Morning all,
fatoldgit -The Capt knows his stuff on 3D more than i can let on a wink wink nudge nudge as we say in Geordie land and was in good form with a dry sense of humour.Kickoff is not working at moment but i fear the reason is he has had a mental breakdown hence this attention problem he has and the need to be accepted by people and why I am the target for his aggression .I hope he is getting help.
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/3f64ba28-c93e-11d9-b9f4-00000e2511c8.html
Kevin Goldstein-Jackson: Better to ignore the racing pages
Published: May 20 2005 15:51 | Last updated: May 20 2005 15:51
In the FT last June I mooted whether a political bet might be more profitable than investing in shares. I contemplated a combination bet that both Tony Blair and Charles Kennedy would be replaced before the general election. Im glad I did not make such a bet.
I know a number of regular gamblers. Many of them will comment on their more spectacularly successful bets on horses, but keep quiet about their losers.
Some people start off as modest gamblers: they put 10 on a horse at 5 to 1. It wins. They put their winnings on another horse at 6 to 1. It wins. They then roll over those winnings to another bet at 5 to 1 and win again. Convinced they have great foresight or a magic touch, they put all their winnings plus some savings on another horse at 3 to 1, believing it must be a safe bet. They lose the lot.
They hate losing. So they raid their savings again and bet on a horse at greater odds: 10 to 1. The result: another loss. To try to recoup they raise more cash and bet on a rank outsider at 50 to 1. They lose again.
Now, if these people were hedge fund managers and playing with billions of other peoples money, they would be winners not losers.
If their winners were all in the first one to two years of their trading, the managers would pocket perhaps 20 per cent of all the funds profits as well as enjoying a fat salary.
If the losses in year three then wiped out the entire hedge fund, so what? Hedge fund managers are not required to hand back profits pocketed in earlier years. The hedge fund investors may well not have been aware of the exact nature of the bets made on their behalf.
If the fund had also borrowed many millions for increasingly unsuccessful speculative punts, then it is not only the funds investors who will have suffered but the banks and other institutions that lent that money.
Such fears of potential hedge fund problems around the world make me very cautious of greatly increasing my exposure to the stock market.
Although my self-invested personal pension scheme (Sipp) has a healthy amount of cash I also feel the need to pay much closer attention to the everyday newsflow relating to my Sipps investments.
Recent news has encouraged me to retain some of the investments on which I had contemplated taking profits. For example, in March Bloomsbury Publishing announced 2004 pre-tax profits up by 6.9 per cent to 16.44m. Bloomsburys directors also stated they expected the company to perform ahead of their original expectations for 2005 and now anticipated that profit before tax and goodwill for 2005 would be not less than 20m.
Premier Oil reported in March that its 2004 profits after tax had shown an increase of 57 per cent. The company had an ungeared balance sheet with strong cash flow from production. This year Premier will be undertaking an exciting exploration programme of up to 16 wells in eight countries and would continue to search for attractive new commercial opportunities.
Although my Sipp does not hold shares in Desire Petroleum, I was delighted with Desires announcement on May 12 that recent interpretations of the 3D seismic data of part of its oil prospects in the North Falkland basin had yielded a further five drilling prospects. So far, Desire believes its Falkland oil rights areas have a potential of over 2bn barrels of recoverable oil.
This news was helpful to my Sipps holdings in three companies which also have Falklands oil prospecting interests: Falkland Oil Gas (FOG), Falkland Islands Holdings (which has a share stake in FOG) and Westmount Energy (which has a share stake in Desire Petroleum).