a very good read, doesn't really tell us anything new apart from a few bits and pieces. i can't really add anything to andy's assessment, good post.
bosley
- 14 Oct 2005 23:45
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fred, what teams would they be?