Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

Hils , pound falling ... no deal here we come.

And if Scarlett Johannson doesn't turn up I want I word with Gove.

Every market has News Days, Economy Days, and Technical Days, Dilbert.

Today's an Economy Day. Ça va.

Ah right , just like all the down days last week I suppose.

I've looked at the FX charts and besides the fall immediately after the vote there is nothing more than a very short term reaction to Brexit news.

Probably strengthen when we leave , deal or no deal.

52 days ago we lost to Man U in OGS first game in charge of them and it only seems like yesterday.


52 days time we'll be out of the EU.


Clock showing no signs of slowing down.

Tic toc.

Dill you must be the only living person who thinks that the March 29 date will not be moved.

... and Mrs May.

Yeah but she’d believe anything that one.

Dil's dream of what is waiting for him,

LOL Fred, that is a good one but Brexit will also likely bring the end of JC`s leadership (not that you can call him a leader). I guess your hours of dreaming will alao come to pass when you wake up, and realise it was but a dream.

Fred , unlike your good self I'm not dreaming of anything.

I'll take what comes and get on with it.

Dil,

I don't know what timeframe you're looking at, but the daily cable charts clearly show that sterling rose steadily from mid-December through to the last vote on the 29th of January. This was solely on the expectation/rumour that Brexit would somehow be delayed. When that didn't happen on the 29th, there was no further rumour/news to continue powering sterling until next week's vote. You know the age-old adage - buy the rumour, sell the news.

So, since then the focus has been away from Brexit, and fundamentals and the economy have been in play. Yesterday for instance, the market had priced in only a minor drop in services PMI. When the survey came in below expectations, sterling fell.

You've got some more economic data due tomorrow which might affect it, but, after that, the Brexit rumour mill will take over again in the run up to next week's meaningful vote - what will happen in Brussels, will she get her deal through, will the Malthouse proposal have any substance, will Grieve and co seek another extension? Any story about an extension will see sterling rise. Anything that suggests Brexit will happen on time will cause it to fall.

Dil.

Seems you have much in common with a Blatta.

Hils , what if a deal is agreed against a no deal ? Down and down or up and down ?

I could match that chart to expectations of Cardiff staying up if I wanted to.

What will be will be and I still say it'll rise when we leave.

"I could match that chart to expectations of Cardiff staying up if I wanted to."

Oh for Petes sake he really has lost it now -):

If you leave without a deal, Dil, sterling will tank. That's most definitely not in the price.

And if you leave with a deal, it will need other trade deal negotiations to go well during the transition period to make it rise.

Hils.

Leave Dilly alone.

He is dreaming again.

He is such stuff
As dreams are made on; and his little life
Is rounded with a sleep.

The EU needs a deal just as much as the UK, CNG. This will go down to the last few days, then there will be a compromise and a delay of art 50 while the details are ironed out. At least that is my penny's worth.

It,

GB to EU will be just like a gnat's bite compared with Eu effect on GB.

Some gnat Fred. The GB economy is the second largest in the EU and leaving is equivalent to 21 of the weaker economies all leaving at once. Carry one with statements like that and you'll lose your Mesa card.
May is not going to back down, those currently heading the various institutions are from gnat states and when Merkel orders they will behave. Union it hardly is.

The EU's share of the world economy is shrinking all the time.