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Update Time: Hong Kong 09:00 London 02:00 New York 21:00



FX Analyst - Pro Commentary - May 6th

Schaff Tutorials - System Alerts





General Market Conditions
Further losses seen for the Dollar yesterday that met targets apart from the British Pound that failed at the lower resistance at 1.8016-20. We feel that in general the cycles are suggesting a bounce for the Dollar around this time frame but our analysis suggests there should be some further losses before the recovery can develop. Thus we continue to err marginally on the downside but do acknowledge the break levels should the cycles have an earlier effect. In general we see potential for the Dollar to reach 1.2245-50 Euro and 1.2655-80 Swissie. The British Pound is rather mixed and may well have reached a high so we would rather look for breaks for the next move here. Against the Japanese Yen we have seen a thorough test of the 108.29 corrective low. Our preference is to see a recovery from here but will need to wait for breaks.



GBPUSD
Price: 1.7900
Day View
Resistance: 1.7920 1.7950 1.7975 1.8015

Support: 1.7860 1.7840 1.7820 1.7795



Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: As suggested a peak seen just short of the 1.8020 target and a move lower from there. We are mixed and see potential for either side to break and the dip this morning appears to favor the downside. Thus to return to a bullish scenario we need to see gains back above 1.7920-50 and once the higher level breaks we should see follow-through towards 1.8045 at least with risk of 1.8145 on a stronger move.



Bearish: While we are mixed, the dip this morning to 1.7888 looks mildly bearish. To be safer on this we would prefer to see a break of 1.7860 which we feel would allow the decline to continue back to 1.7790-00 at least. An aggressive move could take us back to 1.7700-45 quite quickly.





Week View
Resistance: 1.8020 1.8075 1.8145 1.8210

Support: 1.7865 1.7800 1.7730 1.7670



Gains stalled at 1.8016 allowing price to return to test the 4-hour Pivot Cloud support. Note that the reversal came around the apex of the triangle - a classic timing for reversal after a triangle. Schaff Trend Cycle remained at 100 while FXS-RSI oscillated around the overbought line. We have to be a little cautious here and play with breaks.



Bullish: The rally has reached the minimum target at 1.8016-20. To allow further gains to take price higher we need a quick return back above 1.7950 which we feel should then cause a test of 1.8045 at least and after a small pullback we would then look for further gains to 1.8140 at least with 1.8205 also providing good resistance.



Bearish: Having met the minimum target at 1.8016 we need to be a little cautious. Any failure to make further gains today and a break below 1.7860 and then 1.7790 would imply a long sideways consolidation. Break of 1.7790 would return price quickly to 1.7700 and possibly 1.7660-85. However, around this area we should see support developing.

Don't worry, hodgins. When you're staring down the barrel at a 200 pip profit later on, those odd 20 or 30 pips will be neither here nor there.

She hopes.

:o)

Well it never took out my opening short left over night at 1.7982
So decided to short at 1.7950 this am

Do we have Euro and GB rate decissions today at 12?

Morning ALL
UK 12.00 ECB 12.45

do i take it cable will go sideways till 12 and if a 1/4 rise dive but 1/2 will send it skywards

Thats my take on things

1/2% requires balls on the part of the MPC
and inflation does not warrant it

Hilary you in your 'no brainer' trade yet?

ok off for beans on toast b4 the action starts

foale,

Since shortly after 7 this morning. Been out this morning and a little surprised that it's rallied back as much as it has.

UK rates up 0.25%

0.25

opened and closed my short pretty quickly..

Short GBP @ 30

Now its calmed down a bit.

this is a tough one to call...but starting to look like a long
in my book...wiht a confirmation over 1.7950

Agreed foale ... it's tough to call now. I think it needs to be left for an hour or two now.

Well damp squib day today

My stop is at 1.8030 I think its short because of the 30day/Hour Chart.

If it breaks long today then I think we could see $2/1 this year.

On another note I could do with some help on my trading style. My problem is sticking with a system/strategy. I keep choping and changing my strategy which is not so much a downfall as limiting my profits. Anyone have any advice on devloping a strategy or some links on helping me with that sort of thing. Any advice or websites would be really apreciated.

Fwiw, I think that Cable is still a short.

Earlier my reasoning was on the basis that it had broken the rising support of the uptrend and it had put a high in place shortly after 7am this morning (this was my short stop loss) which was lower than the 18022 high of yesterday. It's now clear that the 7am "high" wasn't actually a high and the early price action was just background noise on the way to a high.

If it fails before 18022, I'll stick to my guns and maintain that it's still a short. If it breaks to a fresh high, then I'll acknowledge that my system has failed me this once and I'll give it more time for the chart to develop further and see what it looks like then

your thoughts and reasoning are always worth a lot,
however........

i don't profess to have the same degree of technical skills or acumen as
many on this thread possess, and my trading style is more based on swings, sentiment,& news. i often fit into the contrarian mould, and am beggining to think this moment in time is one such case.

cable is cheap in my opinion, and fair value is i estimate 182.00
it is currently 50 pips higher than pre interest rise, and the predicted fall
(by some )on the .25% increase did not materialise. indeed it immediately rose by 50 pips. sometimes 'passion' can work as well as any 'chart', and as i am
well reknowned in this area (!), think i may offer a wager that we shall see
182.00 before we see 177.00. (i can't remember if from our last little bet i owe you, or vice-versa) you on girl ?