The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

skinflint

Nice to have some cash to invest. Every time I want to buy something I have to sell something I think is really good! So, should it be SEY or PET? Fristly, where I am coming from. I suspect you may have visited the ASC bb where we set up an ASOS challenge and 10 of us put forward our canditates to beat ASOS in doubling (ASOS is leading hands down, but I am backing PET to win!). Several were competing to nominate the oil shares: PCI, SEY and PET. I took a position in each of them but, as is my wont, set them to compete with each other and ended up consolidating in PET. SEY are fine. Their is not much downside risk; they have cleared their funding overhang from the Mauretania deal; Mauretania potential is significant and they have an inside position with the government. No reason I can see why they shouldn't double in six months, put perhaps not much more.

PET have, I believe, a unique inside track with the Iraqi governing party, which, I am quite convinced, are not in the pockets of the USA (as implied above). The contracts won by HSBC and JPMorgan are very significant in this respect. So, why PET and not SEY. The downside risk is 1 per share, or 99% approximately, if you like. If you don't like that, stay away. The upside risk is 'n'. The Shares magazine said, in evaluating my portfolio, that 'I am comfortable with risk'. I am comfortable with risk because, if there is isn't a downside, there can't be much upside, because otherwise the price would already be much higher. So how big is 'n'. I am an admirer of Jeremy Lacey so let him speak: 'PET could be another Cairn Energy'. Cap. of Cairn is 2.2 billion to the nearest 100M. So lets say the potential, perhaps over several years is 1 billion - just to be cautious! Then the value of 'n' could be 150. Funny, I like that sort of upside. Now following the approach in my reply above and you dispose of three of four tranches of shares in the first year or so, and you have n=10 so far, then n=40 overall and your 10K has become 400K. JL thinks that could happen, though I don't know whether he has put his money where his mouth is! I think that probably will happen and I have put my money where my keyboard is.

So, if you have a slice of dosh which you are prepared to say good bye to, it has to be PET. You just couldn't live with having said 'no'!

lol! atwttb!

Eric

Re post by Scottie 7, 1163 Washington Post Article.

I e-mailed Pet on this and a few other burning queries, why, i ask myself, well, why not! the responce from Pet was that they are 'unable to comment'.

This for me is fine, they have no need to bolster the sp or indeed alay any fears that the weaker 'risk' investor may have. The blackout of any info coming through from Pet is not disturbing, it shows a confidence in what they are doing and a greater importance for them to focus on contacts, awarded at this time or not, than reply to e-mails from the likes of me!!!!!!

IM HOLDING TIL THE END!!!!!!!!!

Eric- Very well put, I think all new people to this thread should start off by reading post 1170. As PET is a gamble, some people believe it is in the bag, because of the relationship PET have built up with the oil ministry(these are the same people that the Americans removed as they were working when Saddam was in power, but then had to reinstate them as the oil industry feel apart without them, I'm pretty sure they have NO love or loyalty for the yanks as many people believe the yanks are running things) and the fact that SCOP encouraged PET to tender for all 3 of these contracts, there is so much evidence pointing PET's way, but until the RNS is released saying "PET have won the tender(s)", then this share is still a gamble and only money you can afford to lose should be put into it, the upside is amazing, but the downside is equally devastating, the analogy that comes to mind, is that it is like backing the favourite to win a horse race @ about 4/1, everyone believes the horse has what it takes to win and the evidence is all there to say it can, but there is a long way from the start to the finish, I think many of us feel that we have travelled this race with Petrel, and are hoping that they cross the finish line first with the Iraqi oil tender.

Things are not 100% sure with this company, but I am very happy to leave 100% of my PET stock in until the announcement, I have great faith in the abilities of David Horgan, the relationships he has built up in Iraq, the current political situation points to an Irish company being a very sound choice.

Make what you will of the information on this board, as all the people on it have put in some great research and opinions, making this one of the best boards I've come across for PET related facts and information.


Tokyo

Very low volume today so far! Is this a pause before lift off! oh such wishful thinking. I do hate it when it goes so quiet.

Maybe the best thing would be to have a BB blackout.

That way we wouldn't be able to wind each other up so much, and the time might pass a bit quicker!!!

a 50k 'T' sell, at 1.05? still low volume

Tokyo

Thanks for that post. I had been racking my old brain ticker for reasons why this might not happen: oil field explosions almost help it to happen; assassinations? big boys flexing muscles? So, I thought, what if the Iraqi decision makers change their minds at the last minute, perhaps under US duress. You have answered that! It is self-evident, anyway I suppose, because the strongest calling card that PET clearly has is just that they have been calling for six years; confidence has been built up; the Iraqi's know that they have the skills, will act as an effective front man, and will deliver. OK, as Chirac is saying to Blair, there is no pay-back from the US. But, the HSBC/Morgan shows the loyalty of the Iraqi's. Back to my quiet confidence again!

Eric

Got this article from the Bahrain Tribune. On reading, could it be that all is on hold with such turmoil at this time. Although there is no mention of PET at all. Could be off track here guys! Any thoughts appreciated


Saudi, Kuwait cut crude prices; oil falls below $47 to 8-week low
Nicosia: Proposals for major reforms in Iraq’s oil industry have been put on hold as the interim government concentrates on its daily problems, the Middle East Economic Survey reported yesterday.
The Cyprus-based weekly publication said proposals from senior government officials over the past few months were being shelved as priority went to improving security and preparing parliamentary elections in January.
Some of the immediate problems include the frequent attacks on the domestic and export pipeline system and on oil installations, as well as the safety of oil employees, many of whom have been killed. Other problems were provision of adequate petroleum products supplies for the domestic market and preventing the smuggling of crude and products to neighbouring countries.
Another issue of grave concern was sustaining present production capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day, while gradually raising this to 3.0 million barrels per day over the coming year.
The Ministry of Oil was also embarking on the development and construction of projects to enhance capacity and operations, while the appropriation of a capital expenditure budget of three billion dollars had already been approved by the cabinet, the highest figure in a single year.
The MEES report added that the Ministry of Oil was keen to establish contacts with international oil companies, despite the security conditions which stopped executives visiting Iraq. Companies such as ChevronTexaco, Shell, ExxonMobil, Lukoil, BP, Petronas, Ivanhoe and Tigris had been approached to assist in the Iraqi oil establishment.

gra1969

Sensible and helpful to do post! First, it refers to major reforms. Second, it gives priority to sustaining present production of 2.5M barrels and increasing it to 3M barrels over next year. As I understand it, we are talking about something like a year for these two new oilfields to come on stream so that they are a fundamental part of short-term tactics rather than part of longer-term strategy.

Eric

Many thanks Eric,

keep hunting for anything relevant to us all and our beloved PET, hard to come up with much at moment though, goes back to tight lipped PET working hard behind the scenes im sure!

gra1969 - I think we've all been hunting, and PET have been true to their word about being "sworn to secrecy", their have been no news leaks from either the Iraqi oil ministry or PET, hence even the 22% rise last Friday didn't get a mention in the Weekend press as I'm sure when asked by the reporters DH's comment was "No comment", looking back through old newspaper reports Horgan or Teeling have always been glad to give them a quote, but since coming back from Jordan, not a pep. I feel that from now, there will be no news that we can trust, be it a positive or negative story, until the Oil ministry themselves announce the news, followed by PET issuing an RNS. I'm sure we will see a stream of journalists from all over the world reporting on oil contracts from Iraq, quoting this source and that, but when I have chased up these sources they have turned out to be quotes from web pages, or quotes from other articles.

The fact that PET are so tight lipped annoying as it is for us now, I feel will benefit us all in the weeks to come. From over the other side an investor called to see if DH would be attending the conference in Amman next week, and was still met with "No comment". Will people's guesses about an announcement before or after that conference be correct? Well we shall just have to wait, but I'm sure we are all hoping for the best!!! Until then the waiting continues........


Tokyo

tokyo,

so right, thinking about it, there is no whisper of a leak, simply articles being recycled in many forms. I am positive that the silence is only a good thing.

GLAD TO SEE NOT TOO MANY PEOPLE TRYING TO GUESS YOU KNOW WHAT? D.H.SAID THE END OF NOVEMBER THATS GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME

Hi food.

Good to see you here and good comment.

Patience.

Sworn to secrecey means exactly that!

Nothing will come out till everyone is ready.

having predicted the ramadan connection, i am set to eat the obvious pie. if the next thing on the horizon is the conference and that opportunity passess by its hold till the end of the month, again if it dips, then i got some funds coming my way at the end of the month, it might just affect my christmas shopping.

watcher

Sentiments exactly Watcher, if this does go to December, ill be topping up again. When this happens it ll be all your christmas's in one!!!!! ha ha!

This may be of interest guys. Tokyo and Eric, you prob. already seen this but may be of interest to others.

http://www.iraqprocurement.com/docs/oilgas.htm

Held in Jordan from 22-24th, 'Meet the Buyers' Iraqi Procurement Event.

Morning all,
Another day nearer christmas for all us PET holders,i wonder how many of us are going to buy property abroad with our HUGE PROFITS.I`ve been in this since Feb. 20th,when i bought my first lot, so a few more days ain`t going to make any difference. What would be nice(in a purely selfish way)is for all the de-rampers to shake the nervy investors to sell and push to sp down to 80p ish so i could top up!!.
regards,
Dexter

ps. would that give you another chance Tokyo !!?

gra1969 - I sent them an e-mail to see if PET were going, but they will not release the names of the companies attending, PET will not comment either(a poster called them yesterday). Many investors over the other side have been speculating for some time now whether the oil ministry will announce the tenders here as it is a perfect opportunity to show that they are open for business and handing out contracts to different companies. If some of the bigger investors also feel this way then we can expect a high rise on Friday as people start piling in in anticipation of this event

I'm just happy to wait and see, as both the oil minister & PET have said by the end of November.......although the sooner the better for my nerves!!


Tokyo


p.s. Dexter01 - no I've promised the wife no more top ups!!!(now where did I put my piggy bank???)

Tokyo, I get the feeling we are building up to a conclusion very shortly, all appears to be coming together! Any contacts at the airports to see if flights are booked out by PET!