Up a touch when taking the divi out of the equation.

Not worth taking any notice really of the price today, easier
to wait for it to stabilise again and there isn't much doing
well today anyway, ex-div or not.

If you won't cattles to break out, leave the gate open.

Morning Aldwickk!
;>)

Down again today yet there doesnt seem to have been any company specific bad news for CTT whatsoever the accounting changes will affect how earnings are recorded, but the 18 March webcast of the full year figures (available at www.cattles.co.uk) was very upbeat, and the figures seemed impressive- real earnings are still heading in very much the right direction.

It seems to me that almost any news is taken with the worst possible outlook the good thing is that this creates a buying opportunity I suppose and I added to my holding yesterday, and would be happy to do again if this downwards trend continues, because in the long term, CTT looks like a sound investment (good yield, well covered, low PE etc.)

Other than the accounting change which knocked the price last month, in February UBS downgraded CTT from buy to neutral and the price fell 12 to 397 at the very same time though UBS said that even though they could not recommend CTT as a buy, they were UPGRADING the price target from 435 to 460 another example of the bad news winning out.

And the previous month, Investors Chronicle had CTT as a buy and a week later we were at 416 that seemed quickly forgotten.

The point I am making is that this recent weakness doesnt seem to be justified (other than the fact that the price is always right, since if it were obviously cheap, buyers would force the price higher)

Apparently Barclays hold nearly 15% of CTT last summer HSBC were rumoured to be looking at a bid (CTT denied it) and of course HSBC bought Household for 9 billion in the US in 2002 (and paid a 30% premium over the pre-bid share price) which already owns HFC and Beneficial in the UK. London Scottish Bank is similar to CTT in terms of business, but a fifth of the size, and probably not a target.

More than once this year various brokers have recommended switching from Provident Financial into Cattles, and CTTs PE ratio is a good 20% cheaper than PFGs. Going forward I think that sitting tight makes sense, because right now, I cant see any reason why I would want to trade CTT any other way than to buy more. Either the market will alter its view as CTT continues to perform, or perhaps a Bank will make a move..

DYOR (Ive done mine.)

Well said jone3621 - my sentiments entirely. Seems to have dropped further than justified recently & expect to see this tick up in the next few weeks.

Ditto..
:>)

London Scottish and Prov. Financial are also down, guess it's
a temporary 'down on the sub-primes' period!

Well I can't say I'm surprised that ctt are up today - I posted in detail on 8 April about the recent news, and how it has been reported - we know that the accounting changes will affect how earnings are reported, but actual earnings growth seems likely to continue.

Given January's Investors Chronicle 'buy' recommendation, UBS raising the price target from 435 to 460 in February, the still low PE, and well covered dividend - and no company specific bad news - there does come a point when buyers will step in.

I do understand the logic of waiting for the price to turn before taking a long position, but taking a longer term stance, I prefer to take a stance and stick with it until the story changes.

In fact given that before the 'accounting news story' these were happy in the mid 370's only four weeks ago - whilst supply and demand will always move the price one way or another, what's actaully caused this company to be less attractive as an investment??

Maybe nothing - we shall see....

Is this a chance for a top up, or time to get out? Excellent yield and PER, anyone know why these has been hit so hard today?

You're not alone in trying to find a reason, so far drawn a blank.
You must decide if it's a good time to top up - it all depends on your
current holding, what your break-even is, what you want to achieve and
how long you are looking to hold etc etc.

Thanks Stockbunny, I was thinking initially of buying some FP. to pair up with my CTT holding. I think FP will eventually be taken over in a life industry consolidation. It too has a good yield and low PER in the meantime. I think I will go with the latter.

CTT is regaining ground today :>)

Why no "fundamental Data" . . . . ?
The SP is about the same as Sept2005, when the Posts stopped.

I believe that Prov. Finance PFG is similar . . . . but which is the "better-value".. . ?
( Not FP. )

PFG and CTT are both in the "sub-prime market" - although it seems their risk-taking is minimal and NOT to be confused with the US-sub-prime.

Cattles raises it's cash from corporate bonds, which does not seem to cause concern in the markets, so it doesn't really fall in the same category as the high street banks.
Consumer credit accounts for approx 90% of their loan book of which only approx 7% is bad debt. They are running a tight ship, imo & should benefit from the withdrawal of the banks from this sector. However, the sp is cyclical & looking at the 5 year chart you need to pick your entry & exit points carefully.

As always the market seems over pessimistic, and find the present mark down with CTT surprising, it seems to be falling faster than the banks at the moment.
I checked back at the charts and noticed that the 2003 low was 238, which if reached again would put them on a yield of 8.5%.

Too tempting for me at that price.

Spitfire dont forget interest rates are likely to decline and bad debts likely to rise.

This is true, but I wonder at what point in the falling price the risk reward is worth looking at.

re checked the charts on cattles, and found the 1998 low was 200p, 2000 low was 200p, 2001 low was 210p and 2003 low was 230p. Which hopefully will put a floor on the possible fall this time.

Brought this morning at 238, and will hold for a recovery.

Looking at the chart, the sp generally recovers up to the divi date in mid march, but you would want to be out of CTT soon after that date.
With sub-prime worries this year though, history may not repeat itself.

I see what you mean, just looked back 3 years and it fell each time after div date, but as you say this year may be different.