This share has started to rise rapidly after the trading update which was very encouraging. The company provides batteries for mobiles etc and alternative power supplies. floated at 135p-should be a good investment with results due on April 18th.

Here's Seymour Pierce's new comment from last week.

Note that the results are confirmed for 28th April - one week's time. Given continued low raw material prices (though lthe price of lead has increased a little recently), continued demand for CHNS' products and continued beneficial currency movements compared to last year the outlook should be rosy.

At 155p the historic P/E is now 3.7 - even a 50% share price rise would see a P/E of just 5.5. And it's likely imho that the 41.5p EPS forecast will be beaten anyway:

"China Shoto 3,5 (BUY) - Results preview
CHNS.L (142.5p) Market cap: 33m

China Shoto reports its FY 2008 earnings on 28 April. We expect the company to report PBT of 10.5m on revenue of 170m. This represents an uplift of 50% and 58% respectively. The company is a major beneficiary of cellular telecoms infrastructure spend. We believe the market will concentrate on the outlook for 2009 and 2010 in the context of the growth estimates for China and India. We note that Chinese first quarter GDP data is due out today. Growth of 6-7% is expected. While this is down on our December 2008 estimate of 8%, an above positive 5% number is exceptional relative to other global economies. Against this background we think China Shoto is well-positioned. China Shoto has a modest export exposure (less than 10% of sales) to India. We expect the company will update the market on trading in that territory on 28 April.

Shares in China Shoto have risen by 39% so far this year. Coincidentally, the Shanghai Composite index has risen by the same amount. On our December 2008 forecasts, the shares are trading at a PE multiple of just 3.5. We expect forthcoming results to prompt a re-rating."

CHNS issued terrific forecast-beating 2008 results today - the results were actually spot on 2009's forecasts as well:

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200904280700142...

They made 43.45p EPS compared to 41.5p as forecast, though this forecast had itself been raised 30% from around 31p only at the start of 2009 due to a "significantly ahead" trading statement.

At the current 180p they are now on a historic P/E of just 4.2.

Equally importantly, against a 42m m/cap they now have 22m of net cash, against 11m net borrowings last year. Their net cash flows from operating activities in 2008 were 38.57 million, equivalent to 383% of net profit!

Net creditors/debtors have increased greatly to 25m, so there may have been a little year end massaging going on, but this is still an extremely impressive performance.

CHNS are now "China's largest producer of back up batteries".

And it "intends to, ultimately, become a worldwide green energy solution provider. To that end, a new type of green energy storage product with high technology content is being developed.'"

CHNS effectively has its own research institute. It's already producing high-end lithium-ion batteries as well as the traditional lead-acid batteries, but it's also producing storage for wind power and solar power. I suspect the new storage solution is to do with electric cars (since CHNS already produces for electric bicycles), but I could be wrong.

I have great hopes that CHNS will continue to do well given its bullish domestic and global prospects.

The house (and only!) broker forecast has been increased today as follows:

- this year : 47p EPS (up from 43.5p)
- next year : 50.4p EPS

The 2008 forecasts proved far too cautious, and I believe this year's will be proven to be cautious too.

This year CHNS will get a full year's benefit rather than just a few months of:

- yuan currency appreciation against the pound
- lower raw materials prices
- and lower interest rate charges

At the current 180p, 47p EPS represents a current year P/E of just 3.7.

It's worth noting that net cash at 22m (including short-term investments) represents more than half the 41m m/cap.

And that tangible net assets represent over 50m....

One day the market will wake up to this share.

biggish spread; no volume; no liquidity
any other bright ideas as to why one should buy?

Er...try post 118. Quite apart from the 250k of shares traded today. Enough for most private investor tastes I'd have thought. Not a bad m/cap at 41m now too.

Certainly much better than the 95p share price not so long ago at which price cynic was still living up to his name :o)) Shame he didn't pick some shares up at that time.

i make no apologies about having a very jaundiced view of chinese companies that are then floated onto the gullible occidental markets.

You are I presume having a laff, aren't you.

Any cursory glance at the figures should tempt even the most cynical investor

The share price is now up to 195p - this for a company which:

- made 43p EPS last year
- is conservatively forecast to make 47p EPS this year
- has 22m of net cash against a 46m m/cap
- pays a 5p dividend
- and at a 46m m/cap is valued at less than its tangible net assets

In addition:

- SCSW magazine is out tomorrow. Having backed CHNS in the past, hopefully this issue should have positive coverage of the recent results for its readership to ponder this weekend

- and next Tuesday is the AGM, when we should get a trading update RNS which by all accounts should be nicely positive given all the good news about Chinese and Indian telecoms, power industry and railway infrastructure growth and stimuli, as well as growth in the wind power, solar power and electric vehicle sectors.

The share price is now nicely up to 202p.

The EPS forecast for this year is 47p EPS, with 50.4p EPS for next year (43p EPS achieved last year) There's also a 5p divi.

At 202p the P/E is just 4.3, and CHNS still trades at barely its tangible NAV, with almost half its m/cap in 22m cash!

The average rate for sterling last year against the yuan was 12.86. Even though the pound has risen slightly recently, at the current rate of 11.3 CHNS will continue to benefit strongly from exchange rates this year.

Given:

- lower raw material prices
- favourable exchange rate movements
- lower interest payable on borrowings
- the explosion in Chinese and Indian telecoms

I'm hopeful that 47p EPS this year is a conservative estimate. There may be an increased tax charge this year, and lead raw material prices have rebounded somewhat recently, but these minor negatives should be heavily outweighed by the various large positives above imho.

There could still be an H1 trading statement - this could happen in the next month or so given the 30/6 period end.

We can also be confident that trading to date this year is at least in line with expectations since no update was given at the AGM.

Online looks very promising too - hardly any stock available to buy, whereas you can sell lots at a premium.

Early next year we could be looking forward to 55p-60p EPS if all goes well. On a P/E of just 6 this would give a 330p-360p share price, whilst on a P/E of 10 we're looking at 550p-600p.

No, IMO.

WCC (West China Cement) is the sensible choice for China exposure. There are a number of questions with CHNS which need to be answered by further results statements and in depth looking at the balance sheet.

It's possible to hold more than one stock in a portfolio :o))

As I say, the EPS forecast for this year is 47p EPS, with 50.4p EPS for next year (43p EPS achieved last year) There's also a 5p divi.

At 202p the P/E is just 4.3, and CHNS still trades at barely its tangible NAV, with almost half its m/cap in 22m cash!

The average rate for sterling last year against the yuan was 12.86. Even though the pound has risen slightly recently, at the current rate of 11.3 CHNS will continue to benefit strongly from exchange rates this year.

Given:

- lower raw material prices
- favourable exchange rate movements
- lower interest payable on borrowings
- the explosion in Chinese and Indian telecoms

I'm hopeful that 47p EPS this year is a conservative estimate. There may be an increased tax charge this year, and lead raw material prices have rebounded somewhat recently, but these minor negatives should be heavily outweighed by the various large positives above imho.

There could still be an H1 trading statement - this could happen in the next month or so given the 30/6 period end.

We can also be confident that trading to date this year is at least in line with expectations since no update was given at the AGM.

Online looks very promising too - hardly any stock available to buy, whereas you can sell lots at a premium.

Early next year we could be looking forward to 55p-60p EPS if all goes well. On a P/E of just 6 this would give a 330p-360p share price, whilst on a P/E of 10 we're looking at 550p-600p.

Stop repeating yourself we got it the first time. held these for 3years and only just got my dosh back plus div, so will be putting on the back burner and see if your right. Hope you are but have my doubts.

Balerboy, I'm glad you're back to breakeven. You must have bought at around the all-time highs. Since then CHNS has more than doubled its EPS and improved its Balance Sheet no end - yet here we are merely at the same share price as 3 years ago, on a P/E of barely above 4 and paying a 5p divi.

Investments have to be constantly reassessed, and given CHNS' global prospects in telecoms, let alone in wind and solar power, electric bikes and cars, railways, power infrastructure etc I'm happy that with around 200p per share of tangible assets the current 202p share price is good value imho.

Don't forget the ever increasing focus on the green side.

As this company expands and enters deeper into exisiting overseas markets, plus opens new ones up, this is going to be one of the key SP's

There is what I believe is EXTREMELY important news up last week on the CHNS web site.

China Mobile have now announced the results of their procurement of back-up batteries for the near future.

CHNS's subsidiary, Jiangsu Shuangdeng, are easily the biggest supplier of all the companies in every category shown. This should secure a large portion of CHNS' sales for a while to come imho:

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&...

The last time CHNS was at the current 205p share price the P/E was around 11 or 12 from memory, since when:

- the historic EPS has more than doubled to 43p EPS
- the Balance Sheet has improved immeasurably
- the 49m tangible net assets STILL exceed the current 48m m/cap
- CHNS hasn't put a foot wrong, and has always underplayed its prospects
- CHNS has successfully entered the wind and solar power markets
- and has developed electric car batteries, lithium-ion batteries etc

If CHNS were now to trade at the same P/E it would be at 500p. But in the present climate even a P/E of 6 would see a 260p-290p share price.

If you take the 210p tangible assets per share as a base and add on a P/E of 6 for the trading business, you arrive at a 500p current sum of the parts value for CHNS.

Given the 43p EPS last year, together with:

- improved currency translation since then
- much reduced average raw material prices
- reduced interest payable given the hugely positive cash turnaround (there was 2.8m interest paid last year!)
- together with the bullish outlook and telecoms boom in China, India etc

...I'm hopeful that this year's 47p EPS forecast is understated. There may be an increased tax charge, and lead raw material prices have rebounded somewhat recently, but these minor negatives should be heavily outweighed by the various large positives above imho.

PS : the above was posted on the wrong thread by mistake earlier, so here it is.

From this new article about solar power in China, I gather that CHNS' home province of Jiangsu is one of the key hubs of Chinese solar power technology. Which is handy for CHNS and its solar power energy storage systems:

http://www.telecom.globalsources.com/gsol/I/Portable-solar/a/9000000106028.htm

"Chinas portable solar power systems segment is benefiting heavily from substantial investment in PV cells and related products. The latter is driven by the rapid growth of the worldwide solar power industry, which has registered more than 40 percent CAGR in the past 10 years.

More importantly, it has resulted in a bustling support chain that supplies a range of modules, main controllers, batteries and inverters, enabling most manufacturers to purchase the key components domestically. The countrys output of PV cells in 2008 surpassed 2000MW, accounting for 37 percent of global production."

"Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces are the key hubs, where more than 100 providers of PV cells and panels are likewise based."

And more here about solar power in CHNS' home province of Jiangsu - 20 large solar power plants to be built there.

CHNS also supply the nuclear power industry BTW:

http://green.venturebeat.com/2009/08/05/china-moves-toward-aggressive-renewable-energy-strategy/

"Chinas energy administration is drawing up plans to increase power generation from renewable sources to 15 percent of the nations total by 2020. To do so, the country will rely more on solar, wind and biomass energy with the goal of deriving more than 200 million emissions-free kilowatts.

While 15 percent might not seem like a lot in California where the mandate is 33 percent of the states total by 2020, the figure is pretty ambitious for a country with such a massive population and higher technological hurdles. In fact, 15 percent would be 13 times Chinas current amount of energy generated by renewables (about 15 million kilowatts, according to VentureWire). The proposal would significantly revise a current target of 60 million kilowatts by 2020.

Achieving the raised bar would require substantial financial investment by the Chinese government and private backers. Rough estimates put the amount at $658.8 billion dollars (or as high as $1.3 trillion including investments from component makers and others) a staggering number that is closer to the U.S.s full $787 billion stimulus package than the $60 billion going to cleantech industries.

Already, there are plans for 20 large solar power plants in Jiangsu Province, and proposals for wind power facilities to be located off the coast of Shanghai. Meeting these renewable sources halfway, the country already has a nuclear strategy in the works that could boost that brand of energy production to 86 million kilowatts (5 percent of energy production) by 2020. Today, nuclear accounts for little more than 9 million kilowatts in China."

Looking good online now - there's just 750 shares at 213.75p available to buy at maximum now, reduced from 10,000....and you can sell plenty at 206p.

A little buying interest now could have a significant impact.

If anyone wanted any more comfort, then remember that CHNS "accounts for over 90% of ZTE's total back-up battery purchases"...

....and note this from ZTE's results this week:

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/3431738

"In 1H09, ZTEs CDMA base stations achieved a record high shipment volume of 75,000 units: 1.5 times greater than total shipments in 2008. Meanwhile, the Companys WiMAX products have successfully entered high-end markets including Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Japan and various European countries."

I particularly like the geographic expansion as above and:

"In 1H09, ZTE continued collaboration with mainstream operators from the worlds top 20 most populous countries including Indonesia, Vietnam and Turkey while also successfully forging partnerships with tier-one operators from Europe and the Americas including Verizon, TeliaSonera, Telstra and Telenor. Specific to product groups, ZTE registered year-on-year revenue growth of 46.2% for carriers networks, 29.8% for handset products and 29.2% for telecommunication software systems, services and other products during the reporting period. In the wireless sector, ZTEs industry-leading SDR solution promotes the long-term development of GSM/UMTS/LTE and CDMA products, facilitating a strong increase in market share and competitiveness.

The Companys UMTS products have been deployed by mainstream operators in countries with heavy populations including Indonesia, Vietnam and Turkey and branches of Telstra, TeliaSonera and SingTel, three leading global operators."

Excellent results today:

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200909150700040351Z

To achieve 23.4p EPS for H1 is excellent imo given the H1 world economic climate, as exemplified by the big drop in overseas/Indian sales in the half. The Chinese telecoms boom, which will continue for the next 3 years, is what held up sales and profits, as I hoped they would do.

I believe CHNS remain cheap given:

- a P/E of 4.6 at the current 217p based on 47p EPS
- 20m cash including short-term investments, i.e 40% of the m/cap
- CHNS' m/cap remains less than its tangible NAV
- the likelihood of Indian and other export markets recovering soon

It's also worth noting:

- H2 is usually better than H1 in both profit and cash flow terms
- unusually there were 1.1m of impairment provisions. For example, WNN this morning announced a "normalised" EPS excluding impairments - if CHNS had announced similarly the EPS would have been substantially higher at around 28p EPS
- the new lead recycling plant could be a catalyst for a re-rating
- CHNS have scrapped the interim divi previously, before reinstating the full divi at the finals, so this isn't new. After due consideration of working capital needs and the new recycling plant I feel this will happen again (see below)
- note the 4.3m cash inflows from operating activities (i.e after debtor/creditor movements), compared to the 4m cash outflow last H1, in this the seasonally weaker period

There are negatives:

- results would have been reasonable, but not half so impressive without yuan currency appreciation over the last H1
- the Chairman's going is unexpected, and the resulting combined CEO/Chairman post is not good corporate governance. Perhaps they'll announce a replacement.

Seymour Pierce are very positive today as follows (pasted from another bb) - they haven't always been so regarding their own clients. They should also add the short-term investments on to the cash balance as they have in the past - CHNS actually have 20m net cash including these:

"China Shoto 3,5 (BUY) - Going Green: H1 Results to 30 June 2009
CHNS.L (240p) Market cap: 56m

Results reflect strong demand from China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom which are increasing network coverage and need backup batteries to support mobile infrastructure. Accordingly, China Shoto reported sales growth of 41% for the six month period and 47% uplift in pretax profit. This margin expansion reflects a lower lead price and a larger proportion of sales coming from backup batteries.

These results show a pretax profit of 6.4m on revenue of 96.4m for the six month period. Our full year forecast is a pretax profit of 12.5m on revenue of 200m. We are therefore comfortable that China Shoto is on course to achieve this estimate.

The company has announced that it intends to invest in a new lead acid battery recycling project. We see this as a prudent step by China Shoto to offset environmental concerns with its product suite. Accordingly, the group will not pay a dividend at the interim stage as capital expenditure increases. We retain our forecast of a 5p full year dividend. Investors should be mindful that Mr Yang, Chairman and Chief Executive is the companys major shareholder with over 40% of the equity and his interests are aligned with other investors.

We note that China Shotos strong first half performance reflects domestic revenue. Export revenue in the first half was just 3.5m compared to 11.7m in the same period last year. India is China Shotos principal export market. We note that the company has been active in participating in trade fairs during the first half. These include locations from Moscow to Singapore. In the event that these efforts are transformed into sales, there could be incremental revenue in the second half.

China Shoto has announced that the companys Chairman is step down. Cao Guifa joined the company at flotation in 2005. The companys major shareholder and chief executive, Mr Yang will take on the role of Chairman.

Our 2009 estimates suggest that the company should generate eps of 47p. This places the company on a 2009 prospective PER of just 5.1. The company had a net cash balance of 9m at the end of June which gives comfort for a company which is growing so quickly.

Jim McCafferty | Research Analyst | 020 7107 8070 |
jimmccafferty@seymourpierce.com"

Interim dividend slashed.

Cash down by a large amount.

Exports falling.

Weak statements.

Inventory and Debtors rise by large amounts.

Boardroom problems and the major holder who no becomes CEO and Chairman (meaning that in terms of transparency CHNS is even worse IMO) (And its not a good time given their statements today to be becoming less transparent)


Thats why the price went down and will likely keep in a falling trend in the coming weeks and months.

And those currency movements really do "hype" the figures. If you convert the figures back to RMB you can see a different tale.

2008 1st half sales = 957,723,147 RMB
2008 2nd half sales = 1,424,220,260 RMB
2009 1st half sales = 985,157,893 RMB

So sales are really near flat on H1 2008, and well down from H2 2008 to H1 2009.

2008 Interim RMB to Pound rate was 13.9622
2008 Prelims RMB to Pound rate was 12.4398
2009 Interims RMB to Pound rate was 10.2127


So as they report in sterling their sales, EPS, cash etc.. are all being nicely boosted by the falling pound as they convert from RMB to pounds. However, this little "performance enhancer" is now over (and its been worth 30% boost to sterling figures from 2008 interims to 2009 interims)

Always convert figures back to local currency when you get these AIM companies that report in sterling and get a nice boost from currency movements, a better and more transparent picture appears.