If my first pick for share of 2006 Ofex:STH is just too much for your Xmas turkey threatened cells to cope with, AIM listed Toluna (TOL) gets the second vote. I think because of an already apparently high valuation it is the riskiest pick so far I have made, and if the market slumps in 2006 this is not a defensive play, but there's nothing i can do about a market slump and this is a real growth story regardless, and overall I believe it is an absolute beauty.
Toluna oozes class. Little known yet by the private investor. Only around 10% of the shares are in free float and this company floated earlier this year.
Toluna provide online services to the market research industry and this is a tiny quoted sector (rivals include YOU and RNOW).
Companies these days are desperate to find out what makes the customer tick, so you can imagine Toluna's services are hugely in demand. Toluna is a little further down the line with clients than rivals, clients including Mercedes-Benz, AOL, Peugeot, Dior, IKEA, Aventis and France Telecom. Unlike their competitors, they are not in the market research area of politics.
Although numbers last week show a small profit, it is that explosive growth I have been focussing on. Market cap is about 25 million including revenues up by some 300% (not to be confused by looking at comparisons with the holding company which initially confused me) and they said trading is ahead of forecasts. A forward p/e of over 20 looks severe, however that was before the update, and growth should further outstrip forecasts (Yougov, which gave a bullish trading update today and rose another 10%, is trading on over 45 times 2006 earnings!).
However, as you all know, markets are not all about numbers, Toluna is in a potentially sexy sector with good technology and the share price is just starting to show some momentum. There may be opportunities to trade the shares during the year, despite (or perhaps even fuelled by) a bit of illiquidity.
Margins are around an impressive 25% (twice that of RNOW) and the company has a healthy cash balance of over 4.5 million pounds. Invesco are among the fundies involved.
If you want a bagger in 2006, this is a share with a great chance of delivering from the current 102.5p. IMHO, Buy.