| Home | Log In | Register | Our Services | My Account | Contact | Help |
You are NOT currently logged in
Traders Thread 22nd June 2004 (CROC)
Martini
- 21 Jun 2004 21:57
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
| |
|
S&P Futures |
||||||||||
|
|
 |
Calendar: United Kingdom |  |
United States |  |
Europe & World |
| Interims DGC : Dobbies Garden Centres OMG : OMG Finals ATK : Atkins WS GLO : Glotel HLMA : Halma ITH : ITIS Holdings TRB : Tribal GroupAGM / EGM ELX : El Oro & Exploration & Co ISU : Ivory & Sime UK Smaller Co's PAP : Paddy Power Economics No UK data scheduled | Company3Com Corp COMS ADE Corporation ADEX Christopher & Banks CBK CKE Restaurants CKR Commercial Metals Company CMC Darden Restaurants DRI FSI International FSII Goldman Sachs GS GTECH Holdings Corp. GTK H.B. Fuller Company FUL Intraware ITRA Lindsay Manufacturing LNN MTI Technology Corporation MTIC OMNOVA Solutions OMN Steelcase Inc. SCS Stride Rite Corporation SRR The Kroger Co. KR Economic 23.30 BST ABC Consumer confience June prev -20 | Economic FRA: 07.45 Household Consumption (May) Estimate -0.4% ITL: 08.30 Consumer Confidence (June) Estimate 97.8 GER: 10.00 ZEW Expectations Balance (June) Estimate47.5 | |||
zarif
- 22 Jun 2004 12:05
- 12 of 16
Tom Hougards email fot todays analysis.
Good morning,
I got the downside I was looking for in the NASDAQ. Stops are in. I still got today as a down day as well, but I am wary that there was a spill-over from the cycle and I got most of the downside yesterday. I still would like to see 1420 in the NASDAQ and will run the position. The problem (there are always problems in the market and things to watch out for J ) I have is the month-end pattern. We have 7 days left of the month and the quarter. In this time period we tend to see the market make an effort to push higher to mark up Wall Streets portfolios. It is common practise and something you should be aware of.
Technically I would say to you that as long as the market is below 1142 but above 1132 in the SP500 the market is neutral and is just market time. A move above is bullish and a move below is bearish. Yesterday we tried for the 1128 but held. You may recall that the 1128 was the support area from the decline earlier in the month, funnily enough also on a Monday!!
1132 will now be new resistance I would expect traders come in and defend the 1128 today. I doubt very much anyone is interested in lower prices but if it does trade lower short positions are required and the first target is 1122 and then 1108.
The key will be the financials like banks and brokers. Many of them are reporting shortly, and most of them have had sizeable declines since the February highs. I would watch this group closely. You should also pay attention to the old generals like GE and MSFT. When the Dow drops 80 points intra-day and those two still hold up for the day, it is a sign of strength.
So the conclusion is unfortunately a mixed bag. I am short NASDAQ. I suspect that the SP500 will not attract any major selling until we are below 1128. There is very little to add.
IBM is a very interesting stock to follow. It tracks the big indices very well and has beautiful patterns and cycles. IBM is in a make-or-break situation. The blue line shows that IBM traded above this price level of $90 for 3 years. In April 2002 IBM broke $90 in a gap down which took 94 weeks to fill. The challenge is always to trade what you see and not what you think. It is even better to trade with the idea that you have to second-guess what they are thinking. In this case they are the big funds. IBM is a real bell weather and tracks the economic cycle well. I have included the volume figures for the chart as well. We are right at the critical $89/90 price level. The chart pattern is bullish but the volume is telling a different story. It points out that the last years rally has been on declining volume. That is not a bullish sign but you got to give the pattern the benefit of the doubt. If the latter part of the year is bullish I think IBM will perform well and regain $100. Use the $89 as a pivot. Have you ever heard the saying: Dont short a dull market? That is my concern here. We are simply doing nothing because no one really wants to sell and everyone is holding out for the summer rally.
Well, you are prepared price wise. Just follow the levels given in the SP500 and use prudent stops.
Tom
Good morning,
I got the downside I was looking for in the NASDAQ. Stops are in. I still got today as a down day as well, but I am wary that there was a spill-over from the cycle and I got most of the downside yesterday. I still would like to see 1420 in the NASDAQ and will run the position. The problem (there are always problems in the market and things to watch out for J ) I have is the month-end pattern. We have 7 days left of the month and the quarter. In this time period we tend to see the market make an effort to push higher to mark up Wall Streets portfolios. It is common practise and something you should be aware of.
Technically I would say to you that as long as the market is below 1142 but above 1132 in the SP500 the market is neutral and is just market time. A move above is bullish and a move below is bearish. Yesterday we tried for the 1128 but held. You may recall that the 1128 was the support area from the decline earlier in the month, funnily enough also on a Monday!!
1132 will now be new resistance I would expect traders come in and defend the 1128 today. I doubt very much anyone is interested in lower prices but if it does trade lower short positions are required and the first target is 1122 and then 1108.
The key will be the financials like banks and brokers. Many of them are reporting shortly, and most of them have had sizeable declines since the February highs. I would watch this group closely. You should also pay attention to the old generals like GE and MSFT. When the Dow drops 80 points intra-day and those two still hold up for the day, it is a sign of strength.
So the conclusion is unfortunately a mixed bag. I am short NASDAQ. I suspect that the SP500 will not attract any major selling until we are below 1128. There is very little to add.
IBM is a very interesting stock to follow. It tracks the big indices very well and has beautiful patterns and cycles. IBM is in a make-or-break situation. The blue line shows that IBM traded above this price level of $90 for 3 years. In April 2002 IBM broke $90 in a gap down which took 94 weeks to fill. The challenge is always to trade what you see and not what you think. It is even better to trade with the idea that you have to second-guess what they are thinking. In this case they are the big funds. IBM is a real bell weather and tracks the economic cycle well. I have included the volume figures for the chart as well. We are right at the critical $89/90 price level. The chart pattern is bullish but the volume is telling a different story. It points out that the last years rally has been on declining volume. That is not a bullish sign but you got to give the pattern the benefit of the doubt. If the latter part of the year is bullish I think IBM will perform well and regain $100. Use the $89 as a pivot. Have you ever heard the saying: Dont short a dull market? That is my concern here. We are simply doing nothing because no one really wants to sell and everyone is holding out for the summer rally.
Well, you are prepared price wise. Just follow the levels given in the SP500 and use prudent stops.
Tom
Melnibone - 22 Jun 2004 13:08 - 13 of 16
Took the OOM profit on that last bounce.
Just over 1% profit in a few hours will do in these markets.
I'll take anything I can get.
Waiting for US direction now.
Melnibone.
Just over 1% profit in a few hours will do in these markets.
I'll take anything I can get.
Waiting for US direction now.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Jun 2004 13:13 - 14 of 16
Just read your TomH. post Zarif.
He's looking at exactly the same levels I quoted this morning.
That would indicate that the majority of traders are looking
to trade the same levels.
God forbid that we end up with a 4 point trading range on the
S&P this afternoon with the odd point foray either side of it.
That really would turn me comatose.
Melnibone.
He's looking at exactly the same levels I quoted this morning.
That would indicate that the majority of traders are looking
to trade the same levels.
God forbid that we end up with a 4 point trading range on the
S&P this afternoon with the odd point foray either side of it.
That really would turn me comatose.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Jun 2004 15:07 - 15 of 16
Half an hour gone and the S&P is stuck bang in the middle
of the 1128/1132 range after a brief foray to test the 1128
support.
Yawn.
Melnibone.
of the 1128/1132 range after a brief foray to test the 1128
support.
Yawn.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Jun 2004 16:10 - 16 of 16
RBS down on support.
This is the level it dropped down to when it announced it's
latest proposed purchase and a share issue to help pay for it.
Melnibone.
- Page:
- 1
| About MoneyAM | Ts and Cs | Privacy Policy | Investment Warning | Content Standards | Corporate Solutions | Advertise With Us | Site Map | © 2025 MoneyAM |
Register now for FREE
Share Prices,
Stock Quotes,
Charts, Bulletin Boards, Indices, Watchlists, Portfolio, Market News, Research
or see our Premium Services including Level 2, Terminal and much more.
Follow us on Twitter