cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
tomasz
- 28 May 2013 09:49
- 12421 of 21973
16% of time
HARRYCAT
- 28 May 2013 12:56
- 12422 of 21973
For those worried about a big correction or a 'go away' sentiment, most of the broker notes I have seen are bullish about equities at the moment and are not predicting a dull summer of trading.
Below is a summary of the Morgan Stanley take on things:
"Latest developments point to more modest and volatile returns in 2H vs 1H. We do not believe the recent weakness in equity markets is likely to morph into a material correction in stocks, although it does highlight the risk that equity returns are likely to be more modest and volatile in 2H13 than 1H13 as markets increasingly focus on the prospect of liquidity withdrawal.
Sentiment remains somewhat elevated. We believe that recent equity weakness should predominantly be viewed as deflating a short-term overshoot in equity prices at this time, rather than more fundamental concerns. For example, Europe’s RSI hit a high of 78 and the FTSE All-Share registered an unprecedented 12 consecutive days of price rises in the run-up to last Thursday. While we do not believe investors are excessively optimistic, some of our sentiment metrics still remain somewhat elevated and hence may have a little further to unwind in the short-term.
Valuation undemanding – MTI is in buy territory. On headline 12m PE multiples European equities do not look particularly cheap (MSCI Europe trades at 12.5 and the median stock is at 14) however neither do we feel they are overly expensive. More supportive for European stocks is the fact that our MTI is in buy territory and the dividend yield remains above the credit yield.
Fundamental growth outlook should improve going forward. Most importantly for stocks, we think the fundamental macro backdrop is going to improve in the coming months and we look for Europe’s economic surprise index to start rising soon. Although a weaker-than-expected China PMI appeared to be the focus of markets last week, we did see German and French business sentiment indicators improve on the upside. European earnings revisions also troughed last week.
Shortie
- 28 May 2013 13:44
- 12423 of 21973
If what the brokers wrote actully came true we'd all be lying in the sun..
cynic
- 28 May 2013 14:56
- 12424 of 21973
bit the bullet on Dow short and reversed
still, can't call it right the whole time, and so far this (fiscal) year, have done very nicely
Balerboy
- 28 May 2013 15:19
- 12425 of 21973
how about your asos short??
cynic
- 28 May 2013 15:43
- 12426 of 21973
thought about closing it, but have left it to run ..... it's not doing much damage, though it does tie up a lot of margin
goldfinger
- 28 May 2013 17:11
- 12427 of 21973
halifax
- 28 May 2013 17:22
- 12428 of 21973
keep an eye on German economic numbers out soon.
cynic
- 28 May 2013 19:03
- 12429 of 21973
well i sure look to have lost my touch - at the moment!
HARRYCAT
- 29 May 2013 08:45
- 12430 of 21973
Can't believe after such a good day yesterday it's all gone backwards today! Profit taking & ex-divi day I suppose?
skinny
- 29 May 2013 08:47
- 12431 of 21973
Ex div very small this week - less than a point!
More likely the China growth IMF downgrade.
hilary
- 29 May 2013 12:03
- 12432 of 21973
If you're looking for answers, I think you need to look at what Amari said to the market a week or so back. Ditto the effect that Kuroda had when he spoke back in April.
I would guess they're trying to slow the rally to stop Japan's trading partners from throwing their toys out the pram.
hilary
- 29 May 2013 12:09
- 12433 of 21973
And, like normal, it's in the chart.
USDJPY - lower highs, lower lows
cynic
- 30 May 2013 07:41
- 12434 of 21973
if you're a smart and alert cookie (unlike me in the last few days!) there's a lot of money to be made especially in trading Dow .... that particular index has made the apocryphal whore look positively restrained!
skinny
- 30 May 2013 11:32
- 12436 of 21973
Big spike on the DOW & Nikkei.
cynic
- 30 May 2013 17:06
- 12437 of 21973
what a very strange day .... dow hopping around like zebedee, and some unexpected gains and losses in other areas ..... overall, not much change
cynic
- 31 May 2013 09:03
- 12438 of 21973
DOW
yesterday cash opened at -50; during the day at one point it was +90; closed +20
today cash opened +10; currently -62
impossible to read
goldfinger
- 31 May 2013 09:15
- 12439 of 21973
If your trading indicies you should be looking for that kind of volatility cyners. Its sheer heaven to an index trader.
I wouldnt mind but yesterday you were preaching on about all the opportunity the Dow presented at the moment. (chart attack thread)
Think youve lost a lot recently and have a tired mind.
Never trade with a tired mind.
Id take a short break cyners and come back refreshed. Do a bit of golfing, itl do you the world of good.
skinny
- 31 May 2013 09:18
- 12440 of 21973
FTSE trending quite well of late - S2 this morning @6595.71 - FTSE touched 6594.23.