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CFA CAPITAL - EXCITING YEAR AHEAD (DGT)     

SueHelen - 31 Mar 2004 10:42

Final Results Due In March 2005.

http://www.cityfin.co.uk
Trades over 450,000 shares are delayed in reporting by 1 Hour.

One of City Financial Associates (CFP's) main operating goals is to bring fledgling companies to the market. With the depressed stock market over the last few years many potential clients have deffered entry to the LSE. Markets have now turned and the reality of a sucession of new floatations is growing. CFP are well positioned to enjoy the rewards that will be benefited to them in this growing market place.

Why the EXCITEMENT - will here are the reasons why I think we're on a winner.

1) My motto is when it's comes to investing there are three things. Management, management and management. With any good investment - the management should be the driving force in a company. Can they cut the mustard, are they dynamic, do they have good contacts? I think so if you read the following profile.

Stephen Barclay, Executive Chairman

Stephen Barclay, aged 61, qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1964 with Robson Rhodes before obtaining an MBA degree from Wharton Business School in 1967. In 1989, after a career during which he reorganised various companies, he established City Financial Associates Plc (formerly Clifton Financial Associates Plc) to provide corporate finance advice to small to medium sized private and public companies. In August 1998, City Financial Associates Plc was purchased by Talisman House Plc (now Seymour Pierce Group Plc) where he became group executive chairman. In December 1998, Talisman House Plc purchased an institutional stockbroker, Seymour Pierce Limited, where he became executive chairman. He resigned as a director of Seymour Pierce Group Plc and various other group companies at the end of March 2001 to found CFA Capital Group Plc. He is a director of a number of public companies including MICE Group Plc and Talisman First Venture Capital Trust Plc and is a governor of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

John Shaw, Executive Director

John Shaw, aged 54, qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1975 with Touche Ross & Co in London. Subsequently he spent two years seconded to the Quotations Department of the London Stock Exchange returning to Touche Ross & Co to join the Corporate Finance Group until 1982. After a period as a sole practitioner, he joined Chase Investment Bank Limited in 1985, was appointed a director and founded the Equity Investment Group, formed to invest in unquoted companies. In 1990 he joined Henry Ansbacher & Co Limited as an Assistant Director of Corporate Finance. He started working with City Financial Associates Plc in early 1995 and was appointed a director in December 1996. He was appointed a director of Seymour Pierce Limited in December 1998 where he was initially Head of Corporate Finance and latterly Head of Private Equity. He resigned from Seymour Pierce Limited and various other group companies at the end of March 2001 to found CFA Capital Group Plc.

2) They have turned a 2 million loss into nearly a profit if you ignore costs for discontinuing operations - that some turn around.

3) With only small market capital of 3.83M it's feasible to suggest they could make a good profit this year as they have already got off to a good start signing more clients.

A profit of half million would give a pe ratio of 7.66

1 million a pe ratio of 3.83

1.5 million a pe ratio of 2.55

2 million a pe ratio of 1.91.

So it would only take a small profit to make this company super undervalued. Consider the possibility they could achieve a 2 million profit this year, which is the least, I expect, we could be looking at a share price of 7p. YES THAT'S 7P (An average p/e for the sector is 16.) Even with a profit of only 1 million that's still an upside of 3.5p.

3) Consider the fact that some of their clients pay their fee by way of giving large share holdings to CFP. All it would take is two or three creamy companies to give them valuable portfolio holding which they could cash in at a substantial return.

4) The IPO is sector has already increased three fold this year. More and more companies are coming into AIM and from abroad then ever before. Rules have changed where foreign companies can use a fast track scheme to get on board more quickly then ever before. I'm sure CFA Associates are well positioned to benefit with this increase in volume.

5) We could see a re-rating this year in this sector, which would be the cherry on the top.

I rest my case, to me this is a no brainer unless you want to wait for the next results for proof they have achieved profitability. If that's your cautious approach, fine but by then, you can then expect a much higher share price then now.

Major Shareholdings:
Stephen John Barclay 64,600,000 11.66%
Pershing Keen Noms Ltd 49,610,000 8.95%
John Richard Shaw 29,400,000 5.31%

RNS Number:9414C
CFA Capital Group PLC
15 September 2004

CFA Capital Group plc
Interim results for the 6 months ended 30 June 2004
CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

Highlights

* Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM companies - broker to 15 AIM companies

* Currently handling a number of AIM flotations and other major transactions

* Strong second-half order book - solid outlook for year

* Turnover for the period up 95% to #510,000 (6 months to 30 June 2003:
#262,000 from continuing operations)

* Losses before taxation of #58,000, (loss 6 months to 30 June 2003:
#208,000 from continuing operations)

* Currently recruiting to further strengthen team

Introduction
I am pleased to announce that CFA is now retained as Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM
companies and broker to 16 AIM companies. The company is currently working on a
number of AIM flotations and other major transactions, and as such has built a
strong order book for the second half of 2004. The fees generated by this
activity, taken together with our underlying retainer income and largely-fixed
overhead base, leaves us well-positioned for a satisfactory outcome to the year
as a whole.

Sharply reduced losses for the first half were achieved even though we had to
incur costs on two flotations that were not completed until July 2004 which
generated revenues of #225,000. These revenues were not recognised in the
results to 30 June 2004.

Turnover for the period nonetheless increased 95% to #510,000 (6 months to 30
June 2003: #262,000 from continuing operations), with losses before taxation of
#58,000 showing a marked improvement from #208,000 (6 months to June 2003 -
continuing operations).

Following the sale of CFA Securities Limited in 2003, CFA is now firmly focused
on servicing the needs of clients who are essentially AIM listed companies run
by entrepreneurs. We now have a team of eight, comprising executives and support
staff, providing corporate finance and broking advice. We are in the process of
recruiting further executives to join the team. This recruitment will ensure
client service levels are maintained as we meet the increasing demand for our
services.

In accordance with my statement on the results for the year to 31 December 2003,
CFA started the beginning of 2004 with a good pipeline of work and with a degree
of optimism that market conditions would enable these deals to be completed and
this was the case in the first quarter to 31 March 2004. However, in the second
quarter, in a number of cases transactions that we anticipated completing in the
first half have either been completed since the end of June or have been
deferred. This adversely affected our earlier expectations of financial
performance in the first half of the year.

Financial review
Despite these factors CFA achieved a creditable result in the first half.
Turnover was #510,000 (6 months ended 30 June 2003: #262,000 from continuing
operations), overheads (including plc running costs) were #609,000 (2003:
#458,000 on continuing operations) and the loss before taxation for the period
was #58,000 (6 months ended 2003: loss #208,000).

These results need to be seen in the context of our having completed the
flotation of Smallbone plc (admitted to AIM on 26 July) and Ragusa Capital plc
(admitted to AIM on 15 July). No income is taken into account in the period in
respect of these transactions, although a significant amount of the costs
relating to these flotations were incurred in the period.

CFA is now retained as Nominated Adviser to 20 AIM companies and retained Broker
to AIM 15 companies. Annualised recurring income currently totals over #340,000
representing approximately 30 per cent of total budgeted group costs, and we
anticipate that our level of retainers and this source of revenue will show a
significant increase by the year end. Our increasing base of retained clients
not only provides a source of recurring revenue but is also a prime source of
transactions.

On 27 May 2004 we announced a placing of 65 million new ordinary shares at a
price of 0.7p per share, to raise #441,340 net of expenses. As at 31 December
2003 the net assets of CFA Capital Group plc were #534,000. The impact of the
placing and the small loss in the period, has been to increase the Group's net
worth as at 30 June 2004 to #914,000, creating a sound financial base.

Current trading
We currently have a strong order book both in respect of a number of AIM
flotations and other transactions partially arising through our existing client
base. On the basis that we complete a good number of these transactions, we
anticipate a satisfactory outcome for the year as a whole.

Summary
On 31 July 2004, John Shaw stood down as a Director of CFA Capital Group plc and
all Group companies. John has worked with me for over 10 years and was a founder
shareholder of the Company in 2001. The Board thanks John for his significant
contribution and wishes him well for the future.

The Board also extends its thanks to the entire team for their efforts so far
this year.

draw?scheme=Colourful&startDate=31%2F03%big.chart?symb=uk%3Acfp&ma=0&maval=9&uf=big.chart?symb=uk%3Acfp&ma=0&maval=9&uf=big.chart?symb=uk%3Acfp&ma=1&maval=10&ufbig.chart?symb=uk%3Acfp&ma=1&maval=50&ufbig.chart?symb=uk%3Acfp&ma=1&maval=200&u

ptholden - 13 Oct 2004 16:30 - 1233 of 1892

Yes, bit the bullet at 0.74, so saved myself 0.01p by waiting another 5 mins. Mind you someone else has just flogged 100k so perhaps should have waited a while longer. Not that it really matters, I'm in for two years and by which time, hopefully these prices will be history! Only problem now is that I didn't get as many as I intended so will have to dip in again to have an even number of shares. (Makes the maths easy!)

Regards

PTH

overgrowth - 13 Oct 2004 19:58 - 1234 of 1892

A pleasant rise today folks, gives us a higher low on the chart - higher high tomorrow will set the scene nicely for the anticipated news flow.

There have been a few oblique comments on advfn recently suggesting some sort of deal going on with Dinkie Heel - I remember some time ago they were looking at a management buy out and moving into acquisitive mode (there was an article in Shares around mid-summer, I looked for the article but couldn't find it - a fairly big picture of a ladies heel and shoe in the top right corner - if anyone keeps their copies and fancies digging around).

Perhaps Dinkie are looking at a large placement to fund their acquisitions (they should get it because they've recently turned back into profit) - if so that will be another "nice little earner" for CFP.

EWRobson - 13 Oct 2004 23:50 - 1235 of 1892

pth

So this is where you are putting the new money rather than ASC! In fact, the spread was wide for most of the day (why?). Then the MM bought 1M shares at 5.02 (post delayed), selling twice for a total of 714K at 0.68p before the spread was then restored. Bad luck but interesting to observe the MM tactics. I bought 690K a few days ago at 72p and considering switching some more funds in , so it is helpful to see your comments re the charts. The quoted spread normally seems relatively large but the offer and bid prices can be much closer.

Sorry about the golf, but terrific to start off with 5 pars, especially as it was probably tipping down. Played in the senior's invitation yesterday at Dale Hill(4BBB) - nice tumbler for 4th place, but one of the highlights of my golfing life was on the 14th: firstly, won a little rotating clock (you can rotate it if you don't want to look at it) for the longest drive (never done that before as I'm hardly a large chap), then bounced the second shot along a path to the left of the green before getting a super kick to the edge of the green before holing my putt for a birdie three for four points (first stroke hole so would have been 3 nett 1 for 5 points as I'm off 19 if we hadn't been playing off 3/4trs handicap). Sorry to bore the non-golfers; and the golfers too for that matter.

Only other question at the moment is: why does Thesaurus have to post his information 3 times - I know it was good news, but...

Eric

overgrowth - 14 Oct 2004 00:16 - 1236 of 1892

For anyone interested in TA, here's an extract from an enlightening post made tonight by Carchase on advfn:

"So we have finally arrived at the door that matters. We are going into tomorrow with a lot of things on our side.

First of all we are ahead of all the Moving averages. Take your pick! In terms of Candlesticks we have engulfed the whole of the previous days trading with an increase in volume and higher closing price.

MACD depending on what you see is either about to go positive or has slightly gone into that territory. RSI has gone positive, and the stocastics have turned up once again. Finally the last of the four I would look at On balance volume has moved up too.

This tells me that CFP is now ready to begin the move to 0.9p with a bit more conviction than at anytime for a while."

For anyone who thinks this is complicated - scroll up to read Eric's golfing account lol!

ptholden - 14 Oct 2004 07:49 - 1237 of 1892

OG :-)

Nice to see that someone else agrees with my TA. All CFA has to do today is get some positive volume.

Eric

The quoted spread on this share is always a joke, which is why I don't take much notice of the Buys and Sells on the Stockwatch. If I do, I look at the timings very closely to try and determine exactly what is going on. Doesn't help though when the MMs are allowed to delay reporting of trades of a certain size. I keep watching, although it doesn't really matter as I am here for the long term!!

Well done on the Golf, always nice to win something. I think my game went to bits when I reached the Sixth, 320 yd Par 4 and both myself and partner drove into bunkers just in front of the green. I was so surprised I nearly drove a Par 4, I couldn't get out of the bunker and ended up taking a scrappy six. Talk about this game being all in your head. Downhill from there I'm afraid!!

Regards

PTH

slmchow - 14 Oct 2004 18:14 - 1238 of 1892

This for Sue Helen to update the header

John Shaw left CFP in the summer to take up directorship of another company

"Agincourt - 14 Oct'04 - 13:46 - 806 of 842

Re: John Shaw

On 23 July 2004

He was appointed a director of:

Chatsford Corporate Finance Limited

Incorporated 12 May 2004"

slmchow - 14 Oct 2004 18:16 - 1239 of 1892

From STN bb

"Auntie Sandra - 14 Oct'04 - 10:05 - 477 of 478


It appears that SHG Golden & Silver have renegotiated their relationship with the local authorities which may pave the way for getting a mine operational shortly.

Reports are that it the site may contain 50,000 tonnes of Gold Ore - but at what grade I do not know.

This was reported on the 29th September on a local Russian news site

http://pr.kg/news/040929allinformationfro.php

Feel free to refine the output of the online translation tool found at http://www.worldlingo.com which translated the story

"The Israeli mining company comes into Kyrgyzstan

One million seven hundred thousand dollars must invest into theindustry Of kyrgyzstana the Israeli mining company "S.H.G. GOLDEN & SILVER Ltd ".
This sum is determined by the recently signed agreement "about thecontract modification of buying and selling" between the company andby the state committee Of kyrgyzskoy republic on control of the stateasset, concluded as early as 1998. The need for changes was caused by reprofiling the initially outlinedproduction from the rare-earth (in connection with the stoppage ofbasic shop on AO "kyrgyzskiy chemicometallurgic plant") to thatprospect golding. In all at the gold-extracting factory AO Of "ak-Tyuz" alreadypererabotano of approximately fifty thousand tons of ore. Besides the development of production, company "S.H.G. GOLDEN & SILVER Ltd "is rendered aid to the population Of ak-Tyuzsettlement. For the next two years it will put for the organization of thenourishment of schoolboys, the material aid by poor, the restorationof the vital objects of the social designation (school, store,hospital, bakery) of four million catfishes (95 thousand dollars)."

If SHG are still the target acquisition, as we were told, then it may be on the back of this development that STN relist."

thesaurus - 14 Oct 2004 19:22 - 1240 of 1892

ATTENTION!!!

HAS ANYBODYBODY GOT BARCLAYSSTOCKBROKERS ACCESS!

LOOK AT THE INTRADAY FOR CFP- AT 10 A.M TODAY THERE WAS A SHARP MOVEMENT TO 1P AND THEN BACK TO 0.75. INTERESTESTING. VERY EXCITING. I THINK WE MIGHT GET SOME PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO

ptholden - 14 Oct 2004 20:03 - 1241 of 1892

thesaurus

Bit confused, surely this was a problem with Barclays software?

PTH

thesaurus - 14 Oct 2004 20:40 - 1242 of 1892

i dont think it was but i mean that surely cant be bad news.

overgrowth - 14 Oct 2004 21:22 - 1243 of 1892

thesaurus - as PTH says it looks like a temporary blip with your software which means nothing.

However, on the candlesticks front after strong support fought off the normally bearish effects of the "gravestone doji" we're now treated to a "dragonfly doji" which is a bullish signal confirming support and possibly heralding a move upwards.

All interesting stuff with the old TA, however the real impetus for skyward movement will be the next news of placements/floats.

ptholden - 14 Oct 2004 21:49 - 1244 of 1892

OG,

I think the TA, (I'm not spammed up on Candlesticks), MACD, RSI, MAs are all positive, it justs needs a nudge to get it moving. Volume, although low is quite encouraging, it has been fairly steady for quite a while now. It would be nice if SB would release some news, although I won't hold my breath on that front!

Rgerads

PTH

ptholden - 14 Oct 2004 22:00 - 1245 of 1892

Just putting the TA to one side for the moment, this is probably the best post I have seen summing up CFA. Credit goes to SBL form a rival site, take the time to read it all, it crystalises all that is in the public domain.

Regards

PTH

'Outlook

The following was taken from the recent Interims We currently have a strong order book both in respect of a number of AIM flotations and other transactions partially arising through our existing client base. On the basis that we complete a good number of these transactions, we anticipate a satisfactory outcome for the year as a whole. They also stated We currently handling a number of AIM flotations and other major transactions

If you read the last 3 years outlook report this is the most bullish statement given from Steven Barclay who is man known not to count his chickens before their hatched. Earlier in the year there was an interesting interview he gave to ADVFN and its worth going through when you have the time.

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=6770595/

It appears earlier in the year he was in acquisition mode but is now focused on growing the company organically and there is an indication from the interview should someone make the right offer for CFA then they could be up for grabs.

As mentioned I spoke to Mr Barclay when he was in New York and he confirmed to me that he was progressing some potential business for CFA for the current year there. This statement to me appears more then meets the eye. I cant imagine any American companies wanting to list in AIM so my guess is that he his talking about possible acquisition of CFP by a major US brokerage or SB attracting US investors into CFP? It's all very intriguing.

Forgetting the if and buts Steven Barclay mention there are some major mandates pending. In September RHPS you tipped Dinkie Heal whom CFA are nominated adviser to. If there is a possible 10 million fund raising are CFA raising the funds and could this be one of the major deals in the pipeline they mentioned? There is a good indication that commission for fund raising is normally 2% to 5% but they sometimes have to pay out sub commissions. This being the case a possible fund raising of 10 million pounds could be worth between 400K 500K in fees and every 250k of profit is worth 1p alone to the share price. I would be fascinated to know more and this one deal alone could hugely be significant to the current value of the share price. Then again it would not be the end of the world if this proves to be a red herring as they are busy with major projects.



Fundamentals

Turnover for the period in the latest Interims was up 95% to 510,000 (6 months to 30 June 2003: 262,000 from continuing operations) Losses before taxation of 58,000, (loss 6 months to 30 June 2003: 208,000 from continuing operations) Although this is an significant improvement its worth bearing in mind that CFA would have achieved profit if it was not for the fact they had to incur significant costs for two floatations that floated in the second half of the year where we can look forward to revenues of 225,000 generated in the same period

Net assets are worth 914.000 with 610,000 in cash.

If fixed costs stay largely the same for the second year of say 600K add the loss of 58K and we already have 225K turnover to play with. Their annualised recurring income currently totals over 340,000 representing approximately 30 per cent of total budgeted group costs, and CFA anticipate that their level of retainers and this source of revenue will show a significant increase by the year-end. This should generate at least another 150K for H2 with further pending mandates, which takes the turnover to 375K. This means they would need to generate another 283k of turnover to break even.

CFA would generate their biggest fees in floatations add their transactions fees plus fund raising and it would be possible 2nd half revenue could be quite signifcant with their current workload.

There is also the suspension of Setstone where CFA own a considerable amount of shares. Once they are re-listed into an exploration company, it is expected that the share price could rise very quickly.

Judging by the clues we have in the Interims there is a great chance that the company would generate a significant profit for the full year especially if major fund raisings are confirmed.


Conclusion

One of the main reasons I invested in this company was due to Steven Barclay reputation. While he was running Seymour Pierce he managed to turn the share price from 1p to 1.40 during his time. With his wealth of experience and drive I get the feeling that as his approaching retirement he wants to go out with one last bang.

The AIM market is buoyant which is even attracting foreign companies to join AIM. Now that the Summer Lull has passed activity has picked up again and CFA are sure to be winning more clients within the next 3 months.

One advantage in this type of sector is that CFA have a habit of not publishing an RNS every time they win a mandate. As long as investors keep a sharp eye on the activity of their clients, this will give them the opportunity to buy into CFA should good news be announced before the MM get wind of such information. This is the pattern that I have noticed this year.

If there ever is a business model, which is easy to grasp, in a safe sector, and a good bet to double your money in the near future then Im confident CFA fits the bill.

Positives

We already know that there is 225k of turnover for H2
Bullish outlook and strong order book
Recurring revenue of 340,000 continues to grow
Recruiting new staff to cope with volume of work
Investments of 100K which could grow
CFA prices are competitive and their reputation is spreading in the City
Easy to understand fundamentals and transparency
Booming IPO sector
Steven Barclay has a solid reputation
Good chance that a larger fish will bid for CFA.


Negatives

Under a penny type stocks could put off potential investors
Costs may increase due to hire of new staff
Market conditions could deteriorate
Departure of Director, John Shaw
Big Spread
No brokers report'

overgrowth - 14 Oct 2004 23:44 - 1246 of 1892

Loads of great info. there PTH, and all the proof we need that we're investing in a gem of a company.

Roll on the expected newsflow and then we'll really see some action!

EWRobson - 15 Oct 2004 00:12 - 1247 of 1892

That is a good and well balanced presentation - even bringing out some negatives. Mind, these are not substantial: we know that the AIM market is going places. One point re the US visit: my reading would be that this was for AIM related business. Why should Barclay want to sell out at this stage when he is probably just about to go round the bend of the economic-S curve - isn't he building his retirement nest egg? An example of a US company on AIM is Akers Biosciences which is on my watchlist. They listed on AIM because of the ease of the process compared with Wall Street. So the later comment about the attraction of AIM to overseas companies is valid. CFP must be extremely well placed to pick up such business because of Barclay's reputation from Seymour Pearce.

Pulled pth's leg re his seeking support for the ASC Challenge Portfolio in which he has nominated CFP as being the first to double. Funny enough, I agree there must be a strong likelihood and have added to my holding today. Main reason is the current cap of 4.3m which does seem ludicrous in the light of some of the numbers being talked about above. It may not happen for a while yet, as it needs some really positive newsflow, but when the break comes it is likely to be dramatic. If the newsflow is really positive, there is bound to be very significant buying demand and existing holders will want to hold on, even accumulate. Then, once the cap is through 10M it will become more respectable for the institutions; again the Seymour Pearce reputation will be a big comfort. Hoy, I didn't mean to write it us so positively because I don't want anyone to jump the gun - it must be the effect of watching a hugely enjoyable production of Absent Friends followed by a good curry.

Eric

bosley - 15 Oct 2004 09:17 - 1248 of 1892

pth and ewr , thanks for your great analysis. not that up to speed on analysis , still learning the ropes. i have taken an interest in moi. could you have a brief look at the charts please. just read the final results and it seems to me to be a company at the starting blocks of a recovery. the chairmans statement is almost inspirational. thanks.

EWRobson - 15 Oct 2004 14:41 - 1249 of 1892

Just topped-up with another 450K at 0.67p. Shown of course as a sell on Stockwatch. On this basis, at least 1,000,000 of today's trades are buys so it is pretty well 50/50.

Excellent article in IC today on the AIM market. Market having 'a cracking year; an average of 23 companies are joining the market each month. Lists 40 companies which have grown over 500%. From CFP view-point it is a win/win situation. A share of an ever-increasing client base. Potentially significant investment funds, once it is perceived as one of the winners. Will probably go on building up an overweight position as opportunities come along to take profits on other holdings.

Eric

ptholden - 15 Oct 2004 15:21 - 1250 of 1892

Eric,

Not that it really matters, but you are right about the sells/buys, well at least this afternoon, I know cos the 8300 odd is mine. I like things tidy and wanted a nice round figure.
I am not trying to be clever after the event, but I do get a feeling there is possibly quite a big seller in the background, offloading on a fairly regular basis. It is certainly stopping the value getting any momentum, but there will come a time when he/she has no more to sell. I wonder what John Shaw has done / is doing with his shares?

Regards

PTH

ptholden - 15 Oct 2004 16:44 - 1251 of 1892

Eric,

Are you posting as Pareagle on ADVFN, if not, someone is using your latest post as their own.

PTH

EWRobson - 15 Oct 2004 16:47 - 1252 of 1892

PTH

No! Not a pseudonym, so its plagiarism. Can't see its a problem if its spreading the good news and encouraging other investors.

Eric
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