The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

i may be wrong, but it may be that BG's sale was effectively forced ..... they sure lost a fortune

The FTSE is still failing to break the possible head and shoulders pattern I mentioned some time ago. If it fails to rise soon then the pattern can only be completed with a move downwards. The completed pattern would signal a long term trend reversal (from bullish to bearish).

In my opinion....

Strawbs

Don't say you weren't warned!!!!!


The last time the FTSE100 reached the heady heights of 2007 was in 2000.
The chart below shows what happened then. It took the best part of 3 years before it finally hit rock bottom.
From this, you may well deduce that the recent downturn could well be the beginnings of something that will last a while yet.
My own feeling is that the FTSE100 won't begin to recover again until it has first breached 4800 - sometime next year.

"...few dawns have proved as false at that of January 3, 2001.
That was the last occasion on which the Federal Reserve cut US interest rates by half a point.
Wall Streets response was euphoric: the Dow Jones industrial average surged 300 points, or 2.8 per cent.
But only two months later it had lost nearly 1,600 points, or 14.2 per cent.
Over the same period, the FTSE 100 fell exactly in line."

Read full article here





Wolseley, the FTSE 100 builders' merchant, has warned that there are no signs of an improvement in the US housing market.

Read full article here

Oh it is so good to see the world leaders are leading a crackdown on these juntas...freeze their assets and let the people of Myanmar seize the day. This has been long overdue...the monks should have been out on the streets a long long time ago! Long live Aung Sang Suu Kyi!



US freezes Myanmar's leaders' assets as UN envoy told he will be issued visa - AFX


LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The United States has ordered a freeze on the assets of Myanmar's military leader and 13 other senior officials in sanctions imposed after a violent crackdown on dissents in the Asian nation.

The news comes after Singapore's foreign minister said that Myanmar will issue a visa to UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari, who has been dispatched by the world body's chief to defuse global anger over the violent crackdown in the Southeast Asian state.

Security forces swept through Rangoon, capital of Myanmar, killing nine people including a Japanese journalist, and arresting hundreds more in a brutal crackdown on anti-government protests.

At least 50,000 people reportedly filled Rangoon, undeterred by the deaths the day before of at least four protesters, including three Buddhist monks, and repeatedly defied orders to disperse.

The US asset-freezing announcement came after Bush said the world must press Myanmar's military rulers to end a violent crackdown on protests and urged the junta to cooperate fully with a UN special envoy.

'I call on all nations that have influence with the regime to join us in supporting the aspirations of the Burmese people and to tell the Burmese Junta to cease using force on its own people, who are peacefully expressing their desire for change,' he said in a statement.

Among those designated for sanctions were junta leader Than Shwe, who is minister of defence and chairman of the State Peace and Development Council; Vice Senior General Maung Aye, commander of the army and vice chairman of the SPDC; Lieutenant General Thein Sein, acting prime minister and first secretary of the SPDC; and General Thura Shwe Mann, joint chief of staff and member of the SPDC, along with other senior officials and military officers.

Bush spokeswoman Dana Perino said that Myanmar-bound UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari must be able to meet with 'all relevant parties' including political prisoners and detained democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.

'The world is watching the people of Burma take to the streets to demand their freedom, and the American people stand in solidarity with these brave individuals,' the US president said.

'Every civilized nation has a responsibility to stand up for people suffering under a brutal military regime like the one that has ruled Burma for too long,' said Bush, who made a direct appeal to Myanmar security forces.

'I urge the Burmese soldiers and police not to use force on their fellow citizens. I call on those who embrace the values of human rights and freedom to support the legitimate demands of the Burmese people,' he said.

tf.TFN-Europe_newsdesk@thomson.com

An article from III

http://www.iii.co.uk/

The great bull market of 2008

Ken Fisher 26.09.07

By the time Halloween passes, subprime ghosts, ghouls, and goblins should be starting to be forgotten. About time! Fretting fake credit crunches is futile (see my past column Credit scare is no crunch). Barring another correction down-leg (unlikely, but still possible), US and global stocks seem set for a nicely positive 2007. The FTSE lags global stocks, but don;t despair - US and UK market direction correlate far more than folks fathom. All this subprime fretting and queuing for deposits is blinding bearish Brits to a more fundamental force fueling shares this year. The even better news? The same force makes 2008 likely to be positive for Brits, Americans, and the world.

Lame duck US presidents are great for the markets
What is this fundamental force? A US president in the fourth year of his term - historically a great time for shares. Believe it or not, the US's presidential term cycle is powerfully predictive for shares globally. Line up US, UK, or world market returns since 1926 by the US's presidential terms, and you'll notice the pattern's the same the world over. Front halves have poorer average returns and the greater share of negative years. The third year's best - the US hasn't seen a negative year since the barely-negative 1939. The UK's even better. No negatives since 1931, with a third-year average of 24%. Fourth years aren't as uniformly glorious, but with a 12% average FTSE return and fewer negative years than both years one and two (only one mildly negative fourth year in the last 39 years), it's a fine time for shares.

Fear of legislation
How can US politics impact British shares? Easy, because 'politics' derives from the Greek 'poli' meaning 'many' and 'tics' meaning 'tiny bloodsucking creatures'. In the UK or the US, bloodsuckers are the same - their legislation is simply redistribution of money or property rights. To humans, losses feel two-and-a-half times more painful than gains feel good. When poli-tics pass some dumb law, the losers hate losing way more than the winners like winning. Those not involved fear they'll be hit next. Legislation is rather like witnessing a mugging - it creates outsized fear the next victim could be anyone - including you - eek! Even the fear of legislation is enough to ratchet risk aversion.

The US president is the head tic. Throughout history, any president's party nearly always loses relative power in mid-term elections, even when re-elected. Mr. Tic knows if he doesn't get his landmark agenda (the massive muggings) passed in his first two years, it's less likely in the back half when his supporters get supplanted. History bears this out with few exceptions. Landmark legislation nearly always lands in the first half. Because Americans are likelier to be mugged in the first half, loss aversion increases leading to poorer returns and a greater share of negative years.

Impotent US poli-tics good for UK
The second half's a different story! Stymied poli-tics can't legislate much, therefore lessening loss aversion and leading to happier markets. Third years should see fewer muggings, but fourth years are fine too. This year seems a typical third year - poli-tics babbled and blustered but bore little legislation. And next year looks no different - the less they accomplish, the better it is for you and I!

The US's impotent poli-tics spell good times for UK. Why? Go back to my earlier statement - US and British markets correlate more than folks fathom. At 35% of the world's economy and 50% of its capital markets, the US correlates strongly with the non-US world and Britain. With a galloping global economy, unexpectedly strong earnings, and benign long-term interest rates - stymied US poli-tics should set British shares soaring in 2008...............................................

with markets seemingly calming down, i am coming to the view that BoE will NOT reduce rates this week ...... that being so, how will the markets react? ..... for sure that cannot be good news for any high street company nor, i suspect for the financials (wrong sector for now anyway) ..... but overall? ...... any thoughts?

with Cable ($:) now at 20434, whereas only a week ago it touched 19975 and hovered around 20050, the market is also betting against an interest cut by BoE on Thursday.

Mr B might vote for one, to show some willingness or sympathy for first time buyers, or even the high street which is flat on its back, but that is unlikely.

Meanwhile, Dow has powered through 14000 (currently 14035).

All the above indicates to me that the markets are getting ahead of themselves on both sides of the Atlantic, and a sharp correction could be imminent ...... don't ask me to nominate how great or for how long!!

Dow closed at 14087 up 192 points...is this realistic in this market? I feel a downturn is imminent.

Poor bears have been slaughtered of late havn't they. All these crazy calls of sub 10,000 Dow and the other rubbish........very very wrong so far............

September (according to the historians) is said to be the worst month of the year, well it wasn't this year was it? Still lots of bad news to come out regarding debt in my view so a great deal of caution is required in October.

PP .... Pooh Bears have done very well indeed out of NRK though!

once a bull always a bull! its like being a blue!

oh and why do people go on on about early 2000, didnt something quite horrendous happen in America which will have an obvious effect on the markets or has that slipped some peoples minds.

Yep. george W was elected.

Very true Al .

What has George Washington done to deserve that then? ;-)

Cut down cherry trees, the bloody environmental vandal :-)

You certainly know your onions.... :-)

and what does the W stand for????? (that could be a whole new thread!)

Now that the summer scares have receded into history & the markets are starting to pick up, are those people who were sitting on their hands now looking to invest?
With the FTSE at 6600 & the DOW at 14000 things are still looking reasonably optimistic at the moment, imo, but of course another big scare could set us all back again. Lots of companies now coming up to divi date & with valuations looking reasonable after the summer, there are still opportunities to make money. Some analysts are even suggesting that Tech stocks are now going to be a good defensive play, which is probably stretching it a bit, but going defensive doesn't yet seem to be necessary, imo.

I suspect the the next crisis will be related to overvalued Chinese equities that will also hit commodities