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CFA CAPITAL - EXCITING YEAR AHEAD (DGT)     

SueHelen - 31 Mar 2004 10:42

Final Results Due In March 2005.

http://www.cityfin.co.uk
Trades over 450,000 shares are delayed in reporting by 1 Hour.

One of City Financial Associates (CFP's) main operating goals is to bring fledgling companies to the market. With the depressed stock market over the last few years many potential clients have deffered entry to the LSE. Markets have now turned and the reality of a sucession of new floatations is growing. CFP are well positioned to enjoy the rewards that will be benefited to them in this growing market place.

Why the EXCITEMENT - will here are the reasons why I think we're on a winner.

1) My motto is when it's comes to investing there are three things. Management, management and management. With any good investment - the management should be the driving force in a company. Can they cut the mustard, are they dynamic, do they have good contacts? I think so if you read the following profile.

Stephen Barclay, Executive Chairman

Stephen Barclay, aged 61, qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1964 with Robson Rhodes before obtaining an MBA degree from Wharton Business School in 1967. In 1989, after a career during which he reorganised various companies, he established City Financial Associates Plc (formerly Clifton Financial Associates Plc) to provide corporate finance advice to small to medium sized private and public companies. In August 1998, City Financial Associates Plc was purchased by Talisman House Plc (now Seymour Pierce Group Plc) where he became group executive chairman. In December 1998, Talisman House Plc purchased an institutional stockbroker, Seymour Pierce Limited, where he became executive chairman. He resigned as a director of Seymour Pierce Group Plc and various other group companies at the end of March 2001 to found CFA Capital Group Plc. He is a director of a number of public companies including MICE Group Plc and Talisman First Venture Capital Trust Plc and is a governor of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

John Shaw, Executive Director

John Shaw, aged 54, qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1975 with Touche Ross & Co in London. Subsequently he spent two years seconded to the Quotations Department of the London Stock Exchange returning to Touche Ross & Co to join the Corporate Finance Group until 1982. After a period as a sole practitioner, he joined Chase Investment Bank Limited in 1985, was appointed a director and founded the Equity Investment Group, formed to invest in unquoted companies. In 1990 he joined Henry Ansbacher & Co Limited as an Assistant Director of Corporate Finance. He started working with City Financial Associates Plc in early 1995 and was appointed a director in December 1996. He was appointed a director of Seymour Pierce Limited in December 1998 where he was initially Head of Corporate Finance and latterly Head of Private Equity. He resigned from Seymour Pierce Limited and various other group companies at the end of March 2001 to found CFA Capital Group Plc.

2) They have turned a 2 million loss into nearly a profit if you ignore costs for discontinuing operations - that some turn around.

3) With only small market capital of 3.83M it's feasible to suggest they could make a good profit this year as they have already got off to a good start signing more clients.

A profit of half million would give a pe ratio of 7.66

1 million a pe ratio of 3.83

1.5 million a pe ratio of 2.55

2 million a pe ratio of 1.91.

So it would only take a small profit to make this company super undervalued. Consider the possibility they could achieve a 2 million profit this year, which is the least, I expect, we could be looking at a share price of 7p. YES THAT'S 7P (An average p/e for the sector is 16.) Even with a profit of only 1 million that's still an upside of 3.5p.

3) Consider the fact that some of their clients pay their fee by way of giving large share holdings to CFP. All it would take is two or three creamy companies to give them valuable portfolio holding which they could cash in at a substantial return.

4) The IPO is sector has already increased three fold this year. More and more companies are coming into AIM and from abroad then ever before. Rules have changed where foreign companies can use a fast track scheme to get on board more quickly then ever before. I'm sure CFA Associates are well positioned to benefit with this increase in volume.

5) We could see a re-rating this year in this sector, which would be the cherry on the top.

I rest my case, to me this is a no brainer unless you want to wait for the next results for proof they have achieved profitability. If that's your cautious approach, fine but by then, you can then expect a much higher share price then now.

Major Shareholdings:
Stephen John Barclay 64,600,000 11.66%
Pershing Keen Noms Ltd 49,610,000 8.95%
John Richard Shaw 29,400,000 5.31%

RNS Number:9414C
CFA Capital Group PLC
15 September 2004

CFA Capital Group plc
Interim results for the 6 months ended 30 June 2004
CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

Highlights

* Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM companies - broker to 15 AIM companies

* Currently handling a number of AIM flotations and other major transactions

* Strong second-half order book - solid outlook for year

* Turnover for the period up 95% to #510,000 (6 months to 30 June 2003:
#262,000 from continuing operations)

* Losses before taxation of #58,000, (loss 6 months to 30 June 2003:
#208,000 from continuing operations)

* Currently recruiting to further strengthen team

Introduction
I am pleased to announce that CFA is now retained as Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM
companies and broker to 16 AIM companies. The company is currently working on a
number of AIM flotations and other major transactions, and as such has built a
strong order book for the second half of 2004. The fees generated by this
activity, taken together with our underlying retainer income and largely-fixed
overhead base, leaves us well-positioned for a satisfactory outcome to the year
as a whole.

Sharply reduced losses for the first half were achieved even though we had to
incur costs on two flotations that were not completed until July 2004 which
generated revenues of #225,000. These revenues were not recognised in the
results to 30 June 2004.

Turnover for the period nonetheless increased 95% to #510,000 (6 months to 30
June 2003: #262,000 from continuing operations), with losses before taxation of
#58,000 showing a marked improvement from #208,000 (6 months to June 2003 -
continuing operations).

Following the sale of CFA Securities Limited in 2003, CFA is now firmly focused
on servicing the needs of clients who are essentially AIM listed companies run
by entrepreneurs. We now have a team of eight, comprising executives and support
staff, providing corporate finance and broking advice. We are in the process of
recruiting further executives to join the team. This recruitment will ensure
client service levels are maintained as we meet the increasing demand for our
services.

In accordance with my statement on the results for the year to 31 December 2003,
CFA started the beginning of 2004 with a good pipeline of work and with a degree
of optimism that market conditions would enable these deals to be completed and
this was the case in the first quarter to 31 March 2004. However, in the second
quarter, in a number of cases transactions that we anticipated completing in the
first half have either been completed since the end of June or have been
deferred. This adversely affected our earlier expectations of financial
performance in the first half of the year.

Financial review
Despite these factors CFA achieved a creditable result in the first half.
Turnover was #510,000 (6 months ended 30 June 2003: #262,000 from continuing
operations), overheads (including plc running costs) were #609,000 (2003:
#458,000 on continuing operations) and the loss before taxation for the period
was #58,000 (6 months ended 2003: loss #208,000).

These results need to be seen in the context of our having completed the
flotation of Smallbone plc (admitted to AIM on 26 July) and Ragusa Capital plc
(admitted to AIM on 15 July). No income is taken into account in the period in
respect of these transactions, although a significant amount of the costs
relating to these flotations were incurred in the period.

CFA is now retained as Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM companies and retained Broker
to AIM 15 companies. Annualised recurring income currently totals over #340,000
representing approximately 30 per cent of total budgeted group costs, and we
anticipate that our level of retainers and this source of revenue will show a
significant increase by the year end. Our increasing base of retained clients
not only provides a source of recurring revenue but is also a prime source of
transactions.

On 27 May 2004 we announced a placing of 65 million new ordinary shares at a
price of 0.7p per share, to raise #441,340 net of expenses. As at 31 December
2003 the net assets of CFA Capital Group plc were #534,000. The impact of the
placing and the small loss in the period, has been to increase the Group's net
worth as at 30 June 2004 to #914,000, creating a sound financial base.

Current trading
We currently have a strong order book both in respect of a number of AIM
flotations and other transactions partially arising through our existing client
base. On the basis that we complete a good number of these transactions, we
anticipate a satisfactory outcome for the year as a whole.

Summary
On 31 July 2004, John Shaw stood down as a Director of CFA Capital Group plc and
all Group companies. John has worked with me for over 10 years and was a founder
shareholder of the Company in 2001. The Board thanks John for his significant
contribution and wishes him well for the future.

The Board also extends its thanks to the entire team for their efforts so far
this year.

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overgrowth - 08 Oct 2004 09:07 - 1160 of 1892

Cheers bosley - I'll pick up a copy of Shares today, sounds like a very interesting article.

Do you happen to know if there's any intelligent software around which identifies charts of two co's where the shares are closely related ?

corehard - 08 Oct 2004 09:11 - 1161 of 1892

Hi all !
Excuse my ignorance... but why a 10% drop when "buy" outweighs "sell" by nearly 40%. Hope you sharp-shooters can shed light on this.
Thks

bosley - 08 Oct 2004 09:56 - 1162 of 1892

ours is not to reason why, corehard, ours is but to do and lose all our money......
so many things dont make sense . i will give you the answer everyone gives when things make no sense, marketmakers. blame them for everything

corehard - 08 Oct 2004 10:14 - 1163 of 1892

corehard - 08 Oct 2004 10:16 - 1164 of 1892

Bosley - Many thanks !
In for the long haul anyway...

deadfred - 08 Oct 2004 14:08 - 1165 of 1892

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
more and more mentions in share and financial papers what does that say

overgrowth - 08 Oct 2004 14:29 - 1166 of 1892

deadfred - it says to me that the MMs want your shares, they managed to pick up a million from a windy punter today.

However - trades so far today are:

BUYS: 1,465,946
SELLS: 1,141,781

Bid/offer remains the same - they're just soaking the sells up and at the same time getting a good percentage from the bargain hunters (who continue to buy as they have done over the past few weeks) - in conjuction with raised PR very recently, this suggests that something is cooking.

Looks like plenty of tasty newsflow on the horizon.



overgrowth - 08 Oct 2004 14:58 - 1167 of 1892

By all accounts, if you want to get the newsflow before the crowd check out:

http://www.growthcompany.co.uk

ptholden - 08 Oct 2004 15:39 - 1168 of 1892

Afternoon all,

Interesting stuff at the moment, something brewing possibly? Couldn't resist, just topped up again today.

Regards

PTH

bosley - 08 Oct 2004 16:30 - 1169 of 1892

what newsflow? what did i miss ?

overgrowth - 08 Oct 2004 18:03 - 1170 of 1892

bosley - scroll back a bit and take a look at slmchow's post 1140, and that's just the stuff that we know about so far!

We've still got the 250K (as far as I recall) carried forward into the second half (for Smallbone and Ragusa deals).

If there are 3 "guaranteed" floats (and more than likely 3 placements also) which we know of coming very soon and the likelihood that CFP will complete even more deals in the ultra-busy time towards the end of the year, this is all looking very healthy indeed for profits for the year end at 31st December.

Remember that CFP are taking on more staff, which will mean even more deals and a quicker turnaround rate (where possible) in the future.

I suspect that we're going to see CFP over 1p in the very near future and after then it should continue to be "onwards and upwards".

Now the markets are starting to regain their health generally, it looks like there has never been a better time to invest in companies like CFP.

ptholden - 08 Oct 2004 19:09 - 1171 of 1892

Slightly of thread, but I am quite interested in the relationship between CYC and CFP. As afr as I am aware CYC have only floated two companies thus far, yet their SP has out stripped CFAs by a considerable margin. Personally I feel that CYC is vastly overbought and has a similiarly vastly inflated SP, IMHO. Clearly, CYC SP is underpinned by the 'China' connection, but for a tiny company, with a tiny turnover thus far, for how much longer will there be this significant divergance. I, for one, would happily buy into CYC if I could see a reason to do so, but when compared with CFP's growing customer base, steady expansion, increasing revenues and a more than likely very busy second half, I fail to see the attraction. Perhaps I am missing something, but it is slightly frustrating when comparing the two companies. IMHO the respective shares values will converge, CYC down, CFP up, when investors realise what a solid little company CFP really is.

Opinions anyone?

Regards

PTH

deadfred - 08 Oct 2004 22:09 - 1172 of 1892

pt i know were your coming from with your post and it makes a lot of sense
but for mr id make a bid for cyc if i was sb
converge the know how of both companies and then i think ppl would notice more how cfp is being run and how well it is doing

to get onto another point pr i do belive (but i maybe wrong)sb said he would only say what was happening when the deal was set in stone now if news is seeping out about new deals maybe there already set if you see my point

ptholden - 08 Oct 2004 22:43 - 1173 of 1892

Hi Fred

Good point, about the deal(s) Fred. Having been away for a week and not read the BBs, I get the distinct impression that something is about to break. Sometimes when you don't keep up, a better overall impression is felt when catching up in one day, if you see what I mean.

Looking at the spread activity today, I also get the feeling that the MM is still trying to get some stock. That buy for 350,000 at 0.80p should really have pushed the Bid up, but I think they want to shake out some more sellers if they can.

Doesn't really matter as far as I am concerned, I'm in for the long term and am happy all is OK.

PTH

bosley - 09 Oct 2004 10:56 - 1174 of 1892

mms have been trying to collect shares for a while now . they dont half f**k around with the spread.feels like i bought in ages ago. wish i had sold when i had big profit and jumped back in now. i agree with ptholdens point on cyc and cfp . cfp looks to be the steady eddie company and thats more like the kind of company i prefer. but it would alo be nice if the cfp price followed the cyc price. i also like the fact that cfp dont announce until the deal is done. leaky companies are too volatile.and it looks like good management too .anyways , see you all on monday.

overgrowth - 09 Oct 2004 15:45 - 1175 of 1892

I picked up an interesting book yesterday having previously seen good reports (in a similar vein to "Reminisces of a Stock Operator").

It's an oldish book (still in print) but the advice transcends the passage of time - it's called "The Zurich Axioms". Well worth a read, the book tells you how to avoid the classic psychological mistakes made in the markets and essentially gives you the formula for becoming a successful speculator.

Much of the advice goes against the grain of conventional financial "wisdom". For example one bit of advice is to put all your eggs into one basket - if you diversify you have less risk but get little gain.

Based on this, CFP appears to be a perfect longer term speculator's share for anyone investing a sizeable chunk - after all at the current prices you can get a million shares for between 6-7k (if you catch them at the right time). The great thing is that although you're on the face of it more exposed to risk by having more outlay, the inherent risk in CFP is actually very small, because management is solid, steady and competent and the business sector is at the beginning of the next "up" cycle. Remember that CFP's price is only low because they are in their first growth phase.

In 1-2 years we could easily see CFP at around the 5p mark - is it better to cut the risks, invest your small-cap standard 500 and take around 2,000 if you decide to sell at 5p or do you act like a speculator, invest 7,000 and take 43,000 ?

I know which choice I've made and I would guess many of you guys here have come up with a similar conclusion (still worth reading the book though because there are many more similar tips to point you in the right direction).

ptholden - 09 Oct 2004 19:05 - 1176 of 1892

OG,

Entirely agree, not quite up to the 1 million yet, but as time goes by more funds become available and more shares go into the CFP bag. Personally, I am quite happy to see the SP bouncing around at this low level, I don't think they will be here for much longer.

PTH

EWRobson - 09 Oct 2004 21:28 - 1177 of 1892

Just taking a look at CFA at the beholding of my sparring partner ptholden who has nominated CFP to a portfolio on the ASC bb. The initial CFP entry above looks a tad optimistic. However, on the basis of say 6 floats (2 in July plus three referred to above plus 1) could give 1m t/o in second half and a profit of something like 200K, a p/e of about 20. Projections for next year might then reduce the p/e to 10 and there would be a justification for, say, a 50% rise in price. What is the reaction of you guys who know the company far better than me? It seems to be in a small niche market, which I like. I like the management qualification and low key style. Of course, they don't give analyst projections on their own shares. Initial reaction is that there is a good case for investing but not for going over-board. Comments?

Eric

overgrowth - 09 Oct 2004 23:37 - 1178 of 1892

Hi Eric,

As an outsider looking in, I would come to the same conclusions as yourself, however I believe that there is much more hidden potential with CFP than is immediately obvious.

As CFP gain more and more companies under their belt, they have a consistently increasing guaranteed annual source of income from NOMAD fees (it is possible at some point in the future that these fees alone will cover all expenses - leaving any other deals, consultancy, placements etc. to go straight to the bottom line).

I note that your projections rely on fees from floatations, however, annual fees and floatation fees are not where CFP make most of their money. It is in the percentage cut they take for operating as broker for placements (i.e. selling their clients to institutions). Placements are quite common for AIM companies, for starters at the same time as floatation (for virtually all companies) and several times afterwards as the companies need the financial backing to grow.

CFP at the moment don't look exciting enough for anyone to go over-board, however I believe that longer term we are looking at a classic growth story. Here are some points to consider:

1) Management are highly competant and are well respected in the square mile.
2) AIM market is bouyant and is expected to be like this for some time.
3) Revenue from NOMAD fees is increasing with each new flotation.
4) Placements are very lucrative (fees at 4-10% of amount raised).
5) Plenty of deals in the pipeline.
6) The company are expanding - more staff needed to handle the pipeline work.
7) The media are just starting to cotton on to the potential here.

I don't expect CFP to "explode" in bio./tech. stock style, though I believe that all the pointers are there to a sustained increase in share price as CFP take on more and more business and hence there is a definite investment case (plus they're an AIM stock themselves, so if you're plagued by CGT - you can save yourself up to 30% of your selling price if you hold for 2 years+).

All the best

OG

EWRobson - 10 Oct 2004 00:04 - 1179 of 1892

OG

I appreciate your comprehensive and impressive response. There was no mention of placements in the interim results but clearly that will be a key part of their services to the 15 clients for whom they act as broker. Interesting that, as analysts, they don't seem to promote their own business that well - probably because they don't need to: their overhead level is low and they are probably now cash-flow positive. When would you expect positive news-flow to impact the price?

Many thanks, Eric
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