The CEO states Tullow sp is much too low and I bought in on the comments---todays results are excellent and I feel this one is being overlooked on here. check it out bargain hunters-I'd welcome some expert feedback!

thanks cynic

I see TLW is continuing its dropdown to 620p currently. It feels like bad times for oilies. I remember buying this at 400p and sold at 700p. Looks like it will go back to 400p if oil price and economy are stumbling.

all oilies are being whacked at the moment; even PMO which came out with a good drilling update this morning

Merrill and the like say whatever they want to support their current position (presumably short). In a few weeks when their long they'll probably be saying $150 again like they were a few weeks previously.

If the dollar weakens against other currencies as predicted in the medium-long term, then oil priced in $ will go up / stay the same to retain the same value in the other currencies.

$100 acting like a magnet at the moment, or a lightbulb to a moth, low $90's providing strong support.

looks cheap now at 477

..and the rest -):

Gone back in long.

Seems to be a lot of Broker support with forecasts of over 700p

Latest broker buy on tullow..

Tullow Oil PLC

FORECASTS

2008 2009
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Oriel Securities
17-12-08 BUY 272.00 20.70 6.50 229.00 17.70 7.00

If the oil finds in Uganda are economically viable how long will it take to exploit these oil finds and what will it cost? There is no pipeline to Mombasa which is the nearest port suitable and which is 800 miles away? Cant see anybody building a pipeline with oil at $40.

depends whether or not you really think oil will stay at +/-$40 .... apart from anything else, it also makes TLW an interesting target at some point

Is oil really going to stay at $40 ?, I doubt it !, it might drop further but it will almost certainly rise to above the $60 mark or so within 2 years, probably sooner, they are not going to wait for that to happen before starting the pipeline construction.

It is possible TLW could go into partnership with the Uganda government to defray the cost of building a pipeline. Having seen what happened to Sterling Energy with their share of the cost of the Chingueti oilfield then a very careful appraisal is required to ensure the development costs do not exceed the potential earnings in Uganda. It seems also possible one of the large oil companies operating in Africa might become interested in the project.

Who would have thought Uganda would have so much oil ?, really incredible, I just hope that some of this new found wealth will work its way down to the needy and deserving good people of that part of the world in the form of hospitals, schools, and such infrastructure and not weapons for the military !.

Extract from todays Independent Irish edition: 3/01/2009

While the collapse in crude oil prices has been good news for Ryanair it has knocked the stuffing out of the Tullow share price. After peaking at over €12 in June it had fallen back to just €5.40 by mid-November. While oil prices have continued to fall since then the Tullow share price has perked up, ending the week at €6.97 as the market responded positively to good drilling news from its recently discovered oil prospects in Ghana and Uganda.

Following the recent share price rally Tullow has a market value of just €4.7bn making it the largest independent oil company in Europe. With the majors desperate to snap up promising new acreage it must surely only be a matter of time before one of the big boys makes Aidan Heavey an offer he can't refuse

Looks like we could get some more good news very soon......

Tullow Oil (Buy, Closing Price 6.85)
Commodity movement, Ghans & Gabon
Analyst: Gerry Hennigan

Items of note with respect to Tullow over the past week include: (i) infill drilling in Gabon; (ii) election results in Ghana; and (iii) geo-political events that are impacting commodity prices. With respect to the latter, the unrest in Gaza has obviously served to reverse the downward trend in crude prices with Brent this morning trading above $48/bbl. That said, a sustained move to the upside will require, in our view, some stability on the demand front or signs that previously announced OPEC cuts in supply have been adhered to. As with oil prices UK and European gas prices have also hardened. The move stems from another dispute between Gazprom and the Ukraine over payment, shutting off supply to the latter and threatening disruption to gas supply on the Continent. In Ghana, the opposition candidate John Atta Mills, has won the Presidential election and thus wrested power from the New Patriotic Party, headed by John Kufour, who has held office for the past two terms. The elections proceeded largely without incident underlining the level of perceived stability and democratic maturity in Ghana. The new government is not expected to alter any of the agreements currently in place with regard to its emerging oil and gas status, though as a lecturer in tax law, the newly installed Mr Mills will no doubt take a keen interest in events unfolding offshore.

Separately, Vaalco, the operator of the Ebouri and Etame fields in Gabon announced on the 31st that drilling at Ebouri had encountered additional "reservoir.....above the oil water contact", which is expected to increase the acreage and reserves of the field. Initial production from the latest Ebouri well is expected to commence this month. It also expects gross production on the Etame licence to increase to a rate of 25 kbopd from a current rate of 20 kbopd. Tullow has a 7.5% stake in both licences and hence, while the impact is marginal, it is nonetheless welcome, particularly in view of the fact that group production has trended down, a development, which we would expect to continue pending the addition of development projects such as Jubilee (Ghana).

And a bit more coverage missed....

"Tullow remains a top pick in the European E&P sector. With the shares now trading at a 57 percent discount to our NAV based valuation we see a rare opportunity to take a position ahead of a potentially transformational exploration led period with Tullow testing an aggregate of 3.5 billion barrels of reserve upside," Merrill Lynch says in a note. It rates Tullow as "buy". Oriel Securities also reiterates its "buy" rating on the stock.
11-12-08 11.12.08 :+82.5, (596.5) the UK-based explorer announces new oil finds in Ghana and Uganda which it expects to boost reserves, prompting Merrill Lynch to raise its net asset value (NAV) and target price. Tullow says the success of the new appraisal wells has "substantially increased" the proven extent of its Jubilee and Kingfisher fields. Merrill Lynch says as a result of the announcement it has increased its NAV for Tullow Oil by 32 pence to 1,298 pence a share and has raised its price target for the blue chip oil explorer to 840 pence a share, up from 810. The broker says it now has great confidence that there are sufficient reserves in the Jubilee field to underpin a second phase development. And Merrill Lynch now believes that Tullow has all but met the commerciality threshold for development of its Ugandan acreage. Shares in mid-cap Heritage Oil, which co-owns the Uganda oil block in which the Kingfisher well was drilled rose 6.7 percent.

Another splendid result......can you imagine what the sp would be now if oil was at $100 a barrel ?.

was about to leave the hotel in Hamburg as the markets opened so missed buying when sp was only +14 or thereabouts ...... may still take some

Another good drilling result....TLW doing fine !.

same drilling result .... just an update, but augurs well for the future