Thought it about time we had a separate thread for currency plays.

Charts Currently Removed - New Ones To Follow Soon

Good Reading If You Like FX
http://www.mizuhobank.com/fin_info/exchange.html

GBP/JPY 184.443 extended short play

TOKYO, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Japanese exports grew in October at the fastest pace in eight months, an encouraging sign that global demand could help the country recover from recession and support the central bank's optimistic economic outlook. The 9.6 percent annual rise in exports in October was more than double the 4.5 percent gain expected by economists in a Reuters poll and faster than September's 6.9 percent year-on-year increase. In another sign that the world's third-largest economy is regaining its footing, a private flash survey conducted by Markit/JMMA showed that factory output grew in November at the fastest pace since March. ID:nS7N0OL00R Policymakers were stunned by data this week that showed the Japanese economy fell into recession as a sales tax hike weighed on consumer spending and business investment. But growing exports and output could help lift some of the gloom surrounding the economy. "The trade data shows that exports will contribute to growth in the fourth quarter and help recoup some of the weakness we've seen in Japan's domestic demand," said Shuji Tonouchi, senior fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Accelerating exports could also be a positive for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has said he will call an election amid growing doubts about his economic policies. Japan's exports jumped in October due to higher shipments of cars, ships and electronics, finance ministry data showed. Exports to Asia, which account for more than half of Japanese shipments, picked up to 10.5 percent in October from a year earlier. Shipments to China slowed to a 7.2 percent annual rise in October from an 8.7 percent pace the previous month as the world's second-largest economy slows. SOLID SALES TO U.S. Exports to the United States rose 8.9 percent in October from a year ago, double September's rate. Total imports rose 2.7 percent year-on-year to October, lower than the median poll estimate for 3.4 percent. October produced a trade deficit of 710.0 billion yen ($6.01 billion), less than the median forecast for a 1.05 trillion yen deficit from a Reuters' poll of analysts. Japan's competitors have become increasingly worried that Tokyo's reflationary economic policies were weakening the yen, allowing Japanese firms to undercut their own exporters. Hitherto, there had not been much sign that Japan's exporters were benefitting much from the weaker yen as most have moved much of their production overseas. The yen JPY= has fallen around 30 percent versus the dollar since Abe took office in late 2012. On Thursday, the yen struck a seven-year low, trading just under 119 per dollar and currency traders think it could go to 120 as early as next week. Despite strong gains made by exports in October, some economists doubt whether the weak yen will sustain the trend. "It is premature to declare that exports will remain in an upward trend," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute. "We need more time to see if companies will respond to the yen's decline by slowing their transfer of manufacturing capacity overseas."

Stocks down as US$ hits 7-year high v Yen

Sterling prospects

Dollar bulls on the march

Yen positions closed at loss

$ v Y touches 7-year high

EUR/GBP 0.79283 gone short

EUR/GBP position closed @ 0.78840 for +443

Nice one Shortie

Good show, Shortie. I think the Euro may go down a bit more.

Euro prospects

Quite possibly but I needed to take some profit for Christmas shopping the way the Mrs goes through it!

Boring....

Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic party has cruised to another election victory in Japan, strengthening the prime minister’s firm grip despite a record-low turnout. The LDP won 291 of 475 seats in the lower house of parliament, the more powerful of the two chambers, roughly matching its performance two years ago, when Mr Abe swept to power on a promise of overcoming more than a decade of deflation. The result is a boost for Abenomics, the prime minister’s three-pronged growth platform, as it buys time to pursue some of the tougher structural reforms to revitalise industry and agriculture. It could also extend Mr Abe’s own reign until 2018, meaning that the 60-year-old conservative could become one of Japan’s longest-serving prime ministers of the post-war period – FT.

The US Senate ended the threat of a government shutdown by passing a $1.1 tln spending package at the weekend, but only after days of acrimony and revolts that are likely to foreshadow more of the same next year. The sprawling package, which was backed by both party establishments, will fund most of the federal government through to September 2015 and now goes to the White House to be signed by President Barack Obama, who supports it. But populist rebellions against it on both sides of the aisle put paid to hopes that Congress was edging towards an era of more constructive bipartisan co-operation before Republicans take control of both chambers next year – FT.

David Cameron is eyeing a deal on Britain’s EU relationship just months before his mooted referendum, as diplomats work towards a “sweet spot” for an agreement in the summer of 2017, the tantalising gap between French and German elections. Mr Cameron believes that a new French president, possibly a returning Nicolas Sarkozy, will be best-placed to help Britain, working alongside Angela Merkel, whose mandate expires at German elections in the autumn of 2017 – FT.

Fitch Ratings cut France's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings to AA from AA+, resolving the Rating Watch Negative; the outlooks on France's Long-term ratings were Stable. Issue ratings on France's unsecured foreign and local currency bonds were also downgraded to AA from AA+; but Fitch affirmed the short-term foreign currency IDR at F1+ and Country Ceiling at AAA. It acted after not seeing "material improvement" in the "trajectory of public debt dynamics following the European Commission's opinion on France's 2015 budget". The French government announced €3.6 bln in additional budget saving measures (0.17% of GDP) for 2015, which will push down next year's official headline fiscal deficit target to 4.1% of GDP from the previous 4.3% forecast. Budgetary consolidation cannot be "perpetually put off" Jens Weidmann, the president of the German central bank said over the weekend. The head of the German central bank has criticised the EU's decision to give France extra time to sort out its budget, hinting at a disagreement between Europe's two most powerful economies. Weidmann told a French newspaper that he feared last month's decision to give France more time to spell out plans to fix its budget deficit risked giving the impression that EU rules are up for negotiation – MNI. -

Debating a short..

Interesting hourly chart, I'm hoping for a cross for a long position as indices aren't doing much today.

Pound drops

Dollar index

Any effort by the European Central Bank to launch a massive quantitative easing programme this year would fail to revive the eurozone economy, according to a poll of 32 eurozone economists. The survey found that most expected the ECB to launch QE in 2015; catching up with the world’s other main central banks that have all bought large quantities of sovereign debt since the last financial crisis. A stuttering recovery and a worrying drop in inflation have raised fears of another financial crisis in the currency bloc and put pressure on policy makers to cast aside powerful opposition from Germany and begin purchasing sovereign debt; but most of the respondents expected growth and inflation to remain weak even with quantitative easing – FT.

Greece’s political parties embarked on a flash campaign for elections in less than three weeks that Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said will determine the fate of the country’s membership in the euro currency area. Samaras used a Jan. 2 speech to warn that victory for the main opposition Syriza party would cause default and Greece’s exit from the 19-member euro region, while Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras said his party would end German-led austerity – Bbg.

Germany has insisted that it expects Greece to stay in the eurozone, despite a news report claiming Berlin was ready to see Athens quit the common currency if the populist Syriza party wins this month’s snap election and reneges on the country’s reform programme. Der Spiegel magazine reported on Sunday that Chancellor Angela Merkel was abandoning her previous commitment to keeping Greece in the eurozone at any price, and preparing instead for a possible Greek exit in the event that Syriza, which has called for drastic debt cuts and an end to austerity, confronts EU partners with unacceptable demands – FT.

David Cameron hinted a Conservative government could bring forward a referendum on Britain’s EU membership, in a sign the prime minister does not want the question of Europe to dominate a second term in government. Mr Cameron, who has promised a vote by the end of 2017 if his party wins the general election in May, said he would be “delighted” if he could settle the matter before that deadline – FT.