long ARM 103 s/l on

long BLND 804.75 s/l on

long MNKS 185.25 s/l on

OUTLOOK - UK data in coming week to show more evidence of slowdown in activity

LONDON (AFX) - In a week set to be dominated by the government's pre-budget report, UK data will likely fade into the background although ample evidence of a continued slowdown in activity is expected.
The week starts off with data for October consumer credit and mortgage lending. Both are predicted to show further drops in pace as record levels of debt and the interest rate hikes take their toll.
John Butler at HSBC expects the number of mortgage approvals to slump to lows not seen since 1998.
"That is arguably a return to more 'normal' levels rather than a collapse," he said.
Analysts cited data from the likes of the British Bankers Association, Building Societies Association and Council of Mortgage Lenders for their assessment.
"Indeed, the downward momentum could gather pace now that house prices have fallen and even the Bank of England has forecast further modest falls," analysts at Capital Economics.
At the same time, consumer credit is expected to drop to 1.5 bln stg in October from 1.6 bln the previous month -- largely due to the rise in borrowing costs.
The purchasing managers indices measuring activity in the manufacturing and service sectors are also due out during the week and are forecast to show falls.
The first of the two, the manufacturing sector index, scheduled for Wednesday, is seen slipping to 52.5 from 53.0 in September. The index had improved in October, but few expect a repeat.
"The risk is that October's rise was merely a consolidation after the previous sharper-than-expected drops," analysts at CALYON noted.
Yet others, however believe a modest rise is on the cards, boosted by the US economy's emergence from its 'soft patch'.
The week concludes with the service sector PMI on Friday where the median forecast of analysts polled by AFX News points to a drop to 55.6 from 56.3 in September.
The service sector has been one of the main engines for overall UK economic growth and any drop will be unwelcome.
"On balance we think that weakness in housing, retail activity and recorded softness in manufacturing could well see some softening in services and we are pencilling in a modest dip back below 56," said David Page, economist at Investec.
Also during the week some key survey data are due. The GfK's consumer confidence poll on Tuesday is expected to remain static.
Meanwhile, while the Confederation of British Industry's distributive survey for November is predicted to retreat from the recovery it showed the previous month.
But as CALYON analysts noted, the data "has lost some of its appeal given the misleading signals it sent relative to the hard data on retail sales".

London shares - closing features

FTSE 100 risers
Xstrata 938 up 14
WMC bid situation
Enterprise Inns 659 up 6-1/2
Results due Tuesday' smoking ban fears overdone
Corus Group 55-1/4 up 1/2
Nissan highlights steel shortages in Japan
Smith & Nephew 539 up 4-1/2
Lehman reiterates 'overweight' & ups target to 620 pence from 580
United Utilities 562 up 3
Recent interims
Rexam 461-1/4 up 4-1/2
Contract win

FTSE 100 fallers
William Hill 513 down 14-1/2
Cazenove reiterates 'underperform'
AMVESCAP 324-3/4 down 2-1/4
Weaker market trend
Dixons 149-1/4 down 3/4
Tesco competition worries
Johnson Matthey 1,024 down 8-1/2
'Hold' from 'buy' - Citigroup; 'neutral' from 'overweight' - JP Morgan
Anglo American 1,273 down 5
'Underweight' from 'neutral' - JP Morgan
Barclays 543 down 2
Soc Gen 'sell'; Morgan Stanley 'underweight' with 520p target; press comment
Shell 447-1/4 down 1
New reserves fears
Tesco 305-1/2 down 3-1/4
Finance director exercises options & sells; 'looks pricey' - Financial Times

FTSE 250 risers
Stagecoach 95-1/4 up 1-1/4
Interims due Dec 8
TR Property Investment Trust 126 up 1/2
Interims
Brambles Industries 2710 up 3/4
Merrill Lynch 'buy'
SSL International 297-1/2 up 16
Smith & Nephew bid speculation
AWG 752-1/2 up 17-1/2
Morgan Stanley upgrades to 'overweight'
Viridian Group 700-1/2 up 11
Goldman Sachs ups ests yesterday
London Stock Exchange 413-1/2 up 8-1/2
Deutsche Borse merger speculation
Halfords 299 up 1-3/4
Citigroup 'buy' with 325 pence target
Investec 1,467 up 53
Bridgewell Securities reiterates 'overweight'

FTSE 250 fallers
Jardine Lloyd 366 down 94
FY profits warning
Benfield 264-1/2 down 3-3/4
With Jardine
Wellington Underwriting 80 down 1/2
With Jardine
Evolution Group 140 down 3-3/4
Recent client profit warnings
Lonmin 937 down 35
Dresdner Kleinwort, Williams de Broe & Numis turn negative
Lastminute 101 down 3-1/4
Q4 forecasts missed yesterday
Big Food Group 87-1/2 down 1/2
Baugur bid doubts
Topps Tiles 207-1/4 down 3/4
FY results due Monday
WH Smith 296-1/4 down 14-3/4
Numis 'sell'
Westbury 376-3/4 down12-1/2
'Underperform' - Seymour Pierce
Pennon 890 down 2
Morgan Stanley downgrades to 'underweight'

Other risers
QXL Ricardo 671 up 193-1/2
Tiger Acquisition makes agreed 700 pence a share cash offer
Arlington Group 43-1/2 up 5
Buqer interims; upbeat statement
Malcolm Group 96 up 11
Possible management offer
Stanelco 6.25 up 0.25
New product
Homestyle Group 127-1/2 up 6
Reportedly attracting private-equity interest
Asia Energy 515 up 42-1/2
Drilling update
Cardiff Property 785 up 22-1/2
Year-end NAV up 15 pct; results
Connaught 477-1/2 up 4
Investors Chronicle 'buy'
Ten Alps Communications 47-1/2 up 1-1/2
Solid interims; upbeat statement

Other fallers
Courts 14-3/4 down 13-3/4
Debt worries
Baltimore 11-3/4 down 3-3/4
To quit London stock market
Yoomedia 19-1/2 down 3-1/2
Plans placing to fund acquisitions
Gaskell 9-1/2 down 2
Warns on second half
Vianet Group 5.62 down 0.63
Sales warning
Fuller Smith Turner 'A' 717-1/2 down 18-1/2
Profit-taking after interims; Arbuthnot, Panmure downgrade
Oakdene Homes 81-1/2 down 6
Bid for Honeygrove yesterday

The BLM story this week should be a salutory lesson to all..............there's a time to sell!

;-)