The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

SECOND ASOS CHALLENGE

The portfolio is up 15% in its first three weeks. OK, SEO accounts for some 10%but it is still pretty good going.

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% week
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 17.0__ 77673 136.4 58.1 BBSSUUW
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 602.5_ 30607 52.7_ 11.5 CDMM
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 177.5_ 13597 36.0_ 4.4_ JJ
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.38__ 13566 35.7_ -2.6 WY
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 23.0__ 25300 26.4_ 1.1_ BEMS
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 84.0__ 12491 24.9_ 15.5 TT
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 156.5_ 6104_ 22.0_ 9.8_ B
MLS_ 7.19___ 69500__ 8.5___ 5908_ 18.2_ -10.5 W
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 98.25_ 5797_ 15.9_ 11.3 K
MDW_ 9.09___ 165000_ 10.5__ 17325 15.5_ 18.3 SV
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 14.5__ 5742_ 14.9_ 0.0_ I
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 135.5_ 11267 12.7_ 15.3 EE
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 259.5_ 5618_ 12.5_ -12.0 C
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 214.5_ 5598_ 12.0_ 12.6 G
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 11.88_ 5584_ 11.8_ 9.2_ T
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 515.0_ 5511_ 10.5_ 0.5_ P
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 148.0_ 5439_ 8.8__ 1.7_ A
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 68.5__ 5435_ 8.7__ 3.8_ O
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 16.5__ 5429_ 8.6__ 4.8_ O
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 229.5_ 10787 8.0__ -5.7 GH
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 870.5_ 5354_ 7.3__ -0.5 P
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 348.25 5311_ 6.4__ -0.5 P
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 65.8__ 10586 6.0__ 1.9_ OO
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 91.8__ 5276_ 5.5__ 14.7 K
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 699.5_ 10493 4.8__ 2.9_ DP
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 264.0_ 5108_ 2.2__ 0.6_ G
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 12.0__ 5100_ 2.1__ 5.4_ v
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 261.5_ 10199 2.0__ 6.3_ DE
SPS_ 50.5___ 49500__ 51.5__ 25493 2.0__ 2.0_ AHIKK
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 164.0_ 5051_ 1.1__ -0.6 G
NRG_ 220.25_ 2270___ 221.5_ 5028_ 0.6__ 1.4_ C
CASH 142.25_ 7030___ 143.0_ 10053 0.5__ 5.9_ CD
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 7.3___ 4906_ -1.9_ 2.1_ v
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 8.4___ 4819_ -3.6_ -2.8 Y
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 5.12__ 4390_ -3.6_ -3.6 W
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 21.5__ 23865 -4.4_ 1.2_ LLLLR
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 244.0_ 4770_ -4.6_ 2.7_ m
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 116.5_ 18605 -7.0_ -4.1 AIRR
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.8___ 4571_ -8.6_ -3.0 Y
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 14.3__ 8978_ -10.2 -12.3 UU
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 45.5__ 4461_ -10.8 -13.3 I
PET_ 53.75__ 18600__ 47.0__ 8742_ -12.6 -6.5 JR
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 52.8__ 4236_ -15.3 2.4_ H
PDX_ 231____ 6495___ 191.5_ 12438 -17.1 -0.3 AJT
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 65.0__ 16562 -17.2 2.8_ ZZZZ
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 7.75__ 4131_ -17.3 0.0_ Y
PKL_ 192.25_ 2600___ 154.5_ 4017_ -19.6 0.3_ H

totals___________________ 507315_ 15.3_ 8.3
small-cap index_____ 2972.6 (anyone with access to the starting figure?)
Major movers of the week:
SEO up another 58%! Its a natural conclusion to draw that the market has been missed. This is probably far from being the case. The sales projection for 2 years ahead is 1000 machine sales and my estimate is that the pe will then be down to 10 at the present price whereas before long those projections will be left behind. ASDA are negotiating a contract and this will be on SEO's terms given that exclusivity for a period must be extremely valuable for ASDA. BUY!

There are 7 other shares which have moved more than 10% this week: MDW, BPRG, GWP, TRT, GHH, NLR, BGC. All the charts look positive to the layman (analysis appreciated, johngtudor).

BPRG are worth picking out because they have won a court case with SEO - whatever the actual sum received, which may include the InGel division of SEO, this is very much intended to demonstrate their toughness in protecting their rights. They are playing their position long-term, replacing technology unchanged in 60 years, so unlikely to move as fast as SEO but a very good medium term play.

NLR are worth picking out also as a share perhaps none of us can leave out of their portfolio. The share just rises nearly every day - the reason is that there are more and more gambnling on the internet every day and nearly all the money is moved about by NLR.

INVESTORS
BOS and Seb are almost out of site with double holdings in SEO; hats off to them! Yours Truly and Markus are also indebted to SEO but are probably fighting for the places. Moneyplus performing particularly well without any SEOs! Team has gone to sleep, ladies excepted, probably dreaming of all those sylph-like young girls in ASOS dresses (or without them!).

B 80.4_ T 11.1_ I -0.2
S 78.7_ J 10.6_ A -3.3
W 44.5_ V 7.8__ L -4.5
U 37.7_ O 7.2__ H -6.3
M 32.0_ P 7.1__ R -7.7
C 16.6_ K 6.3__ Z -17.2
D 15.1_ G 5.8__
E 13.5_ Y 1.5__

A reminder of the Stock Exchange challenge which starts at the end of March in which there is money to be won for the winner in each region based on 10 stocks at 5000 each, one of which must be in your own region (great that SEO is in South-East!). It adds work for administrator of thsi challenge to change shares so I propose we leave this offer open for two more weeks only. I will assume this is accepted unless anyone objects.

Good investing! Eric

Thanks Eric-pleased with Nlr rise but still waiting for Pay to start rising. Congratulations to the leading hands!

EW...well done on updating and seeing who is where in the comp...Are you sure that you that my BGT , MDW ande AEN haven't put me up there somewhere?..( I always dream:-)
LOL Jules

top of the league...again!!!! cheers

eric , what's the stock exchange challenge?

bos

Just go to www.imvestaquest.com for details. Entries close by 4th March although I think the competition runs from the end of March to end of June. By the way, you haven't got a chance because you can only count SEO once only! lol! 5K for the reional winner who goes into the inter-regional final. Blast! Sponsored by Barclays but it will be good to take their money off them. If there are 10 regions we can win 10 prizes between us, can't we!

Eric

congratulation bosley
but just wait mdw takes off

regards
seb

Thanks again, Eric, for posting.

But remember that I actually updated my SEO holding from 5k to 10k a while ago (just wish I'd have done so IN REAL LIFE!) so I think we are still in with a shout here? From being in 4th.from last pos. ..... up to mid-table..... then up to 6th. pos. ..... and now up to 4th. pos., remember my prediction: Markusantonius will win this Challenge at his first attempt - "It's a Marathon, not a sprint!". Sorry, but I've had a few beers this evening!!!!!

Regards,

Kus.

Markus

Good to learn that you are in relaxed mode after a few beers. SEO transfer already into your performance - mind, I intend to keep you behind me in 4th; not sure that I can catch seb or bos with only one portion of SEO. I accept it is a marathon which is why I suspect someone will come through: loof at moneyplus for instance without the benefit of any SEOs.

Eric

I would like to encourage comment on your selections in the portfolio, with cross-reference to the appropriate bb. In addition to my comments in the weekly report, worth mentioning:

ASC: driven down by shorting and are now an excellent buy with good potential to doube over the next few months.
AZM: I came out of these when I realised their timescale was probably too long for the challenge. However, there has been an excellent article in the IC (see bb) and I would be confident on the share doubling at least by the end of the year, if you have more patience than me. I would hate to be left in the cold (the NW wind is bad enough this morning) so I've taken out a CFD to tuck away; negligable downside risk.

Eric

Eric lots of enquiries on the NLR thread as to who you do your CFDs with--the interest is rising but it takes nerve!!

General Q re: MM's - Does anyone if they are allowed to (and actively do) make agreements amongst themselves to manipulate the sp's/spreads, eg. by acquring stock at a relatively low sp in the sure knowledge that they can all hike them up at a later date? Say if institutions want them in huge volume but supply is short at the moment? Hope this Q makes sense!

Hi to all you wealthy experts. I too am a newcomer, but feel I know many of you already. I purchased ASOS at 10p and SEO at 6p, I still hold both - rightly or wrongly !!!! I also will watch with interest, and learn ! Dave

Welcome, Dave, and well done! Some of us tend to trade in and out too much. Looking back over 2004, I would have been far better to have just stayed in ASC and reviewed it at the end of the year. I am now out of theshares, but have built up a decent CFD position around present prices. Have decided to run SEO through the inevitable downs and ups.

moneyplus: operate CFDs with blue index; will pop over to the NLR bb and put a fuller answer there. I don't think its a different order of 'nerve'. If you invest 10K is SEO, say; then , with a CFD at 4:1, you are effectively investing 40K. So, if the price doubles, you are plus 40K instead of 10K. If the price halves, you are minus 20K instead of minus 5K. Its really just a matter of gearing. The key thing is to select a share with limited downside compared to upside, but that a good principle anyway! The really difficult thing, I am finding, is the decision whether to close a position once you have a significant margin as, by that time, the downside has becoming a relatively larger risk.

Eric

Thank you Eric-will check out Blue Index and maybe have a go!

Eric asked me to cast an eye over the technicals of the second ASOS table which I am happy to do, albiet briefly. Now my comments are necessarily brief, and you are of course all welcome to have completely different views and opinions. One proviso up front it is somewhat difficult to reach meaningful conclusions on small cap shares that do not have much liquidity...but there may be some guidance from recent SP movements.
Here goes using MoneyAM's own charting package where I can:

Thursday 17th - using the last published Table:

SEO: SP falling back from overbought levels. Recent placing price provides support at 12.75p. However there is a further chart support at 11.8p, if it falls back through these levels and down below 10p we will have to wait and see where it bounces before reaching any new conclusions. Remeber after sucha sharp breakout we need to see a downward movement to establish the stocks chart position, and as such the uptrend is still very much in place. Only nervous holders would sell and in fact if it haolds at current levels for a few days I will BUY some more myself!

NLR: A very Bullish Chart! Clearly the SP has risen significantly of late and what we are seeing now is some consolidation from overbought levels. The uptrend since mid Jan has been dramatic and not once has the SP fallen back to test the 10 day ma. I would place the top of the current narrow resistance trend line around 6.80.

BGT: Very small Mkt Cap, massive rise since mid Jan. Consolidation for a while with MACD falling away at present. May be a better buying opportunity, maybe not! Would have to study company and take a view, perhaps the 'bright people' that bought in early can tell us as there is little data to work on!!

CFP: Another small Mkt Cap so not much to say, except that the SP has found support at 0.3p and resistance at 0.45p. Currently indicators suggest further falls.

DGM: Strong chart, with upper resistance trend line at 25.4p and lower at 20.3p Suggest holders watch for these levels and if they break out either way on a 2 day close basis you can take a view.

BPRG: As current holders of this stock will know this is a traders dream share. With large momentum driven swings. Currently the SP is looking for support at 75p after spending some time testing the downside around 62 - 65p if it dinds it then the upper target is perhaps 100p and beyond.

AGL: Strong uptrend Upper resistance 164p lower 148p.

MLS: The big drop from 20p in early November overhangs the Stock. All indicators failry neutral with the SP becalmed in the 8p area. Some further weakness on my indicators for what it's worth. The SP will have to move up through the 20p zone again for it to regain the Bulls confidence.

BGC: Support at 90p and with early hints of a recovery underway. Possible 110p target.

MDW: A lovely golden cross in mid Jan where the 50 day ma went throught the 200. We have a slow uptrend with a resistance level at 11.3p and lower support at 6.2p, but I favour the mid point bounce at 8.6p for a further attempt at the upper resistance level.

CEY: Well the SP looks like it's heading for around the 50 day ma support level at 12p, with an upper resistance target at 15.5p if that helps. Resource stocks look good for the longer term so I plan to investigate further.


Thats all for now as I have to turn my attention to the US markets. As I said before please comment as you see fit and hopefully in a positive vein before I continue trawling through the rest of these excellent selections.

John

John

That's brilliant: not only helps with the individual stocks we are interested in but also helps in understanding the priniples of technical analysis you are following. Many thanks for the efforts.

Eric

Got caught up with some interesting threads and had to have my 2 penn'orth. So not got onto the analysis - Sunday pm probably. Apologies, folk. far too many SEO-brations these days, as well!

Eric

ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO - 19th feb.

A less dramatic week with the portfolio , which is good for the ticker! Some good profits so worth listening to the master, Jim Slater, in this week's Sunday Times:

"What is the most important lesson you have learnt about money?"
"To run profits and cut losses. That way you get big profits and small losses. Ninety percent of investors get it wrong because its human nature to snatch a profit and not recognise or admit to a loss. As a result they invariably get small profits and large losses".

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% week
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 15.5__ 70820 115.6 -8.8 BBSSUUW(137)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 598.5_ 30404 51.7_ -0.7 CDMM(137)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 192.5_ 14746 47.5_ 8.5_ JJ(137)
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.380_ 13566 35.7_ 0.0_ WY(137)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 24.375 26813 34.0_ 6.0_ BEMS(137)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 163.5_ 6377_ 27.5_ 4.5_ B(137)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 13.25_ 6228_ 24.7_ 11.5 T
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 83.5__ 12416 24.2_ -0.6 TT(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 76.5__ 6070_ 21.4_ 11.7 O
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 228.5_ 5964_ 19.3_ 6.5_ G
MLS_ 7.19___ 69500__ 8.375_ 5821_ 16.5_ -1.5 W(137)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 14.375 5693_ 13.9_ -0.9 I(137)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 260.5_ 5640_ 12.9_ 0.4_ C
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 522.5_ 5591_ 12.1_ 1.5_ P
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 94.0__ 5546_ 10.8_ -4.3 K
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 16.625 5470_ 9.4__ 0.8_ O
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 881.0_ 5418_ 8.6__ 1.2_ P
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 67.25_ 10827 8.5__ 2.3_ OO
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 130.0_ 10810 8.1__ -4.1 EE
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 24.25_ 26918 7.8__ 12.8 LLLLR
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 229.0_ 10763 7.8__ -0.2 GH
SPS_ 50.5___ 49500__ 54.0__ 26730 6.9__ 4.9_ AHIKK
MDW_ 9.09___ 165000_ 9.6___ 15881 5.9__ -8.3 SV(137)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 143.5_ 5274_ 5.5__ -3.0 A
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 700.0_ 10500 4.8__ 0.1_ DP
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 167.5_ 5159_ 3.2__ 2.1_ G
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 266.0_ 5147_ 3.0__ 0.8_ G
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 87.8__ 5046_ 0.9__ -4.4 K
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 257.5_ 10043 0.5__ -1.5 DE
NRG_ 220.25_ 2270___ 220.25 5000_ 0.0__ -0.6 C
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 50.5__ 4952_ -1.0_ 11.0 I
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 7.4___ 4939_ -1.2_ 0.7_ v
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 251.5_ 4917_ -1.7_ 3.1_ m
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 11.25_ 4781_ -4.3_ -6.3 v
CASH 142.25_ 7030___ 135.0_ 9491_ -5.1_ -5.6 CD
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 5.0___ 4288_ -5.8_ -2.3 W
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 8.125_ 4672_ -6.5_ -3.0 Y
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 305.12 4653_ -6.8_ -12.4 P
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 14.25_ 8978_ -10.2 0.0_ UU
PDX_ 231____ 6495___ 202.5_ 13152 -12.3 5.7_ AJT
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.75__ 4286_ -14.3 -6.3 Y
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 53.0__ 4256_ -14.9 0.5_ H
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 105.5_ 16848 -15.8 -9.4 AIRR
PET_ 53.75__ 18600__ 44.8__ 8324_ -16.7 -4.8 JR
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 62.0__ 15798 -21.0 -4.6 ZZZZ
PKL_ 192.25_ 2600___ 149.5_ 3887_ -22.2 -3.2 H
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 6.75__ 3598_ -28.0 -12.9 Y

totals___________________ 502492.7 14.2 -1.0
small-cap_ 2891.87 2959.5 450290.0 2.3_ -0.4

The number opposite some shares is the reference to a post made by johngtudor, our in-house charting guru, on that particular share. He aims to cover more over a period of time - I believe this will increase the value of the portfolio as a source of leads for each of us.

SEO still leads the way although down on the week. In fact it has tested and established, probably, a support level at 12.825p, the price of the recent placing. It seems likely that there was a shorting on Monday which had to be covered on Friday this bringing the sp back up. Interesting which way the sp moves on Monday with the prelims coming up Monday week.

NLR. Interesting comments by John. However, since written the sp has come back to test the 10 day MA. I have topped up but there could be profit-takers around after a long bull run.

BGT. One that beats the charters because of the lack of history. The "Bubble" console for pre-school children sounds terrific. Any comment, Jules?

CFP. Again, nothing much to get hold of from the charting point-of-view. Those of us backing it base outr faith on the professional management team taking it forward. Broking and flotation services for AIM companies, which is certainly a growth market.

You forget Legend at your peril! He has the main mover of the week in TND. The charts look as though they are testing a long-term resistance level. Interesting to hear, legend, why you put all your eggs in this particular basket and your view of the potential.

Legend had the winner in the last challenge, BNH. Looking down the list there are a number of companies which have fallen back aftere good runs, including are very own ASOS. BNH is looking very interesting at this level - again legend is a better person to explain and comment how he sees it from here.

bos and seb still lead the way on the back of SEO. moneyplus rises to 4th and is the best-paced of those who don't hold SEO. Team is still ZZZZZZZZing but watch out for ASC shooting up the table before long!

B 73.2_ D 13.1_ I -0.2
S 67.8_ E 12.7_ A -3.3
W 38.4_ O 11.8_ Y -3.3
M 34.1_ G 8.3__ H -5.6
U 29.5_ L 7.7__ R -10.1
J 16.5_ K 6.4__ Z -21.0
C 15.1_ P 4.6
T 15.1_ V 1.5

Have a good week's trading.

Eric

EW sorry, have had a hectic week.. will try and answer questions re Bright things more fully this week, but yes, The bubble concept is a good un and nursery teachers are very excited about it too.... If all goes to plan in the next few months then this share should double fairly quickly...It is speculative...but hey, fortune favours the brave:-)
EW, Does my AEN not rate on the table above?