cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
BigTed
- 21 Feb 2008 11:51
- 1186 of 21973
This, i already know... see, we shall...
required field
- 21 Feb 2008 11:55
- 1187 of 21973
Big Ted, if you are right (heavens forbid), there will be another sell off, (I hope not as I always miss it).
stroreysj
- 21 Feb 2008 12:08
- 1188 of 21973
It was much easier to short oil last time at $100 as it was bid up on speculation without fundamentals. Not sure that is the case now and more likely to head toward 110 before it heads south on an 8 lane motorway. Shorted Rio at 5300 and have been covering long ever since. While the commodity markets are all over the place Commodity prices will keep rising as a hedge
required field
- 21 Feb 2008 12:11
- 1189 of 21973
If it is a steady small climb up just above $105, it might stay there and stabilize...the jumps up to $110 and more could trigger massive shorting...!
BigTed
- 21 Feb 2008 12:13
- 1190 of 21973
I should stress, oil is only ever going upwards long term, just feel that with the US economy slowing it is possible demand will reduce slightly, current rise is partly down to supply scare caused by tensions between Exxon and Venezuela...
moneyplus
- 21 Feb 2008 12:15
- 1191 of 21973
I've been looking at ways of learning about spreadbetting--the costs vary widely. CMC offer a free dvd and free day worth 200 to learn while Robbie Burns The Naked Trader is offering a day in April for around 500. Have any of you done these day courses or did you just take the plunge and learn by your mistakes??
cynic
- 21 Feb 2008 12:18
- 1192 of 21973
more importantly ..... the indices - FTSE and Dow ..... both are currently at important and potential resistance levels .... FTSE is nudging through 600 while Dow is indicated to open just below 12500, a point where it has stalled a couple of times previously.
my own positions continue to run, but have put in sensible stops so that at worst i will still pocket a decent profit
required field
- 21 Feb 2008 12:26
- 1193 of 21973
Moneyplus...made a lot...lost a lot...still learning...,but possibly more cautious now...!, prefer shares and cfd's to betspreads when if you get stuck the expiry date is upon you, but with cfd's as long as you are not in a very difficult situation you can keep on going...with oil company's : don't do a cfd or bet spread with just the result depending on one well..look for a company that's going to drill a whole succession of wells..if one goes pearshaped there's always the next one..but be cautious.
explosive
- 21 Feb 2008 12:40
- 1194 of 21973
Not true, don't forget the futures markets where profit/loss is left rolling until the future closes, sure you have to cover your margins though..
BigTed
- 21 Feb 2008 12:43
- 1195 of 21973
It can all get very confusing, i know... i've just been down the shops to buy some long shorts...
explosive
- 21 Feb 2008 13:03
- 1196 of 21973
Still holding my short plays, considering another on the FTSE if I can get it on above 6000..
cynic
- 21 Feb 2008 13:04
- 1197 of 21973
FTSE will prob follow Dow, so that is where you need to watch, though FTSE is dominated by miners, oilies and financials
BigTed
- 21 Feb 2008 13:08
- 1198 of 21973
A long on the mining sector would have been a great move last month, TDW showing from 19500 and now currently 26250 points... wow!
halifax
- 21 Feb 2008 13:38
- 1199 of 21973
CNBC interviewed Boon Pickens a few moments ago he said he has shorted oil and gas and forecasts oil to fall b$15 per barrel in the second quarter although he anticipates price recovery in the second half of the year.
BigTed
- 21 Feb 2008 13:54
- 1200 of 21973
I guess he must be nuts too...! I only talked about it...!
halifax
- 21 Feb 2008 14:02
- 1201 of 21973
Apparently the US consumes 25% of global oil production but has only 5% of world population according to Boon Pickens. A slow down in the US economy will lead to a significant reduction in demand for oil.
moneyplus
- 21 Feb 2008 14:12
- 1202 of 21973
Thanks rf. The reason I'm looking at spreadbets is because I'm reluctant to get landed with too much Cgt.
cynic
- 21 Feb 2008 16:25
- 1203 of 21973
Dow failed both the 12500 and 12465 tests, so have shorted at 12421 ... stop pro tem at 15525 and limit 12275
talkinhg of shorts .... SOLA doing exactly what i hoped at last
explosive
- 21 Feb 2008 17:37
- 1204 of 21973
Halifax - Remember though OPEC have reduced supply before to keep prices high, they have also refused to increase supply to reduce the cost of oil... Sure a slowdown in the US economy will reduce demand there but this reduction in demand is easily taken up by other third world countries increasing demand. Look at China and Japan usage and growth...
required field
- 21 Feb 2008 17:39
- 1205 of 21973
With spreadbets moneyplus you must be really sure that the one you're picking is going to come right, too many times my choices have failed to live up to expectations...but with cfd's..you can hang on a little longer (no expiry date) and many a time they come right in the end !