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MEDICAL MARKETING, A Speculative Punt That Might Reap Rich Rewards (MMG)     

goldfinger - 01 Sep 2004 15:33

This ones a heck of a specualive investment but it seems that the institutions are willing to stomp up the cash to back it in the long term.

Heres the latest news from Killik stocbrokers on the company..........

MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture

We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.

Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.

This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)

The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million. ENDS.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 12 Apr 2005 16:44 - 1242 of 2444

Blimey. Cant see what they have done wrong though. Surely its Peel Hunt and their ex- analyst who should be investigated?.

cheers GF.

mickeyskint - 12 Apr 2005 16:53 - 1243 of 2444

I agree GF. EK was doing what he always does, even though I think it despicable.

MS

goldfinger - 12 Apr 2005 23:07 - 1244 of 2444

We just have to accept shorting and get on with it Mickey. They have been there from year dot. I must admit I dont really like it and nobody as ever yet convinced me we need it.

cheers GF.

hlyeo98 - 13 Apr 2005 07:17 - 1245 of 2444

GREAT news...this will burn EK's ass!

Medical Marketing Int'l Group PLC
13 April 2005


For Immediate Release 13 April 2005


MEDICAL MARKETING INTERNATIONAL GROUP PLC

FURTHER PATENT GRANT FOR MMI'S GENVAX


Medical Marketing International Group plc (LSE: MMG), the Cambridge, UK-based
pharmaceutical development company announces that it has received a notification
of intention to grant in Europe for a patent covering immunostimulants for DNA
vaccines. The new patent further strengthens Genvax's portfolio of
immunostimulant DNA vaccines.

Notification of intention to grant of new European patent for DNA vaccine
EU patent for tetanus toxin DNA vaccines already granted
Preliminary results for first clinical trial already announced
Three further trials ongoing and others planned for 2005

Genvax, a joint-venture between MMI Group and scientists at Southampton
University was formed in January 2004 to commercially develop DNA vaccines for
cancer and infectious diseases. On 22 March 2005 Genvax announced that it had
reached agreement with Cancer Research Technology, the commercial arm of Cancer
Research UK, under which Genvax acquired the exclusive worldwide rights to
intellectual property surrounding the DNA vaccines, including a European patent
for the use of tetanus toxin constructs for vaccines. This patent was entered
into the Register of European Patents in November 2004. Today's announcement
concerns a further patent that protects the use of other immunogenic stimulants
to treat cancer.

On 22 March 2005 Genvax also announced that Professor Freda Stevenson, Research
Director of Genvax, had presented preliminary results for a clinical trial
involving the use of the DNA vaccines in 25 patients suffering from follicular
lymphoma. The announcement also noted that MMI had agreed to invest further
funds into Genvax to progress the commercialisation of the cancer vaccines. This
investment would also increase MMI's stake in Genvax from 50% to 58%.

Commenting on today's news, Mark Burton, Technology Manager at MMI and Technical
Director of Genvax said: 'Given the clinical results from the lymphoma trial
which has been principally supported by The Leukaemia Research Fund and Cancer
Research UK we are delighted that we are able to show investors that we have
further strengthened our patent position in this exciting field. Working closely
with the cancer charities we look forward to the results of the ongoing myeloma
trials and the prostate cancer trial and to seeing other DNA vaccine trials
start this year. With the National Blood Service we are also looking forward to
developing advanced manufacturing systems and together we all look forward to
improving the treatment of cancer patients as well as creating enhanced value
for shareholders.'

Chiva20 - 13 Apr 2005 09:18 - 1246 of 2444

It's struggling with this 200p resistance, would be nice to see it march through today.

mickeyskint - 13 Apr 2005 10:16 - 1247 of 2444

I think it will bounce between support and resistance points untill May when we are due more news.

MS

goldfinger - 13 Apr 2005 10:40 - 1248 of 2444

Good news. Yes I think we will see a lot of volatility with this one until the biggy news late this month or early next.

cheers GF.

mickeyskint - 13 Apr 2005 15:30 - 1249 of 2444

Looks like EK might have over stepped the mark. From the other place. Please note I've grabbed the header this time. Don't want to dent anyone's ego.

harry punter - 13 Apr'05 - 04:38 - 4820 of 4867


my dear simon --informed city sources and brokers are very concerned about a fresh sfo enquiry currently underway into your contentious share dealing and business activities ---unlike the fsa -the sfo do have the powers to investigate and arrest non regulated punters in the public -who carry out unregulated business -- have been now fully alerted by peel hunt about an illegal share dealing ring currently in operation and are investigating yourself and others --looks like spotted dick and custard and 23 hour a day bang up for you --and a quick jog around the exercise yard if your a good boy --
be careful in the showers though simon as half the inmates because of you may have done there bollocks on being long and not short---

regards harry and the boys in dark glasses

MS

goldfinger - 13 Apr 2005 16:18 - 1250 of 2444

LOL, hes still in short though but must admit he was very withdrawn on his comments on the board today. Hmm.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 13 Apr 2005 16:22 - 1251 of 2444

Getting a late run upwards, NICE.

cheers Gf.

049balt - 13 Apr 2005 16:34 - 1252 of 2444



This is from Mike Walters excellent site. Read and enjoy.



Waandering Star

Has our Gazza retired hurt, limping off to the quack with a fractured forelock after bashing his brains against Medical Marketing International (MMG)?

Who can say? In the nasty netherworld of stock bashers, bullies and shorters, we rarely see more than a shadow of the truth, glimpsing just a fleeting fragment of what is really happening as it flashes behind the backs of the massed regulators in their gilded docklands towers.

Forgive me this indulgent opening. But there will be many ready to join in a satisfied chuckle at speculation that KBC Peel Hunt analyst Gary Waanders might be leaving the firm. The stories come in the wake of two extraordinary reports which served to provide cart loads of ammunition for those who could not countenance the remarkable recent rise in MMGs shares from 80p or so to touch 300p a couple of weeks ago.

Gaz got it wrong in the eyes of many, drastically wrong. It was clear from the very beginning that he had not spoken to the company, and there were errors galore in it. It was also obvious that this was fodder for the usual wrecking crew to join him in assaulting the share price (see my bulletin board comment That Peel Hunt note on March 25). Time and again on our board, I warned that the note carried many errors and should not be taken too seriously (see Factual errors and false markets on the board April I).

Because of pressure of work, the complex nature of the science, and my reluctance to give greater publicity for something so far out of whack, I have been slow to talk about it in detail. The regulators discourage the circulation of many broker research notes to private investors, so the actual reports have not been published on the internet. Most have had simply to rely on assertions by the shorters that Waanders did a good job in estimating that the shares were worth 40p or less.

That is arrant nonsense, of course. Claims from the shorters that Waanders had produced a smashing or excellent sell note, with comments written in a balanced and reasoned manner were always outrageous. They came from sources who appear never to have raised the matter with the company and were ill-equipped to make any such judgement, relying only on a greedy gallop to damage the share price.

It was always astonishing that someone from a house like KBC Peel Hunt should produce a savage attack without first discussing the complex science with the company. Quite why any analyst should produce such a report out of the blue is unclear. On the face of it, anyone judging the value of MMGs research so scathingly must have sent a shudder through other research-based businesses where KBC Peel Hunt is broker.

Once the shock of the initial report was in the market, touted to all and sundry on the internet by shorter Evil Knievil and his tip sheet cronies, it was still more of a surprise that Waanders did not reconsider. Instead, after meeting the company and discussing his first note, he effectively retracted many of his key negatives not by owning up, but by re-stating his position without withdrawing his extraordinarily low valuation.

Closer analysis, though, makes it clear that he recognised that much of the ground on which he had based his original attack had shifted from beneath his feet. Indeed, anyone reading the second note, dated April 7, might almost conclude from his text that he was about the recommend the shares.

It is worth dealing with a few particulars, bearing in mind that the first March 24 (Waanders One) version was one and a half pages long, while the follow-up (Waanders Revised) spans nearly five pages.

Look first at Genvax, where Dr Freda Stevenson and the team at the University of Southampton appear to have achieved a breakthrough in developing DNA vaccines in the treatment of cancer.

Waanders One (W1) talks about some cause for concern regarding commercial development, and goes on to raise queries about intellectual property and such. W1 moves from may well be patentable but significant prior art exists in a number of closely related fields to confident that the company will be able to protect and defend its IP in Waanders Revised (WR).

In W1, he appears to confuse ownership of patents for delivering the vaccine (Vical has one) with ownership of patents for the vaccine. He suggests in W1 that technology rights have been licensed by the likes of Merck, Pfizer and others and in WR acknowledges that there would be no problem for Genvax we would not expect MMG to have any difficulty in obtaining a licence and we do not believe the terms of such a licence would be onerous. That effectively says that there should be no great obstacle to commercial viability on the IP front, and that obtaining the necessary licence is not an obstacle to raising value.

In W1, he implies that MMG may be hiding something, asking assuming the results and the potential were so significant, why has MMI not invited analysts to a presentation? In WR, he climbs down the company has, correctly, deferred full publication of the trial results to those organisations (the cancer charities which financed the research).

W1 suggests the market is small. WR changes tack, admitting the main commercial focuswill be the development of vaccines for broader cancer application such a prostate cancer or gastrointestinal cancers (stomach and colon) In fact, these cancers represent huge markets with massive unmet needs so the original statement was wrong. He admits as much in WR, saying Gastrointestinal cancers and prostate cancer, by virtue of the number of cases, represent much more significant potential market opportunities.

Attempt W1 looks at certain vaccine types and says from a commercial product point of views and manufacturing, this is a nightmare. In WR, he backs down, talking of the potential size of the market and potential manufacturing issues facing these bespoke vaccines, which we have learnt, are not insurmountable.

In W1, he mentions CEA carcino-embryonic antigen and dismisses the Genvax research, saying there is plenty of prior art on the antigen and its use in a cancer vaccine would effectively queer the commercialisation pitch. In WR, he crawls out of the wreckage, muttering This body of knowledge should not be considered negative because the company should still be able to obtain protection for its IP concerning the specific fusion protein combination of CESA with tetanus toxoid fragment.

He goes on in W1 to suggest that the vaccine platform holds little commercial value due to prior art concerns and market strategy This conclusion appears to be rendered invalid in his WR follow-up.

Looking at his assessment in W1 of Oncosense, the company which is developing ruthenium compounds as a possible treatment for cancer, along with a pineapple extract, he initially talks about Early development stage. After talking to the company, in WR he realises that it is much further advanced, and says The company has selected three compounds.

He suggests in W1 that it will be probably 1 year before clinical trials could be started. In WR, he admits they could proceed into Phase I/II this yearearlier thanwe had expected. He also talks of development hurdles which will be substantial given the more stringent regulatory regimes in place today, then in WR admits MMG has been advised that it only needs to complete short (2 week) toxicity studiesbefore it can proceed in human clinical studies. He also in WR talks about a conventional path through clinical development that should not be more onerous.

In W1, he talks about competing against drugs which are effectively generic and where substantial competition exists in the market, while in WR he backs down, and talks about targeting cancers where current treatment options are limited or non-existent, notably lung cancers an obviously large market opportunity.

I apologise if this is too detailed, and might sometimes seem to be splitting hairs. It is obvious that those who wish to denigrate the company can wave all such things away as fine, irrelevant detail. Anyone, though, who wraps a towel around their head and sits down to compare Waanders One with Waanders Revised will be aware there are substantial differences in the comment.
They might wonder why, in the light of new facts revealed to him by actually talking to the company, he has not revised his niggardly assessment of share value, something which continues to play into the hands of his apparently blindly devoted chorus of sceptics and short sellers.

It is right for all to acknowledge that setting valuations of such companies is notoriously difficult. Time and again I have warned of that. Most drugs do fail in the course of development, and some fail even after getting to market. So it is possible to take a totally negative view, and prove correct.

Normally, though, the market weights probabilities and possibilities. Other analysts who have looked at Medical Marketing have come to more optimistic valuations than Waanders. He is entitled to his opinion, and we are all entitled to wonder whether he is still working as an analyst at KBC Peel Hunt and if not, why not.

Toodle-pip!

I hold shares in Medical Marketing.

Ends

rob308 - 13 Apr 2005 16:49 - 1253 of 2444

Does anybody here subscribe to Mike Walters site and if so is it worth joining?? Any comments would be greatly welcome as I am thinking of subscribing........ many thanks. Rob

Roro - 13 Apr 2005 16:50 - 1254 of 2444

thanks for posting that. Most enjoyable reading

049balt - 13 Apr 2005 16:52 - 1255 of 2444

rob I subscribe and it is well worth the money, very good bb, a good place to be.

goldfinger - 13 Apr 2005 17:04 - 1256 of 2444

Superb read we could have done with that a couple of days ago though 049balt. Should see a big reversal in the companys SP now, onwards and upwards I say.

Good stuff for getting hold of it.

cheers GF.

paul1812 - 13 Apr 2005 18:05 - 1257 of 2444

rob308 - I subscribe to both Mike Walters and t1ps sites. You need to do your own resurch on these sites because the site that matches your trading habits may not be the same for everyone. Although the stop loss section on MW site is very good advice, imho and it's free.

Paul

rob308 - 13 Apr 2005 18:16 - 1258 of 2444

Many thanks paul & 049balt.
I have been getting a bit stagnant lately in my trading and just need some new ideas to liven up a bit
cheers Rob

049balt - 13 Apr 2005 18:21 - 1259 of 2444

rob, I have been buying DAG and CRA, watch this space!!

rob308 - 13 Apr 2005 18:25 - 1260 of 2444

I have been watching dag for sometime and am waiting for a suitable buy opportunity, i will take a look at cra..... thanks

049balt - 13 Apr 2005 18:41 - 1261 of 2444

rob do not wait much longer with DAG.!
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