Main Web Site : www.henderson-morley.com

On line shop web site : http://www.herpesexpert.com (Frost and Simpson)

Investor Relations email : investors@henderson-morley.com

Henderson Morley is a drug discovery company

The company has been developed specifically to carry out preliminary sourcing and screening of candidates to combat diseases caused by the herpes family of viruses and certain other DNA viruses

Latest GECR update 15th October 2006

Latest GE&CR update - 15th Oct 2006 :


The news investors have all been waiting for - regarding negotiations with a US dermatological pharmaceutical firm has finally been unveiled. The licence has been granted under an agreement to
Cutanea, a U.S. pharmaceutical company, specialising in the development of dermatology products in the US market.

The licence is for new applications of ICVT for the treatment of dermatological conditions in humans. The agreement and takes the form of an exclusive American, Mexican and Canadian wide licence to bring products to market through a programme of pre-clinical and clinical development of treatments either by Cutanea or through a sub-licence. Under the terms of the Agreement, Henderson Morley will receive up to 6.675 million dollars in development and commercialisation milestone payments up to the point at which the application receives regulatory approval, and will receive royalties on net sales thereafter.

Under its business plan, Henderson Morley has stated its belief that, following clinical development and regulatory licence approval, sales of the product in excess of $1.5 billion could be achieved over the subsequent ten year period. This would give a potential royalty to Henderson Morley in excess of $115 million over this term.

As a drug discovery company, it is imperative that Henderson continues to grant licenses to further develop its technology portfolio. This is the group's third ICVT license agreement. Encouragingly, Cutanea has a great management team with a proven track record of commercialising dermatology products.

Meanwhile, the company has announced that it has been working away on a vaccine against Koi Carp Herpes virus. The group believes it is now ready to start field trials of a
candidate vaccine, in a collaboration with the Internationally renowned Hagerman
Aquaculture Research Institute in Idaho USA. The initial immunogenicity studies should produce results within 6 months, enabling Henderson Morley scientists to optimise the vaccine formulation, with a view to securing a product licence from the veterinary authorities as soon as practicable.

Clearly activity at Henderson Morley has been significant in recent weeks. The licensing announcement is very encouraging, but with the news now out of the way, the shares have eased - a classic case of buy on the rumour, sell on the news. That said, the stock has now pulled back below the recent placing price. With so much going on at the company, further newsflow in the shorter term is far from unlikely.

*Henderson Morley is a corporate client of Bishopsgate Communications which is owned by RSH, the ultimate owner of GE&CR.

Forecasts and a formal recommendation are suspended ahead of the publication of a detailed note next month.

dibbles,
what would you consider a fair price to get in at?

only ask as i think i missed the boat with erx
Alex

The price should drop back now over the next few days.

hmmm, missed the boat again[ long term should be good i was just looking for a quick short grab and run before i disappear off to war and cant play stocks'n'shares for a good while
Alex

Why Haystack?
IMO, sp will certainly hold until the announcement is reality on 27th ...... what happens then depends on what the deal actually is and where sp stands at the time

The deal is in the price unless it is fantastic. The short term money that came in today will be out as soon as the price flattens and it will then drop. No more news for a while and the speculatiive traders will be out. Of course the deal may not turn out to be that good and then the price will tank, which is why the short termers won't wait.

out of curiosity, do you own any shares at all in anything, or even a portfolio of short positions?

if sp had hit 6p, it's previous high when the deal with US was first mooted, i might have agreed with you ..... however, since that time, a smaller deal with a European company has been concluded, so arguably even a 6p target would not be that ambitious.

I know you disagree with that view, so have you now taken a short position yourself and if not, why not?

Good response to hayskack Mr Cynic, he let his 'doom mongering' down with
ie. 'no more news for a while'---- is next Wed a while ??? etc etc
Could we ask h/s to join the iii site amoung the 500+ crap posters 20/21st inst..
This is a clean(ish) BB site, and his coments did not profit short players albeit he
did his best--

nr

HS is fully entitled to his view, but there would seem to be a marked reticence to financially back any of his bearish statements either here or elsewhere.

And lo and behold it has fallen today. As I said above the short term money is leaving.

It looks like most holders are expecting a very good deal. If that is the case then the deal will already be in the price. If it is just a good deal then the price should fall after the deal is announced (maybe after a small short term rise)

Fair play to Haystack because the price has collapsed and is down an horrendous 1% today so give him credit LOL Anyway I'm willing to lose money if needs be but I'm expecting big things from HML!!

sorry to keep teasing you H/S, but as we have yet to establish whether or not you have any open positions of any kind in any stock, it looks as though you calld the move on HML spectacularly wrong! ...... However, the prudent may now want to consider the quantum of any upside (5.225 mid as i write), for it looks as though the lemmings are leaping on board while awaiting the news on 27th.

A bit further to fall now.

from where to where? ..... and of course it would be interesting to hear whether or not you have shorted already (and quantum of course), either HML or any other of the stocks you have attempted to dis or deramp

arguably set by trailing stopp too tight and have been shut out, but what the hell .... very nice profit and slightly above the notional target I had set at Day 1 ..... please, everyone, be careful ..... a few months ago HML rocketed and then dived again and it is certainly a truism that the anticipation proves much better than the arrival.

As I said above the deal was always in the price. The deal isn't even that good.

The money is for development and will add little to their profit.

It will be years before revenues and profit!

The MMs will beat you to death now - up a bit, down a bit, the illusion of a rally etc.

Shares rise on rumour and fall on confirmation. HML is no different.

Haystack
Not in but looks a bit over sold the deal looks OK by me, at first glance

But yes you are right Shares rise on rumour and fall on confirmation punters should read the deal.

If you have just got out have a look at ERX

HS has only proved right after the event....... in fact he called it badly wrong by calling to short when the price was still about 4p ..... in fact, ithas been above 5 for several days, reaching a high just below 6 before today's presumably momentary 6.38

For myself, i am afraid that for once i was an accurate smartarse .... see post 136

I never called to short it ever as I don't short stocks. My comments were that the deal was already in the price and it would fall on confirmation. That has been apparant for a long time. I expect it to fall quite a bit more yet to maybe 2p or lower, maybe even to 1p. Their revenue will consist only of money to commercialise their product and conduct trials for the present. That won't help their profitability much, consequently there is little point in holding these unless you don't mind a long wait.