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CFA CAPITAL - EXCITING YEAR AHEAD (DGT)     

SueHelen - 31 Mar 2004 10:42

Final Results Due In March 2005.

http://www.cityfin.co.uk
Trades over 450,000 shares are delayed in reporting by 1 Hour.

One of City Financial Associates (CFP's) main operating goals is to bring fledgling companies to the market. With the depressed stock market over the last few years many potential clients have deffered entry to the LSE. Markets have now turned and the reality of a sucession of new floatations is growing. CFP are well positioned to enjoy the rewards that will be benefited to them in this growing market place.

Why the EXCITEMENT - will here are the reasons why I think we're on a winner.

1) My motto is when it's comes to investing there are three things. Management, management and management. With any good investment - the management should be the driving force in a company. Can they cut the mustard, are they dynamic, do they have good contacts? I think so if you read the following profile.

Stephen Barclay, Executive Chairman

Stephen Barclay, aged 61, qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1964 with Robson Rhodes before obtaining an MBA degree from Wharton Business School in 1967. In 1989, after a career during which he reorganised various companies, he established City Financial Associates Plc (formerly Clifton Financial Associates Plc) to provide corporate finance advice to small to medium sized private and public companies. In August 1998, City Financial Associates Plc was purchased by Talisman House Plc (now Seymour Pierce Group Plc) where he became group executive chairman. In December 1998, Talisman House Plc purchased an institutional stockbroker, Seymour Pierce Limited, where he became executive chairman. He resigned as a director of Seymour Pierce Group Plc and various other group companies at the end of March 2001 to found CFA Capital Group Plc. He is a director of a number of public companies including MICE Group Plc and Talisman First Venture Capital Trust Plc and is a governor of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

John Shaw, Executive Director

John Shaw, aged 54, qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1975 with Touche Ross & Co in London. Subsequently he spent two years seconded to the Quotations Department of the London Stock Exchange returning to Touche Ross & Co to join the Corporate Finance Group until 1982. After a period as a sole practitioner, he joined Chase Investment Bank Limited in 1985, was appointed a director and founded the Equity Investment Group, formed to invest in unquoted companies. In 1990 he joined Henry Ansbacher & Co Limited as an Assistant Director of Corporate Finance. He started working with City Financial Associates Plc in early 1995 and was appointed a director in December 1996. He was appointed a director of Seymour Pierce Limited in December 1998 where he was initially Head of Corporate Finance and latterly Head of Private Equity. He resigned from Seymour Pierce Limited and various other group companies at the end of March 2001 to found CFA Capital Group Plc.

2) They have turned a 2 million loss into nearly a profit if you ignore costs for discontinuing operations - that some turn around.

3) With only small market capital of 3.83M it's feasible to suggest they could make a good profit this year as they have already got off to a good start signing more clients.

A profit of half million would give a pe ratio of 7.66

1 million a pe ratio of 3.83

1.5 million a pe ratio of 2.55

2 million a pe ratio of 1.91.

So it would only take a small profit to make this company super undervalued. Consider the possibility they could achieve a 2 million profit this year, which is the least, I expect, we could be looking at a share price of 7p. YES THAT'S 7P (An average p/e for the sector is 16.) Even with a profit of only 1 million that's still an upside of 3.5p.

3) Consider the fact that some of their clients pay their fee by way of giving large share holdings to CFP. All it would take is two or three creamy companies to give them valuable portfolio holding which they could cash in at a substantial return.

4) The IPO is sector has already increased three fold this year. More and more companies are coming into AIM and from abroad then ever before. Rules have changed where foreign companies can use a fast track scheme to get on board more quickly then ever before. I'm sure CFA Associates are well positioned to benefit with this increase in volume.

5) We could see a re-rating this year in this sector, which would be the cherry on the top.

I rest my case, to me this is a no brainer unless you want to wait for the next results for proof they have achieved profitability. If that's your cautious approach, fine but by then, you can then expect a much higher share price then now.

Major Shareholdings:
Stephen John Barclay 64,600,000 11.66%
Pershing Keen Noms Ltd 49,610,000 8.95%
John Richard Shaw 29,400,000 5.31%

RNS Number:9414C
CFA Capital Group PLC
15 September 2004

CFA Capital Group plc
Interim results for the 6 months ended 30 June 2004
CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

Highlights

* Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM companies - broker to 15 AIM companies

* Currently handling a number of AIM flotations and other major transactions

* Strong second-half order book - solid outlook for year

* Turnover for the period up 95% to #510,000 (6 months to 30 June 2003:
#262,000 from continuing operations)

* Losses before taxation of #58,000, (loss 6 months to 30 June 2003:
#208,000 from continuing operations)

* Currently recruiting to further strengthen team

Introduction
I am pleased to announce that CFA is now retained as Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM
companies and broker to 16 AIM companies. The company is currently working on a
number of AIM flotations and other major transactions, and as such has built a
strong order book for the second half of 2004. The fees generated by this
activity, taken together with our underlying retainer income and largely-fixed
overhead base, leaves us well-positioned for a satisfactory outcome to the year
as a whole.

Sharply reduced losses for the first half were achieved even though we had to
incur costs on two flotations that were not completed until July 2004 which
generated revenues of #225,000. These revenues were not recognised in the
results to 30 June 2004.

Turnover for the period nonetheless increased 95% to #510,000 (6 months to 30
June 2003: #262,000 from continuing operations), with losses before taxation of
#58,000 showing a marked improvement from #208,000 (6 months to June 2003 -
continuing operations).

Following the sale of CFA Securities Limited in 2003, CFA is now firmly focused
on servicing the needs of clients who are essentially AIM listed companies run
by entrepreneurs. We now have a team of eight, comprising executives and support
staff, providing corporate finance and broking advice. We are in the process of
recruiting further executives to join the team. This recruitment will ensure
client service levels are maintained as we meet the increasing demand for our
services.

In accordance with my statement on the results for the year to 31 December 2003,
CFA started the beginning of 2004 with a good pipeline of work and with a degree
of optimism that market conditions would enable these deals to be completed and
this was the case in the first quarter to 31 March 2004. However, in the second
quarter, in a number of cases transactions that we anticipated completing in the
first half have either been completed since the end of June or have been
deferred. This adversely affected our earlier expectations of financial
performance in the first half of the year.

Financial review
Despite these factors CFA achieved a creditable result in the first half.
Turnover was #510,000 (6 months ended 30 June 2003: #262,000 from continuing
operations), overheads (including plc running costs) were #609,000 (2003:
#458,000 on continuing operations) and the loss before taxation for the period
was #58,000 (6 months ended 2003: loss #208,000).

These results need to be seen in the context of our having completed the
flotation of Smallbone plc (admitted to AIM on 26 July) and Ragusa Capital plc
(admitted to AIM on 15 July). No income is taken into account in the period in
respect of these transactions, although a significant amount of the costs
relating to these flotations were incurred in the period.

CFA is now retained as Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM companies and retained Broker
to AIM 15 companies. Annualised recurring income currently totals over #340,000
representing approximately 30 per cent of total budgeted group costs, and we
anticipate that our level of retainers and this source of revenue will show a
significant increase by the year end. Our increasing base of retained clients
not only provides a source of recurring revenue but is also a prime source of
transactions.

On 27 May 2004 we announced a placing of 65 million new ordinary shares at a
price of 0.7p per share, to raise #441,340 net of expenses. As at 31 December
2003 the net assets of CFA Capital Group plc were #534,000. The impact of the
placing and the small loss in the period, has been to increase the Group's net
worth as at 30 June 2004 to #914,000, creating a sound financial base.

Current trading
We currently have a strong order book both in respect of a number of AIM
flotations and other transactions partially arising through our existing client
base. On the basis that we complete a good number of these transactions, we
anticipate a satisfactory outcome for the year as a whole.

Summary
On 31 July 2004, John Shaw stood down as a Director of CFA Capital Group plc and
all Group companies. John has worked with me for over 10 years and was a founder
shareholder of the Company in 2001. The Board thanks John for his significant
contribution and wishes him well for the future.

The Board also extends its thanks to the entire team for their efforts so far
this year.

draw?scheme=Colourful&startDate=31%2F03%big.chart?symb=uk%3Acfp&ma=0&maval=9&uf=big.chart?symb=uk%3Acfp&ma=0&maval=9&uf=big.chart?symb=uk%3Acfp&ma=1&maval=10&ufbig.chart?symb=uk%3Acfp&ma=1&maval=50&ufbig.chart?symb=uk%3Acfp&ma=1&maval=200&u

EWRobson - 09 Oct 2004 21:28 - 1177 of 1892

Just taking a look at CFA at the beholding of my sparring partner ptholden who has nominated CFP to a portfolio on the ASC bb. The initial CFP entry above looks a tad optimistic. However, on the basis of say 6 floats (2 in July plus three referred to above plus 1) could give 1m t/o in second half and a profit of something like 200K, a p/e of about 20. Projections for next year might then reduce the p/e to 10 and there would be a justification for, say, a 50% rise in price. What is the reaction of you guys who know the company far better than me? It seems to be in a small niche market, which I like. I like the management qualification and low key style. Of course, they don't give analyst projections on their own shares. Initial reaction is that there is a good case for investing but not for going over-board. Comments?

Eric

overgrowth - 09 Oct 2004 23:37 - 1178 of 1892

Hi Eric,

As an outsider looking in, I would come to the same conclusions as yourself, however I believe that there is much more hidden potential with CFP than is immediately obvious.

As CFP gain more and more companies under their belt, they have a consistently increasing guaranteed annual source of income from NOMAD fees (it is possible at some point in the future that these fees alone will cover all expenses - leaving any other deals, consultancy, placements etc. to go straight to the bottom line).

I note that your projections rely on fees from floatations, however, annual fees and floatation fees are not where CFP make most of their money. It is in the percentage cut they take for operating as broker for placements (i.e. selling their clients to institutions). Placements are quite common for AIM companies, for starters at the same time as floatation (for virtually all companies) and several times afterwards as the companies need the financial backing to grow.

CFP at the moment don't look exciting enough for anyone to go over-board, however I believe that longer term we are looking at a classic growth story. Here are some points to consider:

1) Management are highly competant and are well respected in the square mile.
2) AIM market is bouyant and is expected to be like this for some time.
3) Revenue from NOMAD fees is increasing with each new flotation.
4) Placements are very lucrative (fees at 4-10% of amount raised).
5) Plenty of deals in the pipeline.
6) The company are expanding - more staff needed to handle the pipeline work.
7) The media are just starting to cotton on to the potential here.

I don't expect CFP to "explode" in bio./tech. stock style, though I believe that all the pointers are there to a sustained increase in share price as CFP take on more and more business and hence there is a definite investment case (plus they're an AIM stock themselves, so if you're plagued by CGT - you can save yourself up to 30% of your selling price if you hold for 2 years+).

All the best

OG

EWRobson - 10 Oct 2004 00:04 - 1179 of 1892

OG

I appreciate your comprehensive and impressive response. There was no mention of placements in the interim results but clearly that will be a key part of their services to the 15 clients for whom they act as broker. Interesting that, as analysts, they don't seem to promote their own business that well - probably because they don't need to: their overhead level is low and they are probably now cash-flow positive. When would you expect positive news-flow to impact the price?

Many thanks, Eric

ptholden - 10 Oct 2004 01:03 - 1180 of 1892

Eric,

In addition to Overgrowth's excellent summation, I think you have underestimated the likely profit for the Full Year results. I posted this earlier in the thread, following the Interims:

Turnover excluded from Interims = 225,000
Recurring income = 170,000, (half of figure stated in Interims)
Turnover we already know about = 395,000
Annual Budgeted Group Costs = 1,130,000, (Extrapolated from 340,000 recurring income representing 30% of Costs)
Running costs in first six months = 609,000
Therefore costs in next six months should be approx = 521,000
H1 Loss = 58,000
Costs we know about for H2 = 579,000
Therefore Break Even Turnover required in next six months = 184,000

The recurring income figure is probably quite conservative, as the CEO states in the Interims, 'recurring income is expected to increase significantly in the second half.' I wouldn't be surprised if this could equal or even surpass 184,00, which means that any placements etc will all go to the bottom line. I am rather hopeful that we will see a minimum profit of 250k, but more likely something in the region of 500k. Last year H2 turnover was in the region of 1,000,000!

A downside to CFA is that they are crap at 'talking themselves up.' More often than not they don't even seem to announce that they have done something, leaving it to the Company for which they have been acting to make the announcement. Hopefully they will improve in this regard.

I rather expect some news quite soon.

Regards

PTH

overgrowth - 10 Oct 2004 01:04 - 1181 of 1892

Eric,

Glad to help.

There seems to be a head of steam building up with potential buyers waiting in the wings at the moment. Because CFP's revenue is reasonably transparent, observers can have a very good idea of what is to come and hence may want to buy in at the earliest opportunity.

The spread seems to be a big inhibiting factor to any significant buying at the moment, if the MMs tighten this next week, then the price will go whizzing up as long termers top up with a few more and traders buy in for a quick gain.

Alternatively, actual news of deals completed should become evident towards the end of this month in my estimation - with the current doubters buying in when they see the proof of the pudding (regardless of spread).

OG

overgrowth - 10 Oct 2004 01:11 - 1182 of 1892

PTH,

500K profit will do very nicely indeed as a substantial "springboard" into 2005 - have to agree about the PR, though I think a lot of their business relies on word of mouth, with them getting plenty of deals though the lawyers etc. that they work with - so they're not used to "singing their own praises".

Cheers

OG

ptholden - 10 Oct 2004 11:01 - 1183 of 1892

Borrowed this from a rival BB, which gives an idea of how our little company are doing. Obviously I don't know what the associtaed revenue is, but it demonstrates that they should be on track for a profitable H2.

Jul Completed 5.5m flotation on behalf of Ragusa Capital plc (USA) on AIM. Appointed NOMAD and corporate broker.

Jul Completed 2.0m flotation on behalf of Smallbone plc (SML) on AIM. Appointed NOMAD and corporate broker.

Jul Completed advising on partnership agreement with HTK of Taiwan for Designer Vision Group plc (DVS).

Aug - Completed advising on acquisition of Arriva Colchester Bus Ops for Tellings Golden Miller Group plc (TGM).

Aug - Completed share placing on behalf of Dinkie Heel plc (DINK).

Sept Completed 1.2m flotation on behalf of Telephone Maintenance Group plc (TEL) on AIM. Appointed NOMAD and corporate broker.

Sept - Completed share placing on behalf of Interactive Digital Solutions plc (IGL).

Oct - Completed advising on acquisition of Classic Coaches Ltd for Tellings Golden Miller Group plc (TGM).

Oct - Completed advising on disposal of CCM Ltd for Fundamental-e Investments plc (FEI).

PTH

EWRobson - 10 Oct 2004 14:09 - 1184 of 1892

ptholden

Many thanks to you and OG for very helpful analysis. We have seen many AIM (and small-cap) companies rising too far in latter part of 2003 only to subside too far because of lack of news (YOO is a good case in point).

Relevant comment in Sunday Times re AIM market: "The remarkable growth in AIM continued through the traditionally quiet summer months,.. adding 91 companies in the third quarter. It now has 943 quoted companies and, according to grant Thornton...,it could be holding more firms than the main market by the first half on next year... In contrast (to the main market) AIM pulled in many more companies, including some from the main market, because of its lighter regulation and the tax incentives it attracts... The companies that joined AIM in the thrid quarter raised 850M, the largest amount since the market was founded in 1995.'

Clearly, CFP is in a lead position to exploit this business, particularly as they are an AIM company themselves. I suspect also that their reticence is in part due to their relationship with other AIM companies; in any case why should they seek to push their own price up when they don't have capital needs (unless they want to make an acquisition - not, I expect, required). The only problem in buying, of course, is what to sell from an upwardly mobile portfolio.

Eric

overgrowth - 10 Oct 2004 15:23 - 1185 of 1892

Eric,

Regarding acquisitions - this was CFP's original plan to grow by acquisition, however they realised that the company was growing organically at fair old pace a couple of years ago and decided continue with that strategy.

They are still open to a "good deal" when it comes to acquisitions, however this is not seen by management as the driving force right now. In their position, should they come across a tasty prospect to snap up, it shouldn't take much persuading for the institutions to finance any placing required.

OG

deadfred - 10 Oct 2004 20:50 - 1186 of 1892

ok boy your on the right track but try this

reverse psychology mostly works when no one notices it

what ???? is dead on about well try this

1)no comment on deals that ppl know are going through(pricks the curious ppl minds)
2)word of mouth always beats advertising imho
3)the news of more ppl needed for work load
4)the comment of no news till the deals done
5)the amazing antics of mm trying every trick in the book to hammer small time investers out of there shares in cfp
6)the obvious back track of mm who were caught out lastime this share broke(lots of egg on face for mm then)they forced sb to make a comment to save there bacon imho
7)the recent news of a web site being up and running(how many of you guys new this before someone on a bb told you)be honest))lol

no imho i think rock and rool sb more power to you for keeping the obvious in the whats happening drawer it baffels the mm big time

me i love topping up

just my opinion so take it as that


bosley - 11 Oct 2004 09:40 - 1187 of 1892

good morning all. very intelligent discussion going on . i think thesaurus will be pleased . he got a bit upset at some jocular remarks made when all was quiet .
anyway , i have been trying to find a year graph of daniel stewart securities, ofex, as an example of what a small brokerage could do . a year ago daniel stewart's price was around the penny mark , its now 6p last time i looked.i think if anyone could find the graph and post it it would be helpful . to the newcomers this is definately one to buy and tuck away.

deadfred - 11 Oct 2004 11:58 - 1188 of 1892

steady bos you might be accussed of rampin m8
thought with this little gem we fellow cfp'ers know you dont need to

bosley - 11 Oct 2004 13:14 - 1189 of 1892

not ramping , ole chum .just offering reassurance to old and new guys. its an impressive chart and seeing as we are near the 1p mark it just shows whats possible.

thesaurus - 11 Oct 2004 14:19 - 1190 of 1892

DISPOSALS REDUCING HOLDING IN COMPANY BELOW 3%



Pursuant to Section 198 of the Companies Act 1985, the Company received
notification on 5 October 2004 that, CFA Capital Group Plc sold 5,000,000 shares
in the Company on 30 September 2004. CFA Capital Group Plc no longer holds an
interest in the Company.



More money nto spend!

bosley - 11 Oct 2004 14:50 - 1191 of 1892

which company?

southwold - 11 Oct 2004 16:58 - 1192 of 1892

Ashdene Group(ash)

deadfred - 11 Oct 2004 17:20 - 1193 of 1892

old news that bos come on old chap i know its getting harder but do keep up
rather
lol

EWRobson - 11 Oct 2004 19:45 - 1194 of 1892

Bought a first tranche today at 0.72p. My analysis, with help from this bb, says that is ridiculously cheap/ good value. Anything at all close to pth and OG projections must see a significant jump in the share price. So, all, get in there at the present price!

Eric

ptholden - 11 Oct 2004 20:24 - 1195 of 1892

Evening Eric old bean,

Welcome onboard, hopefully we will have a profitable experience! I'm just waiting for a cheque to clear through our archaic banking system and I intend to top up probably before the end of the week. Approx another 450,000, which might help to nudge things along a bit!!

Regards

PTH

overgrowth - 11 Oct 2004 20:45 - 1196 of 1892

Evening folks and good to hear you're in Eric.

It still looks as though the MMs are short as deadfred reckons, so even though the candlesticks are showing a "graveyard doji" at close, I suspect that tomorrow will be one of the exceptions where TA doesn't get it's own way and we should see a rise at close (probably not the best news PTH for those of us topping up!).

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