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Chaco Resources(CHP)- new oil play (CHP)     

grevis2 - 21 Oct 2004 12:55


LONDON (AFX) - Chaco Resources PLC said it is proposing the reverse takeover
of two Paraguayan companies -- Amerisur SA and Bohemia SA -- from Candey SA and
Daniel Sztern in exchange for 27,322,404 new ordinary shares in the company.
It also plans to raise up to 750,000 stg before expenses in a placing of
36,585,365 new ordinary shares.
The company's shares were suspended on Sept 3 and it said it expects this to
be lifted today. It has called an EGM for Nov 15 to approve the acquisition and
placing plans.
Amerisur holds two oil and gas prospecting permits in Paraguay and is the
registered applicant for exploration and exploitation concession contracts over
the same permit areas. Bohemia holds registered applications for an oil and gas
prospecting permit in Paraguay and for an exploration and exploitation
concession contract over the same area.
The exploration areas covered by these three applications comprise a total of
approximately 48,000 square kilometres of the Curypayty and Parana Basins.
Chaco said these basins extend respectively into Bolivia and Brazil, where
commercial oil and gas production has been established for many years from
similar geological sections.


stewart3250 - 28 Dec 2005 15:27 - 1171 of 2227

I see Wins dropped the offer back to 7.3p, in a few weeks all this messing about with 0.001p will seem a distant memory, I have a real good feeling about them, I wish TMC would come good quick so I can shift more into Chaco.

There are always T20's I suppose, any thoughts anyone on timescale, if that third application is good or CDS hits, it will be straight into double figures.

bodeng - 29 Dec 2005 08:25 - 1172 of 2227

Buys today instead of sells would be nice!

Sharesure - 30 Dec 2005 13:31 - 1173 of 2227

CHP is absurdly cheap on current prospects with no speculative credit for the potentially good news on both Colombia (next week?) and Paraguay (next week and also at the end of March?)

bodeng - 30 Dec 2005 17:56 - 1174 of 2227

Sharesure
What happens at the end of March?

stewart3250 - 30 Dec 2005 19:15 - 1175 of 2227

Bodeng,

I assume Sharesure is referring to the situation that Paraguay is very quiet from now until then, the third application is the one and I think we will find out next week.

Anyone see KJ Kelly's forecast on price on the other board, he is saying 13.5p by end of 2006 or 18.5p if we get the third application, I will look at his calculations later however I would say that if oil flows with Alea and CDS is posative then it will be 25p + by April.

Sharesure - 31 Dec 2005 12:38 - 1176 of 2227

Bodeng/Stewart I was assuming that CDS will clarify/quantify their drilling results next week and that that should have a positive impact on Chaco because of their neighbouring and much larger exploration area. I don't think that CHP expect an answer on the third Paraguay licence area until much later in Feb. or more likely March. Not to be confused with Colombia where I reckon news will come in early January.
As for KJ Kelly's forecasts I think that they look extremely conservative to the point where they are wrong; has anyone seen a justification or the workings for those forecasts. I still have a hunch that CHP has the potential for being the 'Cairn' of South America.

stewart3250 - 31 Dec 2005 14:58 - 1177 of 2227

Sharesure, there you go and a Happy and Prosperous New Year to you and all others here.


My last thought for the year is wondering about the share price at the end of 2006. Any offers?.

Using Chaco's own figures I'm going nap on a share price of 18p, assuming that Chaco get Primavera.

***********************

Shares in issue - at 31.3.05 390m, plus shares issued re Paraguay 19m, placing 85m and options 13m. TOTAL 507M

Net assets:
1. Per balance sheet 31.3.05 - 1.3m
2. Future cash from exercise of options - 0.5m
3. Columbia, Alea, net present value end 2006 $86m - 49m
4. Columbia, Puerto Lopez, 2006 NPV could be worth $54m - 31m
5. Paraguay. CDS has areas exclusively in Paraguay and is drilling currently. It has a market capitalisation of 16.8m. I don't know how its areas compare with Chaco's but I am assuming its reasonable to equate the value of Chaco's Paraguay areas with those of CDS. Value of Chaco in Paraguay - 16.8m.

Therefore the 2006 net present value of Chaco's current assets is 98.6m.

The present net value per share of Chaco's assets is 91m divided by 507m shares, giving 19.5p.

The shares are currently priced at 7p, a discount of 61% on my projected Net Asset Value. I'm going to assume the discount will narrow to 30% as news emerges in 2006 on current assets. That gives a share price of 13.5p.

Now onto Primavera. If Chaco get a 55% stake and the resource estimate is 200m barrels, at soem 20 times the size of Puerto Lopez it implies a 2006 NPV of 310m, some 61p per share but until proven it might add 5p per share. I'm going to ignore any other new developments. Therefore, I'm going nap on a share price of 18p.

bodeng - 01 Jan 2006 16:17 - 1178 of 2227

KJ'S figures look very low to me!It would be great to get some good news early this week.

stewart3250 - 02 Jan 2006 10:52 - 1179 of 2227

From my google alert, I see it says still holding,


Sunday Telegraph

Jan 2 2006

Western Mail


During 2005 the Sunday Telegraph commented on 270 shares, of which 203 had gone up in value by the end of the year. It recommended selling 37 shares which continued to rise in value, although in many cases this was to lock in decent profits.

Its best tips were junior explorers Egdon Resources, which it tipped at 33.75p and sold at 61p, and Chaco Resources, which it bought at 2p and is still holding at 7.07p. Its worst tip was outdoor advertising firm Maiden Group whose shares fell by 58% from 227p when it was tipped in March to end the year at less than a pound.

The Financial Mail has created two share portfolios for 2006 - one for cautious investors and one for more courageous ones.

It says cautious investors should consider buying mobile phone group Vodafone, insurer Legal & General, restaurant group Gondola Holdings and miner Anglo American. It said that while there was no guarantee prices would not fall, the shares offered solid value for the risk-averse, and even if prices do drop, they should outperform the market as a whole.

For braver investors it suggests putting money into biotech group Cambridge Antibody Technology, Polyfuel, which develops plastic membranes that are used in fuel cells and could replace batteries, and oil group Northern Petroleum. It claims the risks of this portfolio are big, but so are the potential profits, and shares in the companies could rocket.

bodeng - 02 Jan 2006 12:13 - 1180 of 2227

Stewart
The publicity will help!

bodeng - 03 Jan 2006 11:22 - 1181 of 2227

Large buy over on CDS-hopefully good news for Chaco

bhunt1910 - 03 Jan 2006 11:56 - 1182 of 2227

Not sure that I class 7,200 as a large buy - assuming thqat I am looking at the same purchase of 80,000 as you are ??

stewart3250 - 03 Jan 2006 12:21 - 1183 of 2227

bhunt1910,

Looking at that trade now, is it a buy ? regretably it looks like a sell @ 7p to me, although I agree I don't think that trade indicates anything.

aldwickk - 03 Jan 2006 16:22 - 1184 of 2227

Clutching at straws, LOL

stewart3250 - 04 Jan 2006 09:52 - 1185 of 2227

This is a post from another board, I would be interested in anyone's thoughts on it, Alfred are you about, how do you see this compared to Chaco's application, their market cap is nearly 100M but even so not much of an increase so far


Based on the Global Energy new licence we might expect only a 5% increase in share price if their experience is anything to go by today.

*********
GLOBAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PLC

NEW CONTRACT SIGNED IN COLOMBIA

CARACOLI AREA WITHIN THE PROMINENT MARACAIBO BASIN

Global Energy Development PLC ("Global" or the "Company"), the Latin America
focused petroleum exploration and production company (LSE-AIM: "GED"), is
pleased to announce that it has signed a new exclusive Exploration and
Production Concession contract for the Caracoli area (the "Caracoli Contract")
with the National Hydrocarbons Agency of the Republic of Colombia. The Caracoli
Contract brings to seven the number of contracts Global now holds in Colombia,
all of which are 100% owned by Global.

The Caracoli Contract covers approximately 90,000 acres in the Catatumbo basin
located in north-eastern Colombia, with this basin being a sub-basin of the
prominent Maracaibo basin which extends in a south-westerly direction from
Venezuela into Colombia.

The Maracaibo basin exported its first oil in 1918, from 1927 to 1970 was the
largest oil exporter in the world, and today remains the second most
petroliferous basin in the world according to the U.S. Department of Energy and
Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. ("PDVSA"), Venezuela's state oil company. PDVSA
estimates total original hydrocarbons in place are 320 billion barrels of oil
plus 90 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, with approximately 40 billion
barrels of hydrocarbons produced through to the end of 2004.

The Catatumbo sub-basin has produced over 800 million barrels of oil to date,
according to the Colombian Ministry of Mines and Energy, from a number of
different fields to the north of and adjacent to the Caracoli Contract area.

Due to the high expectations the management of Global have for the Caracoli
Contract, Global and its technical staff have already extensively studied the
area, completed preliminary geologic analysis and selected the location of
seismic acquisition. Several mapped structures in the Contract area have the
same geologic history as the prolific adjacent oil fields. As a consequence, the
management of Global consider the Caracoli area to have a favourable potential
for major oil discoveries.

Global will own 100% of the Caracoli Contract subject only to an initial 8%
royalty, with the size of the royalty to be determined by future production
le

vels.

Newtrim - 04 Jan 2006 14:50 - 1186 of 2227

What time is it?......."CHACO TIME"......When are we going to hear anything?.....My divorce settlement is coming through soon and I need the cash!!! Holding out as long as I can!!!

anotherxiii - 04 Jan 2006 15:41 - 1187 of 2227

as an eternal optomist
may I suggets that you settle PRIOR to 'Chaco Time'
unless you are not positive that is!

bodeng - 05 Jan 2006 11:01 - 1188 of 2227

Another week for news I hear!

blackdown - 05 Jan 2006 17:21 - 1189 of 2227

Who from?

Sharesure - 05 Jan 2006 17:48 - 1190 of 2227

I'd be interested to know that too as I believe that CHP couldn't answer that at the moment; they are at the mercy of civil servants who probably like a long Xmas break and will only deal with the decision/paperwork when they decide to. I suspect that CHP won't have to wait that long but putting an exact timescale on these decisions has proved impossible on the first two deals. The important thing is that they get the right decision - hurrying a civil servant may be the wrong way to achieve that aim!
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