ptholden
- 01 Jul 2007 16:59
- 1164 of 3050
Well, I don't think you were calling this down from 2 odd Cynic, which if the comments made on this board re GF's stance are correct, he was, in which case he would have lost a considerable bundle. As far as Kitso is concenred he has his holding and can hardly be accused of sitting on the fence! SP is slowly nudging upwards and whilst the impending convertible bond issue will have an impact, the real future of the company will be decided upon why SOLA want to double the shares in issue. Interesting times.
pth
cynic
- 01 Jul 2007 17:58
- 1165 of 3050
PT .... confess did not realise GF had been shouting short since 2 ..... however, i don't think anyone in his right senses would be a buyer for the time being
Alleyne
- 01 Jul 2007 18:27
- 1166 of 3050
cynic , you said " .... you cannot compare TAN with SOLA ..... the former has plenty of track record + new orders etc etc whereas SOLA is very much the new boy on the block with all to prove ..... just as importantly, the stock (share price!) is still very much under the control of the Chinese, whom I am sorry to say are less than trustworthy ....... "
Ugly racist little gobshite aren't you.
cynic
- 01 Jul 2007 19:13
- 1167 of 3050
first hand business experience old son ...... if you want to dress it up prettily, you could say the chinese have a totally different set of business ethics from westerners .... i am happy to stand by what i wrote .... there was actually a very interesting tv documentary about people doing business in China just a few weeks ago ..... i thought it put it all very fairly
by the way, racist = no; unlike the pc-pretenders, i just say it like it is which is not quite the same; ugly = eye of the beholder and have yet to frighten the donkey next door; little = well no actually; probably slightly taller than average and finally the correct slang term is, i believe, a kite, though that is a rather dated expression.
you may also care to glance through the thread "Immigration - bane or bonus for a nation?"
goldfinger
- 01 Jul 2007 23:16
- 1168 of 3050
Never opened a short on sola just to put the record straight and yes ive been having a go at the advfn puffers here who have puffed it up to a P/E of 50 plus (and more) since around the 2 plus mark.
Lets not forget this one only made a profit of 11 million last year (only a few months back) but has a market cap of 560 million and assets of just 48 million (a big proportion Intangibles).
One could justify a market price of 2 for this stock and once the 588p mark is hit, I expect it to collapse.
kitosdad
- 02 Jul 2007 07:34
- 1169 of 3050
200% gain is good in anyones books GF. Anyway,let's see shall we.?
cynic
- 02 Jul 2007 07:34
- 1170 of 3050
GF ..... sorry to attack you, but if you feel that strongly then why don't you put your money where your mouth is? ...... after all, if you really think the shares are only worth 2, then there has been or even is huge potential for massive profit ...... for myself, i shall certainly be considering shorting very seriously, though not just yet, but rest asured that, as (nearly) always, i shall post when i do
goldfinger
- 02 Jul 2007 09:46
- 1171 of 3050
No probs Cynic, attack me as much as you like (that goes for anyone)theres always a two way view. (pity the sola puffers dont realise this)
Ive found through experience that there are certain points were a stock becomes very vunerable on the short side (on the longside aswell)and as a long term investor on the short side , Im looking for opportunities not for a quick return but for a nice smooth transition from being well overated to fair market value.
I was initially going to short this one when the lock ins for the institutions expired in autumn last year but held back because newsflow for this one is somewhat constrained/masked with it being domiciled offshore and PI liquidity not being stretched enough.
It did happen that the stock was hit by funds selling off but it was returns more for a short term trader rather than the long term.
At 588p we not only get 10% dilution likely to kick in, but we also have..
- AGM proposal to double the shares authorised and likelyhood of further dilution
- Management lock ins expire, 59% of the stock is held by 2 directors
- Tax begins to kick in at 12% and then more
- Margins forecast to drop substantiatialy by broker Atrium
- Holders and Shorters aware of the dilution effect kicking in at 588p
- Chinese market and stocks showing signs of cooling off, in fact the bubble could burst
- Competitors ramping up production
All these point coming together more or less at once, points to the stock at 588p being a shorters target and I then believe a crash could be on the cards and yes 2 could be a justifiable target price.
cynic
- 02 Jul 2007 10:18
- 1172 of 3050
so GF, will you be shorting (with money!) when sp reaches or nears 588 and/or sp shows signs of fairly significant weakness?
goldfinger
- 02 Jul 2007 10:29
- 1173 of 3050
Certainly, no ifs and buts at 588p.
I might be totaly wrong and get it wrong and lose a lot of money, but I think the cards are on my side at the moment.
I remember a similar situation with NTX (another duffer) where I shorted it at 132p it also was way overvalued and a advfn puffers favourite, the abuse I received, but I stuck to my guns.
It eventually was 'found out' and dropped to 39p.
made a nice 6 figure sum on that.
The only short that as gone the wrong way for me is UK Coal were I lost a wedge ouch, I should have kept to the small caps.
kitosdad
- 02 Jul 2007 15:09
- 1174 of 3050
A small cap probably wouldn't fit you GF. LOL.
goldfinger
- 02 Jul 2007 23:21
- 1175 of 3050
Alleyne, it looks like Cynic was right over his interpretation of the Chinese doing business.
Just received a free copy of Money Week today in the post , I suppose a lot of PIs will have recd the same and on page 7 Time Bomb Investment 3, China... at least a stand back for now
the author goes on to say...
Everyone was recommending getting into China. But after years of experience , weve learned that when everyone is thinking the same (take note sola fans*) thing, no one is thinking at all.
Besides, everyone knows that you can't trust the information coming out of China. At best, it is biased. At worst, it is pure lies. ENDS
* my comment.
cynic
- 03 Jul 2007 07:00
- 1176 of 3050
and i promise i have never seen that article and most certainly did not write it!
kitosdad
- 03 Jul 2007 07:57
- 1177 of 3050
Best we all sell immediately then, and you then can jump on the shorters bandwagon GF.
Wouldn't you just love that.!!!!
kitosdad
- 03 Jul 2007 09:08
- 1178 of 3050
C'mon GF, your chance to short is here ... for me, another cheap buying opportunity.
goldfinger
- 03 Jul 2007 10:06
- 1179 of 3050
Cynic, Money Week is a well respected weekly rag aswell.
Personaly I tend to overlook and be ignorant of the macro issues these days and just concentrate on the micro side.
goldfinger
- 03 Jul 2007 10:15
- 1180 of 3050
From Winnie over at SC.....
Not only were the fundamentals in no way good enough to justify the sp but today's statement looks like (albeitr a very small) profits warning. But when you are on a loony tune rating you discount only good news. There is no room for error. SOLA has just admitted it is not perfect. Anyone who buys this one is - IMHO - insane.
Tom Winnifrith
kitosdad
- 03 Jul 2007 11:27
- 1181 of 3050
Yet buyers still outnumber sellers 3:1.
moneyplus
- 03 Jul 2007 12:31
- 1182 of 3050
I think it was a typical market over reaction! the sp is bouncing back because when you study the rns we can expect better margins on the larger wafers and the tolling increase is also good news as the buyer supplies their own polysilicon with sola charging a fee to produce the wafers--all extra on the bottom line. I've no spare to add to my holding but I would if I could!!
Greyhound
- 03 Jul 2007 15:56
- 1183 of 3050
Just closed my last tranche here. Rocky times ahead (at least for the summer months)?