Another newcomer to the main market...anybody any idea what the production figures are ?

Heritage might turn the first offer down.

my guess would be closer to 10 than 8, but that is pure greed and without true logic ...... however, there is no denying that HOIL has some first-class assets both in quality and quantum which will be of considerable interest to a number of large fish ..... unless the first offer comes in at a k/o price, a bid battle could esily ensue

but we shall just have to wait and see as there is no trading to be done

There has been trading in Cananda funnily enough, closed at 6.59 if my info is correct.

Tony Buckingham is just as likely to turn down any silly offer that does not reflect true value, he is the majority shareholder and has done it a few times before.

My guess is well north of 10.



1.00 CAD = 0.551716 GBP

Well Im hoping you chaps are right.

Got a few dogs in the portfolio today.

One for you to chew on cyners......

Excellent post on i.i.i by JK Silverstone. Hanson Westhouse have a valuation of 890p - excluding any takeover premium:

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3ANMX0530.L&threshold=0&pageno=3&it=li

"Our note on Heritage Oil has been overtaken by events. Whilst we intended to reiterate our BUY recommendation, events today, when the company asked for its shares to be suspended due to discussions with a third party regarding a possible reverse takeover, have made a Buy un-actionable.

Yet there are no guarantees regarding the outcome of current discussions, as such we believe there is merit in releasing our note illustrating the value we believe resides within Heritage and which will still be of interest to potential buyers of the company in the weeks ahead as events unfold.

Key Financial data
Year Revenue Operating Income EPS
2007 $3.7m -$49.6m -$0.16
2008 $5.1m -$37.6m -$0.37
2009E $8.4m -$46.4m -$0.15
2010E $153.5m $4.8m $0.02
Market Cap 1,482m EV/Bbl1 22.74

Heritage produced a mere 450 barrels of oil per day last year and yet the market cap stood at nearly 1.5bn prior to the suspension of shares on 3 June. As the table above suggests, this value is not based on current operational status, rather it is the huge potential upside in Uganda and the
Kurdistan Region of Iraq. On a sum of the parts valuation of the groups asset base, we value Heritage at 890p per share.

Heritage has enjoyed exceptional success in drilling campaigns in Uganda and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. So much so, that we anticipate the groups interests will yield implied recoverable reserves in excess of 2 billion barrels.

In our view, these resources will prove to be too enticing for either a national oil company or an international oil company (IOC) to resist. While yesterdays events have not taken the exact shape we anticipated, corporate activity involving Heritage was in our view inevitable given a litany of reasons not least of which are:
the move away from exploration to capital intensive development,
a track record of realising value through asset sales,
the large scale of its discoveries and
the need for IOCs to replace resources when access to new exploration areas is limited.

Although Heritages share price has been a strong performer in 2009, we believe that there is significant additional upside. What follows is our analysis to arrive at this conclusion and our target sum of the parts valuation of 890p per share. This does not include any premium in the event of a still possible corporate takeover, which we would expect
to be significant.
.....

Conclusion

In all, the rationale behind a takeover is compelling but that does not necessarily mean that one will happen. The problem for any buyer, in our view, will be to offer a price that Heritage would find acceptable.

The bottom line is Heritage can afford to wait. Funds on hand adequately support financial commitments over the next twelve months. Subsequent to this period, we believe that Heritage would have little difficulty in raising additional funding should the need arise.

Yet the longer a buyer takes to arrive the more time Heritage has to drill and evaluate its growing volume of data in relation to existing asset discoveries. This will in our view inevitably lead to resources being
upgraded and assigned a higher valuation per barrel as well as increasing the total amount of resources a potential buyer will need to factor into its acquisition price. As such, Heritage will clearly feel very confident should talks leading to a takeover begin.

Interested parties will no doubt be aware of this dynamic, which makes the likelihood of a substantial premium in our view a very high probability as well as the need to act quickly. By acting now, a potential buyer will at least benefit from residual weakness in the sector driven by short term oil price weakness."

now go post haste to DGO thread!

ok .... so here's some more light on this subject courtesy of Reuters ...... hmm! make of it what you will ......

* Genel Enerji in merger talks with Heritage Oil
* Focus on Kurdish oil field
(Reuters) - Unlisted Turkish Energy company Genel Enerji is the unnamed party in merger talks with British oil explorer Heritage Oil , sources close to the situation said on Thursday.

HOIL has two main assets - stakes in oil blocks in Uganda and Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region where discoveries, potentially containing billions of barrels of oil, have been made.

The tie-up talks with Genel Enerji, which is part of the Cukurova Group, one of Turkey's largest industrial conglomerates, are centered on Heritage's Miran field in Kurdistan, the sources said .... "Iraq is the focus," one source said.

Rather than buy out Heritage shareholders, Genel would contribute assets to the enlarged entity, one of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said.

The talks could prompt a bidding battle for Heritage but industry sources said there was a limited field of potential acquirers.

The government in Baghdad has described the oil deals signed by the Kurdish Regional Government as illegal and anyone investing there is effectively blocked from investing in the rest of Iraq.

Chinese state-owned oil companies which have been major buyers of oil assets internationally in recent years, are actively bidding for contracts in Iraq, as are the Western oil majors, making it unlikely they will shift their focus to Kurdistan.

Privately-owned French oil company Perenco, whose name has been linked with Heritage in the press, is not interested in buying the company, industry sources said.

Heritage's shares have soared in recent months, on the back of a major oil find at Miran ..... However, some industry executives believe investors have become too optimistic about Miran given the estimate of oil in place of up to 4.2 billion barrels was based on the results of just one well.

Times quote:
TURKISH GROUP IS HERITAGE TIE-UP TARGET

Turkey's Genel Enerji has been revealed as the unnamed company engaged in merger negotiations with Heritage Oil. Ever since the London-listed group announced on Wednesday it was in talks about a merger that was to be treated as a reverse takeover, speculation on the possible partner has been rife. According to the source close to the discussions, Genel would contribute assets to the enlarged entity rather than buying shareholders out. The person added that if a deal is completed, it could be announced by the middle of next week.

provided i make a decent profit, i am not much fussed ..... one could have argued that IEC were sold too cheap, but certainly ONGC reckoned they had to pay too much

10% profit? go on cynic and hold a share for a whole week, lol

dont have this in all seriousness......what happens now with it........do they come back relisted at much higher price

i don't know ... we'll just have to wait and see

Trading was resumed on TSX yesterday at 12:47. It closed at C$12.28 = 692p .

http://www.stockhouse.com/tools/?page=%2FfinancialTools%2Fsn...


higher higher higher higher..... you little barsteward.

very good article in Sunday Times on this proposed merger ..... if it actually happens, though there is no reason why it should not, then "The tie up would put the combined group at the forefront of one of the world's last undeveloped oil regions ....... increase production from today's 100k bopd to 1m bopd by 2012".

lets hope us HOIL holders are rewarded as a result on the combined assets and the increased cash input and that there is no dilution...we don't want to get shafted on this one!

huge and important RNS just out - see Newswatch

Confusion reigning at the moment but its as SB called it here in this post...



sportbilly1976 - 9 Jun'09 - 07:48 - 4353 of 4379


before:

mkt cap 1.5bln, shares in issue: 257mln - share price 5.83

now;

mkt cap 3.7bln, shares in issue: 520mln - share price 7.11

very simplistic, but this is where it should come back... :-))

7.11p per share on relisting.

The stock is trading at the mo at a big discount but that wont last long after the conference call this morning.

certainly a very muted response at the moment, but it all looks pretty complex to me, but then i'm a simpleton ...... would certainly expect some decent press/analyst coverage in next 48 hours, and cannot imagine it will be less than positive

Conference call in next hour cyners, should sort it.

Not sure when it goes into FTSE 100 though..... thats the biggy with trackers having to buy.

i suspect next rotation is still a couple of months away

now need DGO and PCI to get their running shoes on!