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In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

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http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
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http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Not surprised the support level is rising,what with Okwok into some 27 of 30/35 days drilling along with the supply vessel on it's way(3 weeks?).Once moored and a successful coupling of the U/Cord(tricky op),an extra 20kbopd
for starters should see the SP moving morthwards quite quickly. So in the next 4/5 weeks we will know for sure?
cyril

The data I have recently seen has AFR on an EPS 6.0p & a PE of 18.1 to Dec '10, but an EPS of 20.09p & PE of 5.4 to DEC '11, with no divi payment. My understanding of the PE means that AFR is not expecting very good growth in 2011. Coupled with that, there is no divi to attract investors (income seekers) which makes AFR unattractive to certain types of investors, even though there may be potential in there exploration activities. Maybe the risk/reward ratio is still too high for some?

Harry a divi would be nice and as you state will attract a different investorr,as far as our growth, we have apart from Okwok appraisal (which has 2 *200mbls target),another one planned for later this year and 5 for 2011.
I believe our P/E is vary favourable against such as TLW,so i'm quite confident of an SP in excess of 150p by year end? aimo
cyril

cyril do you know the present location of the "virini prem"?

Harry, I think your post contains some contradictions regarding fundamentals, however, I rely on charts, so I'll let others discuss your comments.

I agree, pth, but 'forecasts' are always tricky. EPS is predicted to increase (forward predicted earnings divided by number of shares in issue) but forward P/E is due to fall (based on projected future figures). The point I was trying to make was that if the PE is 5.4 in Dec '11 the market will rate the company poorly, even though the earnings figure (not profit figure) may be high.
Or have I misinterpreted the figures? Always keen to learn more.

Harry, generally a PE of 12 would be considered fair value for a SP, although this can vary wildy dependant on sector. If AFR has a forward PE of less than 6 this would seem to indicate the SP will re-rate to approx twice the current level; ie, 200-250p. All very simplistic I know!

Halifax the answer is no,although those who have worked out its progress think within 3 weeks(mid Oct),which makes production by Oct end possible?

PTH charts are imo great entry/exit points,but cannot forecast the SP or trading volumes on the result of Okwok etc?
cyril

The company has a 2011 P/E 5.4 but future P/Es could be even lower after the Chairmans statement " It is estimated that Black Marlin will increase the Company's net prospective resource base by 1.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with six high impact exploration wells expected to be drilled through to 2012."
Plus there is also the existing drills which will increase known reserves.
Plus FHN
I don't think there will be any dividends for now as I expect the company to grow - increasing reserves/output
This will fly on news but I am happy to see a steady rise.
CS are in the land of nod with a target of 103p

So income seekers will not invest here, which puts a heavier reliance on the risk taker investors, who will always be more fickle.

It all depends on whether you want to invest in a fast-moving pan-African independent or settle for a 2% dividend.
The company chairman also reported " During the first half of the year we reported net working interest production of 20,397 boepd and we are expecting an average daily production of 55,000 boepd for the full year 2011. This production growth has been accompanied by profitability. We recently reported a half yearly 2010 profit after tax of US$50.7 million, from revenues of US$214.8 million. "
This is a substantial increase in production which as yet not been reflected in share price.

Looking good to me?
cyril


London, 21 September 2010 - At today's General Meeting the Chairman, Egbert Imomoh, opened the meeting with the following statement:

When Afren was formed and first listed in 2005, the vision was, and still is, to build a leading pan African independent Exploration and Production Company of scale. We identified our key priority at an early stage to establish a cash generative platform of reserves and production, upon which we could continue to build and grow. We are achieving this, with production ahead of pre-start up expectations on the Okoro field in Nigeria and the ongoing development of the Ebok field offshore south east Nigeria. During the first half of the year we reported net working interest production of 20,397 boepd and we are expecting an average daily production of 55,000 boepd for the full year 2011. This production growth has been accompanied by profitability. We recently reported a half yearly 2010 profit after tax of US$50.7 million, from revenues of US$214.8 million.

Taking into account the operational and financial profile of the Group today, we now feel it is appropriate to further build the exploration opportunity set within the portfolio. Our growing West African production base can now support a high impact exploration programme. The Black Marlin acquisition opens up a new and exciting core area for us. The Black Marlin team has assembled a high quality exploration inventory, with twelve assets located in Kenya, Madagascar, the Seychelles and Ethiopia. Encouragingly there are proven working hydrocarbon systems in each of the basins, which are characteristically under explored and have the potential to yield large scale discoveries. It is estimated that Black Marlin will increase the Company's net prospective resource base by 1.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with six high impact exploration wells expected to be drilled through to 2012.

East Africa is one of the few remaining true exploration frontiers. In comparison to West and North Africa, where around 14,600 and 19,000 wells have been drilled to date respectively, only around 480 wells have been drilled in East Africa. However, even this modest level of drilling activity has delivered substantial hydrocarbon occurrences in Uganda, Sudan and Madagascar in particular. The remaining potential of the region is tremendous, and continues to attract the interest of a wide range of companies including the Majors, large independents, NOC's and E&P's alike. As the corporate landscape in East Africa further develops and evolves, with competition for assets ever increasing, we feel that Black Marlin provides us with a position of scale in the region, and a unique opportunity for Afren to participate in multiple, potentially high impact exploration opportunities.



J

Looking very strong this am,with over 9m traded on friday (twice the norm)and almost 7m today,drilling news imminent and supply vessel to arrive in the near future,all systems go???
cyril

Cyril, The chart indicates AFR will shortly scoot upwards quite dramatically. I'm certainly hoping for 180-200p by the year end (assuming of course there are no nasty surprises!)

kuzemko - 08 Sep 2010 14:14 - 1204 of 1268
or maybe large funds are buying this stock and brokers with MM are suppling them with the right price.

like i said in above post, looks like i was right.
once the vessal arrives i reckon this will be worth min 3

3 a little opptimistic ,a M/Cap of 2.7billion would be one heck of a jump?
cyril

any one who buys 10% of company at 1.08 must be optomistic and have more information then retail crowd

Not long til lift off!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Happy Happy.

Cleared 105 looks like 110 is the next hurdle.

Could it be that we are now going to see the sp jump ?....the daily penny increase might turn into 3p or 5p a go.....