hawick
- 21 Jul 2004 19:45
............Too good to be true? Normally, but NOT in this case! The reason it has been ignored is that, despite the arrival of competitive market makers, its ofex listing has meant it has escaped everyone's radar.
Most brokers are either now dealing ofex or will be in the next three months or so, so you are, or are about to be, in a position to take advantage of an amazing bargain!
GSC Property, Commercial property share on Ofex, but with competitive mms now on board, has just delivered a phenomenal (no exaggeration) profit on a single transaction.
For those not familiar, the company trades in renting out commercial property to top 350 UK companies and government departments. The shares are 88.5p mid and the nav WAS 121p at results. Market cap 8.85 million. Tasty dividend of 3.2p. Nicely profitable. At last results had 56 million assets against 25 year fixed repayments of 44 million.
Yesterday the company announced that the Safeway/Morrison store they bought for 8.8 million last year has been sold for 14.8 million, (book value 11 million). This one deal after tax adds about 28p per share to the nav. A 6 million profit for a 9 million market cap company!
Stunning, truly stunning! While such a deal would make only a ripple for the likes of British Land, in this case it adds nearly 25% to the nav.
That is huge, taking the nav to c149p. So the shares trade some 40% below nav (and shares would need to rise 65% to match that).
A lot of private companies have been taken over recently in this sector and any bid would have to be in excess, comfortably, of 150p imho, to match the newly revised nav and the apparently modest book values of their properties.
The beauty of the business model is in its simplicity, yet astonishing effectiveness. The CEO said with the announcement: "Our policy of buying properties for rent and identifying below market rentals, whilst still covering all our interest costs is beginning to pay dividends."
Quite an understatement!!!
Commercial property should not be confused with domestic housing btw, imho, little correlation between the two, commercial is in an under supply situation, due to green field and planning difficulties squeezing prices higher, but if you disagree then this stock isn't for you.
At 90p to buy, an amazing long term bargain, I can already see the dividend (currently a decent 3.2p) surging next year after this huge 6 million boost!
Got a nice stake early on, topped up fairly recently and will now leave in my pension policy and collect some very tasty dividends! If this deal is anything to go by, the other book values are likely to be modest too.
Not my favourite site, but a Buy recommendation btw from Unquoted Analyst, part of the T1PS team.
http://www.unquoted-analyst.co.uk/article.asp?id=100348
and for announcment details check last 30 days news at www.ofex.com
hawick
- 21 Oct 2004 14:14
- 12 of 15
Hi John, it does remain tight, but also looks like the liquidity is steadily improving, perhaps helped by the arrival of competitive mms on Ofex. In recent days directors made 20k available to the market which were snapped up and now it looks today as though they may have been ear-bashed for another 20k as two more buys of 10k have come in this morning.
It remains beautifully under-researched (by that I mean it remains a bargain because people don't realise the impact of the recent post balance sheet deals etc, so the shares remain undervalued) and the Safeway deal won't be shown in the figures until the spring, hence most are not aware of the sharp rise in nav. The figure quoted to UQ-A in August (well after first half numbers) was around 200p nav.
I wonder from recent trading (pure speculation) whether someone is building a bit of a stake with all these 10k buys coming in. Can't say i blame them! It does, John, remain a long term play - don't expect to make a fortune with short term trades on it.
Anyone btw who doesn't trust ofex should look at Safeland (SAF) which at 55.5p is another GSC in the making. Recent trading is bullish and buybacks (at 60p, thus above current share price) mean the nav is over 100p and rising. Last year showed a small loss but now they have turned that around , so you are getting a near 50% discount to nav, virtually unheard of, particularly when the nav is actually going up!
8 Ball
- 22 Oct 2004 20:56
- 13 of 15
Glad you held on to SAF.
You have had a rather long a dull wait, looking good following the buy back.
hawick
- 24 Feb 2005 12:47
- 14 of 15
Time to bring up an update on GSC again.
Now 138.5p, all time high, but even now trading some 30% below indicative nav, while the sector is trading close to, or in some cases above nav. It will never be an overnight wondert stock but for long term value and growth is a quite superb investment.
But the real investment case is far stronger than appears from bare numbers. Yesterday's announcement of a purchase of a hotel in Plymouth may be hardly exhilarating, entirely from cash, though shows management ambition to move into ownership and brings a guaranteed 11% annually on the investment, though expected to be near 25%.
I have held stakes in literally hundreds of companies over the years and never (no exaggeration) have I come across a more single minded and successful management. They have doubled nav in just over a year, and i can see over the next two or three years the nav touching 500p, or even higher. Every deal they do has new attractions and they recognize exceptional growth prospects with incredible regularity.
Strong buy.
hawick
- 26 Apr 2005 10:12
- 15 of 15
Originally suggested in this thread at 90p (and in my earlier one at 65.5p) GSC share price now 191p and with results set to confirm the massive boost to nav next month, as well as a dividend hike and a second divvy in the autumn, now is a great time to get involved.