Header updated on 24th April 2008

Market has been looking for an announcement re a licensing deal for Cetilistat, the obesity drug; instead it has been hit with the withdrawal of Renzapride, colonitis drug, following an unauspicious performance at Phase III. Folloiwng has been edited to reflect the situation

Alizyme is a speciality biopharmaceutical company that has been developing product categories for inflammatory gastrointestinal disorders, obesity and supportive cancer care . It is currently trading at a five year low of around 27p with a market cap. of around 60m. Prudential owned a near 20% stake (reduced in sale today?) There was good institutional taku-up of a placing in March rasing 10m at 50p; no wonder there has been "angry" selling. The directors hold 3.34million shares or about 1.7% of the equity (of which Tim McCarthy, CEO has 1.1million); thus, after some 10 years of development effort, they must be comletely focused on the success of the company and multiplying the value of their holdings (but with real doubts about their marketing competence). Alizyme had previously raised capital sums in the past three years at around 70p and 100p so it was somewhat surprising to see the share fall through its 70p support level. Clearly one reason is the current disaffection with the biopharm. market. Another has to be disappointment for the failure of the CEO, Tim McCarthy, to deliver on his expectation that 2007 would be a transformative year. The key question is whether 2008 will be that year and when is it likely to happen? The following points are relevant:

1. Alizyme did sign one deal in late-2007: with Prometheus Labs (U.S.) for the Colal-Pred, at a potential market of $250m, the smallest potential of their four products. Prometheus pay $2.5m up-front with a total of $15m payable upon future development milestones. They are responsible for all US development costs and will pay Alizyme undisclosed royalty rates which will increase with net sales. The deal was followed by a Japanese licensing agreement (which also gave Alizymen access to additional potential drug candidates).

2. This perhaps sets a precedent for subsequent deals for their other products. Cetistat (obesity) has an estimated potential of $1 billion p.a. sales and ATL-104 (mucositis) has a potential of $500m sales. The U.S. FDA has encouraged AZM to also launch a Phase III exercise for Cetistat for all diabetes sufferer because of positive II results for diabetes sufferers who also suffer from obesity.

3. Whilst the development programmes for the other drugs are on-going and appear to be satisfactorily funded from present resources, this is not the case for Cetilistat. The "Product and Company Update statement" (7th Jan 2008) says that 'the Phase III development programme is now ready to commence following the conclusion of a commercial deal'. So, perhaps for the first time, the development programme would be delayed if there was not a funding deal in either the U.S. or Europe. The reason for the sp shooting to nearly 200p in 2004 was the signing of a deal with Takada of Japan for some $50M development funding.

In response to a question at the Conference to report the Renzapride fiasco, McCarthy seemed pleased that there were six potential bidders for Cetilistat; however, that implies any announcement is some time away. When it comes, however, taking a line from the Takada and Prometheus deals it would seem likely that there would be of the order of $100m funding to support development. Of course, the major cash flow will be from licensing of actual sales. The analysts do their own discounted cash flow exercises; those seen tend to dwarf current valuations of the company.

There is not a strong argument for jumping in unless and until the sp establishes a baseline. Given the peaks in the sp, the time will probably come when there will be a very significant jump. An alternative scenario, is that management continue to rpove their level of incompetence and a buy-our results. Clearly the strength of the company is in their biochemists.

Eric

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Alizyme PLC
02 February 2006

SCHEDULE 10



NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR INTERESTS IN SHARES



1. Name of listed company


Alizyme plc



2. Name of shareholder with a major interest




(A) FMR Corp

82 Devonshire Street

Boston, MA 02109



Parent holding company of Fidelity Management & Research Company (FMRCO), investment manager for US mutual funds, and
Fidelity Management Trust Company (FMTC), a US state chartered bank which acts as a trustee or investment manager of
various pension and trust accounts.



(B) Fidelity International Limited (FIL)

P.O. Box HM 670

Hamilton HMCX, Bermuda



Parent holding company for various direct and indirect subsidiaries, including Fidelity Investment Services Ltd. (FISL)
and Fidelity Pension Management (FPM), investment managers for various non-US investment companies and institutional
clients.



(C) The notifiable interests also comprise the notifiable interest of:



Mr Edward C. Johnson 3d

82 Devonshire Street

Boston, MA 02109



A principal shareholder of FMR Corp. and Fidelity International Limited.






3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is regarding the holding
of the shareholder named in 2 above; in respect of a non-beneficial interest; or
in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's spouse
or children under the age of 18


Shareholders named in 2 above




4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of
shares held by each of them


Shares Held Management Company Nominee/Registered Name
1,320,400 FPM JP Morgan, Bournemouth
227,200 FPM Northern Trust London
145,700 FPM Citibank London
91,600 FPM Bank of New York

Brussels
59,400 FPM Mellon Bank
31,900 FPM State Street Bank &

Trust Co London
23,200 FPM Bankers Trust London
8,200 FPM Midland Securities Services
900 FPM Clydesdale Bank PLC
600 FMTC Brown Brothers Harriman and Co
500 FMTC JP Morgan Chase Bank
400 FMTC State Street Bank & Trust Co
200 FMRCO State Street Bank & Trust Co
472,210 FISL JP Morgan, Bournemouth
15,161,807 FIL Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd Lux
152,272 FIL Morgan Stanley, London
73,300 FIL State Street Bank & Trust Co
London
17,500 FIL Northern Trust London
10,800 FIL JP Morgan, Bournemouth
6,900 FIL Bank of New York Brussels
900 FIL National ASTL Bank Melbourne
101,220 FIJ Brown Brothers Harriman and Co



5. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired


1,821,114 ordinary shares



6. Percentage of issued class


1.02%



7. Number of shares / amount of stock disposed


Not applicable



8. Percentage of issued class


Not applicable



9. Class of security


Ordinary shares of 2p each



10. Date of transaction


Not disclosed



11. Date listed company informed


2 February 2006



12. Total holding following this notification


17,907,109





13. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification


10.02%



14. Any additional information


These notifications of disclosable interests constitute separate notifications of interest in the shares and are
combined solely for the purposes of clarity and efficiency. Nothing herein should be taken to indicate that FMR Corp.
and its direct and indirect subsidiaries, Fidelity International Limited and its direct and indirect subsidiaries or Mr
Edward C. Johnson 3d act as a group or in concert in respect of the disclosed interests, or that they are required to
submit these notifications on a joint basis.



15. Name of contact and telephone number for queries


David Campbell



Tel. No. +44 (0)1223 896000



16. Name and signature of duly authorised officer of the listed company
responsible for making this notification


David Campbell, Company Secretary



Date of notification


2 February 2006



The FSA does not give any express or implied warranty as to the accuracy of this
document or material and does not accept any liability for error or omission.
The FSA is not liable for any damages (including, without limitation, damages
for loss of business or loss of profits) arising in contract, tort or otherwise
from the use of or inability to use this document, or any material contained in
it, or from any action or decision taken as a result of using this document or
any such material.


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange



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2005 MoneyAM

Positive quote in Shares today, as follows:

"Anti-obesity drug developer Alizyme's shares did not ignite the market in 2005, finishing a net 26% down after dropping over 50% at one stage. However, the technical view shows that the bull trendline started in late 2002 largely held-up and subsequently the shorter bear trendline has given way. The RSI study is once more on positive ground, though Fibonacci resistance at 145p must give potential to see recovery toward the 2004 high at 222p."

I buy this argument and have re-opened a position in the share, some what belatedly but couldn't do so earlier for a lack of funds. Will try to add comments this evening why its worth buying in with a test of the previous high as an initial target.

Eric

EWRobson
Not on this one but nice to here from you eric, have a look at CCT.

yes, welcome back mr robson, hope a little sanity returns with you.

Thanks driver; will take a look. Kivver, pleased to be back in and the forward momentum is still with the shares. The cap is the key thing and a licencing agreement could take that towards 500K. The main question is the timing. I have commented before that management are happy to play things long: the later they leave the deals for each of the three drugs the better those deals will be. They have raised plenty of funds to take any urgency away. I thin though, and I would appreciate comments, Phase 3 can be costly with significant populations involved. I also think they will want to do different markets in parallel. I thought I detected a change in tone regarding such agreements in the recent statement. The 220p price was achieved on confirmation of the Japanese deal which was some 50M for one market. So there is terrific potential for a long run up, firstly in anticipation of deal(s) and then when it is actually announced. I can't see much downside. After all, they raise funds at just below the present price some two years ago when the outlook was much less certain than it is now.

So, driver et al, why not join the rocket?

Eric

eric
I got enough rockets of my own thanks.

driver et al.

AZM continues its steady ascent. When will it stop? It may pause around 180p where it has spent some time in the past and then on to 220p. Resistance there but then its onwards and upwards, rather like The Last Battle in Narnia. Why should it behave in this way? Because it is now well established, beyond reasonable doubt, that the obesity drug will be a billion dollar hit in three or so years time. Three years is a long way away according to the London market so there is no point in getting there fast; it can just take its time. New people coming on board, existing shareholders gradually accumulating, its a doddle really. Still early days so hop aboard, folk.

Eric

Looking through the Evolution December post on AZM, its surprising to see their price target is only 150p. The graphs are helpful showing the marked advantage of Cetelistat over Xenical. What is fascinating are Dr Jonathon Senior's (sounds wise) DARWIN model projecctions. This shows revenues starting to rise in 2009 and rising reasonably quickly to 150m with 30% operating margin. That implies gross margin of 45m; a pe of 10 would imply a price of 250p. Its quite likely to be nearer 20 implying a price of 500p. It seems to me that the risk of non-acceptance is now very low and the risk of diappointing figures is also low. AZM have been quietly developing their profile in a low key way for many years. The price surge a couple of years ago was overdone as it turned out that this allowed them to raise additional funds in the market and postpone other licencing deals than Takada. A really nice share to accumulate: there is an on-going buy pressure in the market and the rise is so steady that holders don't want to take profits.

Eric

Still progressing nicely. Interesting article in Shares on the Biotech majors, evaluating them on the pipeline; concludes theat SmithKline score in this respect. Alizyme stands comparison, certainly with Shire Pharma which has a cap. of 4.4m. The climb is only just starting!

Eric

Where on earth are the AZM backers? How could this one be missed? See also the ASC thread!

Eric

got interested in this one recently and it seems to be doing okay. what are future prospects?

Harry: this is quite a short thread and it might be worth having a trawl through. I short, AZM rose to a level of 180p in late 2002 and early 2003 on the back of positive progress reports on 4 drugs and, in particular, their obesity drug now called Cetilistat and the agreement with the Japanese company Takada which gave them good funding in return for development rights in Japan. It was thought that this would be followed up with a licencing agreement in other territories. However, the management used the higher SP to borrow money to fund the development through to the current stage. Now that this, and two other drugs, are moving in Phase 3 (the commercial stage of development) they have said that they are looking for partners and any announcement could dwarf that for Japan. Phase 3 is expensive so that it is unlikely that they will go it alone with Cetilistat though they may with their other two drugs.

What sp are we talking about. Well, there is a resistance level around 180p and the sp might pause there awaiting news. However, we are talking about a potential blockbuster that could lead to a cap. more like 500K and an sp approaching 3. AZM would make a good acquisition though that would need to carry the directors: it depends what they want and they may want to see their babies to market. I look upon them, compared with my other holdings, as long-term, i.e. 2 to 3 years, far too long for most in the market!

Happy to respond to any thoughts/queries.

Eric

Just see this as natural correction caused by profit-taking. Fidelity keep adding to their holding, including those on behalf of clients. They will know the company and management intimately; you could say they are in bed with them. The trend-line has not been broken and I think there will be continued upward pressure pending an announcement on licensing deal(s).

Eric

Should help the price a little, but there has been a lot of Institutional buying of recent. What do they know.

Alizyme PLC
22 February 2006

SCHEDULE 10



NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR INTERESTS IN SHARES



1. Name of listed company


Alizyme plc



2. Name of shareholder with a major interest




(A) FMR Corp.

82 Devonshire Street

Boston, MA 02109



Parent holding company of Fidelity Management & Research Company (FMRCO),
investment manager for US mutual funds, and Fidelity Management Trust Company
(FMTC), a US state chartered bank which acts as a trustee or investment manager
of various pension and trust accounts.



(B) Fidelity International Limited (FIL)

P.O. Box HM 670

Hamilton HMCX, Bermuda



Parent holding company for various direct and indirect subsidiaries, including
Fidelity Investment Services Ltd. (FISL), Fidelity Gestion (FIGEST), Fidelity
Investments Advisory (Korea) Limited (FIA(K)L), Fidelity Investments Management
(Hong Kong) Limited (FIMHK), Fidelity Pension Management (FPM), Fidelity
Investments Japan (FIJ) and Fidelity Investments International (FII), investment
managers for various non-US investment companies and institutional clients.



(C) The notifiable interests also comprise the notifiable interest of:



Mr Edward C. Johnson 3d

82 Devonshire Street

Boston, MA 02109



A principal shareholder of FMR Corp. and Fidelity International Limited.






3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is regarding the holding
of the shareholder named in 2 above; in respect of a non-beneficial interest; or
in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's spouse
or children under the age of 18


Shareholders named in 2 above




4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of
shares held by each of them


Shares Held Management Company Nominee/Registered Name
1,551,800 FPM JP Morgan, Bournemouth
432,300 FPM Northern Trust London
280,500 FPM Bank of New York Brussels
269,800 FPM Citibank London
200,100 FPM Mellon Bank
83,800 FPM State Street Bank &

Trust Co London
63,300 FPM Bankers Trust London
34,000 FPM Midland Securities Services
3,400 FPM Clydesdale Bank PLC
99,100 FMTC Brown Brothers Harriman and Co
80,700 FMTC JP Morgan Chase Bank
59,800 FMTC State Street Bank & Trust Co
87,700 FMRCO Brown Brothers Harriman and Co
28,400 FMRCO JP Morgan Chase Bank
200 FMRCO State Street Bank & Trust Co
1,839,910 FISL JP Morgan, Bournemouth
16,406,423 FIL Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd Lux
895,100 FIL JP Morgan, Bournemouth
152,272 FIL Morgan Stanley London
132,500 FIL State Street Bank & Trust Co London
98,000 FIL National ASTL Bank Melbourne
26,000 FIL Bank of New York Brussels
17,500 FIL Northern Trust London
113,820 FIJ Brown Brothers Harriman and Co



5. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired


3,259,916 ordinary shares



6. Percentage of issued class


1.82%



7. Number of shares / amount of stock disposed


Not applicable



8. Percentage of issued class


Not applicable




9. Class of security


Ordinary shares of 2p each



10. Date of transaction


Not disclosed



11. Date listed company informed


21 February 2006



12. Total holding following this notification


22,956,425





13. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification


12.83%



14. Any additional information


These notifications of disclosable interests constitute separate notifications
of interest in the shares and are combined solely for the purposes of clarity
and efficiency. Nothing herein should be taken to indicate that FMR Corp. and
its direct and indirect subsidiaries, Fidelity International Limited and its
direct and indirect subsidiaries or Mr Edward C. Johnson 3d act as a group or in
concert in respect of the disclosed interests, or that they are required to
submit these notifications on a joint basis.



15. Name of contact and telephone number for queries


David Campbell



Tel. No. +44 (0)1223 896000



16. Name and signature of duly authorised officer of the listed company
responsible for making this notification


David Campbell, Company Secretary



Date of notification


22 February 2006



The FSA does not give any express or implied warranty as to the accuracy of this
document or material and does not accept any liability for error or omission.
The FSA is not liable for any damages (including, without limitation, damages
for loss of business or loss of profits) arising in contract, tort or otherwise
from the use of or inability to use this document, or any material contained in
it, or from any action or decision taken as a result of using this document or
any such material.


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

See Shares this morning. AZM is Number 9 on list of 100 'Rockets': "While Alizyme's shares have soared over the apst yer, there is plenty on the horizon to suggest that the bull run has further to go." Goes on to comment on the three drugs entering Phase 3. "The most likely next step would be for AZM to find a licensing partner to help fund Phase III trials and this should be the next major catalyst for the share price." "...analysts believe peak sales of Cetlistat could top $1 billion a year, so the company should not be short of potential suitors."

I am accumulating an overweight position (may need to take the obesity drug!). Looking for 3 by June.

Eric

Eric you've convinced me! I have dipped a toe in today perhaps I'll be able to qualify for a free sample!!

Great, Moneyplus. You will already be in profit. My imagination tell me that you don't need the product, though!

Eric

moneyplus

OK I've looked at this too and put a foot in as well! No, Eric I don't need the product.
Good luck to all

Ruthie

Don't know about the stock, Eric - but I could definitely do with the product these days! :o(

ruthie and moneyplus on board! Success indeed. Two very sagacious ladies. Don't worry, marcus, the walrus wasn't impeded by weight and just think of the initial velocity of the golf ball. I would advise you not to invest in the shares: what would you do with the profits other than invest in another putter and driver?

Eric