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Traders Thread Tuesday 13th July 2004 (CROC)     

Martini - 12 Jul 2004 21:41

Douggie - 13 Jul 2004 10:08 - 12 of 26

mornin all

Druid2 - 13 Jul 2004 10:46 - 13 of 26

dd - Went to the Llangollen International Eisteddfod last year but did not go this year. Certainly worth a visit.

Melnibone - 13 Jul 2004 10:46 - 14 of 26

graph.php?size=Big&startDate=13%2F01%2F0

Morning all.
Looks like low volume messing about again.

To stay in the range we need to close above 4300. Below 4300 will start
to look Bearish.

To make this a low in the current range we need to close above 4400 and
start to move on to explore the top of the range again.

S&P will guide us which will be influenced by the Nasdaq.
S&P needs to hold above 1100 or it will explore the lows circa 1070 and
take the Ftse below 4300. Unless the S&P breaks through the 1119/1121
area and heads towards the 1128/1132 resistance I can't see the Ftse getting
above 4400.

Ndx needs to hold 1420 and the Composite 1900 to keep us in the range.
Only start to feel Bullish if they break above 1480/2000 respectively.
With the SOX in a downtrend and the semi-conductor sector having
been downgraded to sell by the Brokers, I doubt this will happen
without some positive geo-political news or some blow out earnings.
In-line earnings won't be good enough. That's already more than priced
in.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 13 Jul 2004 10:54 - 15 of 26

graph.php?size=Big&startDate=13%2F01%2F0

GSK exploring the March lows.
IMHO, if the Ftse tests/breaks 4300 this will cause GSK to break these lows
and go to test the 1000p target I've been mentioning for the past few
months.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 13 Jul 2004 11:02 - 16 of 26

graph.php?size=Big&startDate=13%2F07%2F0

AVZ now approaching the March 2003 lows as I pointed out last December.
Even though the Brokers managed to talk it back up above 400p last
Christmas so they could exit their positions.(How do they sleep at night?)

Melnibone.

Big Al - 13 Jul 2004 11:17 - 17 of 26

JKX has broken up on a decent bit of news this morning.

sw - you will have mail at some point! ;-)

daves dazzlers - 13 Jul 2004 12:39 - 18 of 26

druid,to right.

Velocity - 13 Jul 2004 13:14 - 19 of 26

23.50 could be key.....

graph.php?startDate=07%2F07%2F04&period=

Fundamentalist - 13 Jul 2004 13:40 - 20 of 26

Melnibone

nice to see you still watching GSK. have closed my short (maybe a little early) and am looking for an entry point for a long. Any support around 1050p will be a signal for me to start buying, if it reachs 1000p and holds then im piling in!

Big Al - 13 Jul 2004 14:29 - 21 of 26

sw - mail sent.

seawallwalker - 13 Jul 2004 14:50 - 22 of 26

Got it thanks.

Had to do a bit of maintenence because of attempted mail hijack.

Sorted out now.

Velocity - 13 Jul 2004 14:56 - 23 of 26

long azn

seawallwalker - 13 Jul 2004 14:59 - 24 of 26

4M buys in the last half hour for RTO.

Not much before that.

Hmmmmmmm...............

and not much since

david 2000 - 13 Jul 2004 15:27 - 25 of 26

Hi Melinbone. Heard alot of good things about you. Would appreciate your comments on Morrisons. My thoughts are on the chart.

MRW3yr.gif

Melnibone - 13 Jul 2004 15:52 - 26 of 26

graph.php?size=Big&movingAverageString=%

Hi David2000,
Thanks for your comment, but I'm not a guru. :-)

Your weekly chart looks to have captured most things to me. Prior
to buying Safeway it basically traded in a sideways range.
It was mainly a Northern company, but now it's competing in the
Southern heartlands and will have teething troubles integrating
and bedding down the Safeway aquisition. The pricing/margin squeeze
from Tesco/Asda/Sainsburys will exacebate these teething problems,
IMHO.

As you indicate, 180p would seem to be the line in the sand where it
becomes decision time to buy or sell.
If it holds, then as you can see on my shorter term daily chart, it has
a huge gap to fill, at leisure, before it meets any selling pressure
from folk who were left trapped on the drop open.

Don't know if any of that helps, but that's my initial take on the
situation.

Melnibone.
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