< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Cynic, Thats why peeps should always do their own research. But re my statement all i can say `we`ll see`.

Chris Carson and anyone else who missed my earlier post i,'ve added to the header the link for the supply vessel.
cyril

Cheers, niceone, cynic why the negativity? you accused me of being suicidal to even contemplate shorting Afren, you doubting your own judgement now?

not at all chris, but you don't need to do any research (i don't!) to know that blanche's prognostications are pure pipe dream

I'm rather hoping this week we will see the long awaited breakout in which case I'll be adding to my existing position; in any event I'll be adding on any weakness in the region of 95-100p.

cynic ,i'm not sure about the pipe dream re market cap ,remember the early days of Tullow ?

We should get drilling news this week and it's possibly the reason for fridays strength?
cyril

Cynic, No way pipe dream!!!! This will happen, 2.50 sp should see us there. AIMVHO

in for some more first thing....:))

i'll buy into 2.50, though i have no idea if that will get AFR into FTSE 100, but not 100k bopd

From a technical perspective AFR has finally broken out of its trading range of 80p - 107p today. Theoretically 105p - 107p should now provide support although a decent move above today's closing price would help confidence!

Not surprised the support level is rising,what with Okwok into some 27 of 30/35 days drilling along with the supply vessel on it's way(3 weeks?).Once moored and a successful coupling of the U/Cord(tricky op),an extra 20kbopd
for starters should see the SP moving morthwards quite quickly. So in the next 4/5 weeks we will know for sure?
cyril

The data I have recently seen has AFR on an EPS 6.0p & a PE of 18.1 to Dec '10, but an EPS of 20.09p & PE of 5.4 to DEC '11, with no divi payment. My understanding of the PE means that AFR is not expecting very good growth in 2011. Coupled with that, there is no divi to attract investors (income seekers) which makes AFR unattractive to certain types of investors, even though there may be potential in there exploration activities. Maybe the risk/reward ratio is still too high for some?

Harry a divi would be nice and as you state will attract a different investorr,as far as our growth, we have apart from Okwok appraisal (which has 2 *200mbls target),another one planned for later this year and 5 for 2011.
I believe our P/E is vary favourable against such as TLW,so i'm quite confident of an SP in excess of 150p by year end? aimo
cyril

cyril do you know the present location of the "virini prem"?

Harry, I think your post contains some contradictions regarding fundamentals, however, I rely on charts, so I'll let others discuss your comments.

I agree, pth, but 'forecasts' are always tricky. EPS is predicted to increase (forward predicted earnings divided by number of shares in issue) but forward P/E is due to fall (based on projected future figures). The point I was trying to make was that if the PE is 5.4 in Dec '11 the market will rate the company poorly, even though the earnings figure (not profit figure) may be high.
Or have I misinterpreted the figures? Always keen to learn more.

Harry, generally a PE of 12 would be considered fair value for a SP, although this can vary wildy dependant on sector. If AFR has a forward PE of less than 6 this would seem to indicate the SP will re-rate to approx twice the current level; ie, 200-250p. All very simplistic I know!

Halifax the answer is no,although those who have worked out its progress think within 3 weeks(mid Oct),which makes production by Oct end possible?

PTH charts are imo great entry/exit points,but cannot forecast the SP or trading volumes on the result of Okwok etc?
cyril

The company has a 2011 P/E 5.4 but future P/Es could be even lower after the Chairmans statement " It is estimated that Black Marlin will increase the Company's net prospective resource base by 1.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with six high impact exploration wells expected to be drilled through to 2012."
Plus there is also the existing drills which will increase known reserves.
Plus FHN
I don't think there will be any dividends for now as I expect the company to grow - increasing reserves/output
This will fly on news but I am happy to see a steady rise.
CS are in the land of nod with a target of 103p